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Schools could reopen in weeks

635 replies

Orangeblossom78 · 10/04/2020 15:21

In todays "Times"

"Schools could reopen in a few weeks as coronavirus restrictions begin to be lifted, Public Health England suggested this morning.

Paul Cosford, the agency’s emeritus medical director, said that easing the lockdown for the young first was being considered as ministers look to set out an exit plan for the coming weeks.

Finding a way out of lockdown is the government’s “number one topic and priority”, according to Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, one of its leading advisers on the epidemic.

Professor Cosford said: “People are doing really well with the social distancing and it is working as far as we can see to flatten this pandemic,” but acknowledged the balance between controlling the epidemic and allowing normal life to resume.

He said that now was not the moment to relent, telling Today on BBC Radio 4: “Once you start getting things under control, that’s the time you absolutely need to continue with all your measures so that you can bring the disease right down and crack it.”

He expects there to be “a lot of discussions over the next week or so” about an exit strategy. Asked if restrictions might be eased in several weeks, he said: “I think several weeks isn’t unreasonable. Let’s hope it’s sooner than that.”

He said that starting by letting the young resume normal life was being considered. “The importance of children’s education, children being in school is paramount. That’s not the only issue but I could conceive of circumstances where some of the restrictions are lifted sooner and some are lifted later,” he said.

“There are some really difficult issues here because if you look at children and the closure of schools, a very important measure to help get this under control, but we do know that children are very low risk of getting serious complications of this disease.”

Professor Ferguson told the same programme that while hospital admissions appeared to be plateauing, “it’s going to be several more weeks before we can definitively conclude anything about the rate of decline and therefore when measures could be lifted”.

He said it was “good news” that more people were obeying social distancing rules than the government expected and said that “measures will be targeted probably by age, by geography” on lifting lockdown.

“There are lots of ideas worth exploring. That’s what’s happening right now. We clearly don’t want these measures to continue longer than is absolutely necessary — the economic costs, social costs, personal costs and health costs are huge.”

Head teachers are lobbying the government to reopen schools before the summer holidays, even for just a few weeks, if scientific advice says that it is safe.

Paul Whiteman and Geoff Barton, the general secretaries of the NAHT and ASCL head teachers’ unions, have told ministers pupils would benefit greatly from schools reopening before the summer, rather than waiting until September.

They believe that even a few weeks of school would help pupils remember what formal learning is like and what is required of them. If schools do not open before the summer children will have been away from the classroom and formal learning for more than five months.

The Department for Education is said to have shown a “genuine interest” in the approach, which would see pupils return for a number of weeks during the summer term to “reacquaint themselves with the educational environment”.

The government has made clear that it is too soon to consider reopening schools after the Easter holidays following speculation that pupils could return as soon as April 20.

“That said, once the scientific advice is that schools can return safely, they should do so, even if it’s for a very limited period before the summer break, as this will allow young people to reacquaint themselves with the educational environment,” the two leaders told Schools Week journal.

However, they warned that any return to normality “has to be a planned one”.

“It can’t be about flicking a switch on a Friday night and then thinking it’s all going to be all right on a Monday morning,” they said.

OP posts:
drspouse · 11/04/2020 22:11

It was said very early on in this situation that children are the main vectors.
Who said this? And is there still evidence to back it up?

pogostick · 11/04/2020 22:19

I skipped straight to the last page so might have missed this as part of the discussion. My brother is in China. Schools are not open yet. They are tentatively opening up but not schools. The reason that young school children are offered the flu vaccine in this country is due to them being spreaders. It’s older children who should start back first.

clicktheadlink · 11/04/2020 22:27

@pogostick I thought that in most parts of china they had started back few weeks ago? Not all areas but most? (I might be wrong)

NotPayingAttention · 11/04/2020 22:31

@drspouse
This was reported in the media early on in the pandemic as it took off in the UK. It hasn't been repeated since, as I guess that it unfairly stigmatised families with young children. However I do believe it to be fairly accurate as children are carriers and spread the disease without suffering too much of the ill effects of it, therefore it is difficult to identify and quarantine infected children. As @pogostick said, this is the reason children are offered the flu vaccine each year.

Willyoujustbequiet · 11/04/2020 22:43

September at the earliest.

I wish a minority of people would stop pushing for reopening its so highly irresponsible. Not to mention selfish. They are inconvenienced by the closure so lets sacrifice the lives of some children, their vulnerable family members and of course teachers.

Beggars belief.

pogostick · 11/04/2020 22:50

Hi @clicktheadlink. My brother is in Shanghai. He works in marketing and as a sideline teaches English. He has just started back at his main job but schools not open yet. He reports a totally different ‘lockdown’ to us. The guard on his flat logged what time he came and went. Those who came into the country and were expected to self quarantine had a piece of tech attached to their door which alerted officials if it was opened more than the permitted once for food delivery or exercise. He feels safe and protected.

pogostick · 11/04/2020 23:12

There are advantages and disadvantages of living in either culture. But one would think twice of defying Chinese authority. I wonder if the efficacy of the Chinese direction led to their low death rate vs population.
There might be someone on here who can work out the death rate per population. The graphs that I look at do not seem to illustrate this.

Rosebel · 12/04/2020 01:25

Schools could have probably gone back after Easter if people bothered to listen to government advice. Sadly as seen on fb today people are still being selfish dicks. At this rate our country will never ever get going again because we can't listen, the government are too weak to have a proper lockdown and the police don't have enough power.
Other countries are returning gradually back to normal because the people there can listen and if they don't the police make sure they do.
Sorry that turned in to a rant. I thought September but now I wonder if it'll be much later.

