To be worried about Coronavirus part 5

[idontusuallypanic]

Parents here are very upset about kids from Milan being at school today.

There is a (suspected) case in London, a law firm (not in Canary Wharf, near St Pauls) sent its staff home and will review on Monday. .

I didn't think Pope Francis was sick after meeting coronavirus sufferers but he has a cold, anyway.

There is a (suspected) case in London, a law firm (not in Canary Wharf, near St Pauls) sent its staff home and will review on Monday. .

www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-baker-mckenzie-shuts-london-office-after-suspected-coronavirus-outbreak

Motor but dc are super spreaders. One dc will spread to possibly a whole school, who will be looking after the sick dc then?

Or if dc are not sick the sick dp.

I feel slowing it as much as possible now.. To ease winter pressure and give time for the vaccine seems logical.

How long do we have till we see what it's like here

Right.....I've had a little doodle with the stats.

UK- 61,000,000 residents
Tested - 7,000
Positive - 15
Rate of infection - 0.2%

I'll up it to 0.4% for leeway.

So..... If we apply that back out to the whole population.....

anticipated infected 244,000

The death rate is at 3.4%.

Anticipated deaths 8296.

Total deaths for 2018 was 550,000 (ish, no official stats for 2019 yet).

Even if it keeps going at its current trajectory, coronavirus deaths would account for around 1.5% of all deaths in a year. On a par with alcohol-related deaths. Cancer is accountable for around 5%. Dementia and Alzheimer's account for 12%.

It's my worst nightmare the schools being shut. Not necessarily an issue with work. I work from home.

But the thought of trying to do a days work with them constantly bickering.

And would you be expected to keep them indoors. That ain't going to happen. They go stir crazy with one day indoors.

I have a DH who would of course help out, but I can work from home - he can't. And there are many jobs where just shutting things down is not really possible.

Does anyone else feel the net closing?

I have colleagues with family in Buxton they visit most weekends. Dc school shut tomorrow for a clean due to sick child from the region 2. And know and work with other people with almost immediate links to the other places

donbelieveit this graph is interesting

Not sure when Italy were at 16 cases ...

mobile.twitter.com/AlessandroStru4/status/1233092871181479937/photo/1

Ok so I think 21st Feb they had 18 cases in Italy?

Over 200 now, a week later.

The DM is reporting that in the event of Coronavirus overwhelming the UK, treatment of the elderly would be sacrificed. The NHS would plan to treat those most likely to survive.

Grim reading. Wonder what would be deemed as the age cut-off point for elderly too.

Neil Ferguson had a different take on the potential numbers.

But I must say I prefer yours Bernadette.

I have 2 questions:

1. How accurate is the death rate? It can only be applied to those who have been tested right? There may be 1000s more infected people (please correct me, I am asking this as a question)

And 2. How quick are vaccines made for these sorts of viruses usually? Are we talking weeks/ months/ years?
Sorry for the potentially silly questions. I'm really trying to gather information!

The WHO press conference on the 25th mentioned that China is starting to do large scale sereology tests of "unaffected" people including children in an attempt to see how many people had it but were never diagnosed. Results of this will tell us whether children are germ infested superspreaders in regards to Coronavirus and therefore whether or not school closures are necessary.

Where do you get a rate of infection of 0.2% from?

The virus has a probable replication rate of 2-3 (but yesterday that was increased to over 4). So on average every person infects 3 other people.

And the death rate is currently at 8%

She's extrapolating the 0.2% from 15 positives out of 7000 tested I presume

"Hugglespuffed

The WHO press conference stated that they do not think there is much of an "iceberg" of cases. They think this due to the effecitvness of the Chinese containment, believing it wouldn't be possible to achieve the downturn in new cases if there was a large number of undiagnosed cases. This could mean that the Case fatality rates are higher than first thought, but that containment is possible, as demonstrated by the Chinese.

But that's not a finalised figure so that makes no sense at all.

snowdrop That sounds really stressful. Our local secondary school has staff and pupils just back from a skiing trip to northern Italy, and someone I work with also went on a skiing trip in the half term in northern Italy and is now feeling ill (after a few days back at work) so is isolating herself at home. But importantly, no confirmed cases here now, and I’m still a bit stressed! I can imagine you’re feeling it even more

Yeah Bernadette I think the Imperial College suggestion is between 400-500k deaths in the U.K., (worst case) based on 60% of population infected.

I actually just found the answer about a vaccine! Earliest mid way through next year!

The school closure news from Japan is potentially a positive step, but also quite worrying. There’s not a very comprehensive welfare system in japan, so i can’t imagine single working parents will be able to cope easily. Even two working parent households may struggle on an average wage to find childcare or cope with only one parent working.

There are already too many cases there of small children (reception/elementary age) being left alone at home all day while parents work. School closures will only make this worse, but I don’t know what else they can do at this point.

Tested - 7,000
Positive - 15
Rate of infection - 0.2%

That's some first class Mickey mouse accounting there.

Posted by@ OhMargo

"Since the Brexit thread is waning a bit now (was great in its time) the Covid19 is the next big thing.

Bring it on.

Not knocking Brexit thread, it may rejuvenate soon! But in the meantime, in the hiatus, we have this thread.".

Interesting that both these threads seem to be led by the same poster, Red Tothbrush....

I am totally prepared to be shouted at for the above comment I have made, but I do think there seem to be people who love nothing better than making a drama out of a crisis.

Whilst I would not deny the posible seriousness of Covid 19, I do think that this thread does not help much with preparation for the infection and for peoples general anxiety.

Having lived through the 1970's & the threat of nuclear war I am possibly more laid back about this threat - there is little I can do to stop it & winding up levels of anxiety does no good to anyone.