DippyAvocado · 12/04/2020 01:42

Far more people are complying with the lockdown than the government had anticipated. The latest survey by YouGov and Imperial College London suggested 90% are complying. I don't think we can start blaming people for acting inappropriately, although a small minority are, for lockdown not being lifted. In fact, I think it would be worrying if we start getting into the narrative of blaming average citizens, the vast majority of whom are abiding by the guidelines, in order to increase police powers further.

We are just following a similar curve to countries like Spain and Italy and will have to wait it out until the numbers reduce in a similar way and we get to a point in the curve where it's manageable to contain things by testing and isolation. Italy is looking at smart technology to help isolate cases. I wouldn't be surprised if we are all encouraged to do similar.

drspouse · 12/04/2020 05:31

@NotPayingAttention This is a different disease to seasonal flu though. Young children have symptoms from seasonal flu, that's rare with CV. They are at risk of serious illness with seasonal flu, again very rare with CV.

HoffiCoffi13 · 12/04/2020 06:51

Schools could have probably gone back after Easter if people bothered to listen to government advice

That is not true. School closures that short was never the plan, it would have been useless. From the start the government said school closures would need to be for at least 12 weeks so be worth doing.
It takes around 4 weeks from picking up the virus to death, so we were never going to see the death rate go down dramatically by the end of the Easter holidays. A lot of the people whose deaths are being reported now will have contracted it before lockdown.

HoffiCoffi13 · 12/04/2020 06:53

And as DippyAvocado says, far more people are complying with lockdown than anticipated. They planned for a 50% non compliance rate. More companies have closed than they anticipated (and indeed wanted) too, meaning their furlough bill as 3 x higher than budgeted for, which is another issue in itself!

NotPayingAttention · 12/04/2020 07:54

@drspouse okay that is my point, that children are getting it, but have barely any symptoms. From PP on this thread, it seems a great deal of people think that because children are "safer" to get CV, that it would be safe for them all to mix at school. This is a great theory when it comes to keeping the death rate of the children low, but is bad for the spread of the disease. Think of all the keyworkers' children in there, having it and infecting all the other children. Then all those other children taking it home to parents and out in the community. Schools and their packed classrooms are exactly the reason that children are (were until schools closed) the primary vectors.

NotPayingAttention · 12/04/2020 08:19

As soon as schools go back in their previous format, there will be another huge spike in infection and therefore death rates. We are nowhere near over the worst of it yet and this is a very precarious situation for the government that could really drag on and on, depressingly.
It may be (I really hope) that they will consider bringing back kids in a staggered fashion, maybe bring in one small set of kids for a week, then set work at home for the week after while they get another set in etc etc but it would be pretty impossible to keep up standards of education across the board. I can't even see them doing this for early years kids as social distancing is even more difficult for them.

Bollards21 · 12/04/2020 08:24

Really difficult balance....but they have to err on the side of safety not kids educational progress!

drspouse · 12/04/2020 08:29

children are getting it, but have barely any symptoms.
But that's not the same as the seasonal flu. Children get that and get very sick. So we can't assume the same infection rules apply.

stairway · 12/04/2020 09:08

They will probably open after May half term in London I suspect ( other parts of the country maybe not) a second peak in July August would be better ( schools would shut again for holidays anyway. A second peak in flu season when NHS staff might have lost their immunity would be a nightmare.

Piggywaspushed · 12/04/2020 09:12

Why earlier in London? That makes zero sense.

stairway · 12/04/2020 09:16

London because they are closer to peaking, also economically more important. I suspect many working Londoners have already had the virus aswell.

Fluffybutter · 12/04/2020 09:18

@ Willyoujustbequiet no one is “pushing” and no one can say when the schools will reopen, not even you .
Could be end of May, could be July ,could be January. Who the fuck knows ..

emkana · 12/04/2020 09:20

@Rosebel other countries have less strict lockdowns- eg in Germany you can have friends round for a meal or meet for walks. Even then it's not true that they are all compliant. It's a myth.

Quartz2208 · 12/04/2020 09:27

They have mentioned doing things regionally and a lot of the stats shows that London peaked first and is on the way down. A larger number in a London probably have had it as well
If a piecemeal approach is decided upon London would be the starting point (although it could very much be borough based)

HoffiCoffi13 · 12/04/2020 09:29

Rosebel why do you think all other countries are completely compliant and we’re the only reprobates that aren’t?
I read a couple of weeks ago that Italy had around 1000 arrests and 90,000 fines issues for non compliance. That will be higher now. Spain have had massive issues this weekend with people from Madrid going to their holiday homes on the coast... the roads were jammed. Police were turning them back but then they were going in the middle of the night. My IL’s live by the sea and they’ve had an influx of people from Madrid arriving this weekend.

Rosebel · 12/04/2020 09:30

France, Italy and China are much stricter. And I doubt people in China ignore the rules. I don't know personally but have heard law,enforcement there can be brutal. The thing is there will be people who ignore the rules but I'm sick of seeing people with friends/ on the beach/sunbathing in the park. It makes me think we'll never go back to normal for schools or anything else.

HoffiCoffi13 · 12/04/2020 09:32

It makes me think we'll never go back to normal for schools or anything else

But that isn’t true. Even with 100% compliance the restrictions wouldn’t be lifted any time soon. And Neil Ferguson has said far more people are complying than they expected, which is actually causing issues in itself.