To be worried about Coronavirus part 5

[idontusuallypanic]

Parents here are very upset about kids from Milan being at school today.

I'm worried about disaster capitalism and opportunistic grabs at all of our human rights.

China has done some astonishing things in response to the threat from this virus and no country can afford to ignore what China has learnt. Despite human rights abuses, the WHO are blowing smoke up China's arse because the rest of the world needs continued access to their data. The reason China has such astonishing data is because they are a single party totalitarian state which keeps all of its citizens under very, very heavy surveillance. I don't want that here, I don't want that anywhere, whether there is a pandemic virus or not.

Nevertheless we need China's data.

Everyone should engage their brain and think critically when reading about China's marvellous use of G5 and other tech in fighting this virus. Everyone should continue to question how and why some people manage to massively increase their wealth in times of extreme economic downturn.

In 5 years time I reckon we will have cracked this virus and its management. It will probably still be around but we'll have worked out ways of mostly preventing its spread and we'll have worked out ways of preventing most deaths. But will we still have the right to move around without our government tracking us every step of the way? Will we still have the right to say what we think, even if it's awkward for our government?

magimedi these threads are not led by RedToothBrush.

Can anyone help as I may have missed it!

So if you test negative after a few days of getting back from a place that’s had cases - are you out of the woods OR can it still take take 14 days to show up?

The school closure news from Japan is potentially a positive step, but also quite worrying. There’s not a very comprehensive welfare system in japan, so i can’t imagine single working parents will be able to cope easily. Even two working parent households may struggle on an average wage to find childcare or cope with only one parent working.

On the whole once women have children in Japan they tend to give up work completely or only work a part time job. This is in part due to the lengthier hours men work (compared to the UK) and the pay gap between men and women being substantially larger than in the UK.

Mothers in the UK tend to work more and have better careers by comparison to their Japanese counterparts.

There is much more living with extended family too, with grandparents much more likely to be living with children and grandchildren.

This makes it easier and much more socially viable for Japan to shut schools compared to the UK.

There are more ramifications to doing so in the uk.

That said, the value placed on education in Japan is significantly higher than in the UK, so the decision to close schools will not have been taken lightly at all (also see South Korea on this score).

If they have felt the need to close schools, it is likely that will happen in the UK.

The solution in the UK will end up being extended family, or small groups of families sharing childcare in some way, in an informal way.

I suspect there will also have to be strong measures in place to ensure that NHS staff turn up at work too. Johnson will wheel out his best Churchill impression, before shuffling back to his bunker.

On a personal level, I can well see my neices having a long stay here as both parents are doctors. We will see how it goes...

www.gov.uk/government/news/new-surveillance-system-for-early-detection-of-covid-19

Here's your link for the surveillance testing of non-travelling cases. For the in-hospital testing, I read it as only the intensive care admissions, not everyone with flu-like symptoms.

They may not be 'led' by RedToothBrush but she/he hasn't half leapt in here.

I am an old cynic & I really gained a lot from the Brexit threads that were deffo led by RTB with some amazing insights. But I find it odd/coincidental that the same RTB has leapt onto these threads about Covid-19 & just wonder about her/his motives. Cynically, I suspect journalist.

RedToothBrush has always been and continues to be a clear, cool-headed and informative poster on threads. To suggest s/he is somehow stoking panic and drama is imo ridiculous.

these threads are not led by RedToothBrush.

^ This.

I'm currently unwell and fed up of rain. As soon as I'm feeling better and the weather improves slightly I fully intend to get back to trying to do my garden. Coronavirus or no coronavirus.

IME RedToothBrush is sound on lots of different topics.

It's just some simple calcs, between musings. I'm not claiming it's anything else. I'm not producing official estimates.

I think RTB is good at information analysis and this is a transferable skill that crosses many topics.

I like current affairs. Ultimately coronavirus fall out will lead international politics and economics for the forseeable future. It will influence heavily how Brexit pans out.

Also I'm simply a nerd and its an interesting story. I have posted why this subject is one I find particularly fascinating.

But I don't intend to get as involved on this. Have stuff to do in the real world.

What is the fatality rate? I keep seeing different figures bandied about. If it's only 2% it's not that different to normal flu.

I just have in my head, 1 in six chance pneumonia, 10- 30 x more lethal than flu. If my kid had flu would need medical treatment uses steroids for a cold

Mike and Zara Tindall have just returned from holidaying in the area of Italy that is infected. They have decided not to self-isolate as they don't have any symptoms. I can't believe how stupidly they are behaving

Student where I work returned from her hols in Northern Italy today. No symptoms but had visited some of the affected towns. She did not think to self isolate and it was only because a lecturer intervened that PHE were called and they said she needed to self isolate

I seriously doubt that the British public will accept one rule for one and a different rule for the other.

www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/coronavirus-us-whistleblower.html
U.S. Health Workers Responding to Coronavirus Lacked Training and Protective Gear, Whistle-Blower Says

Team members were not properly trained, lacked necessary gear and moved freely around and off military bases where Americans were quarantined, a complaint says.

In a portion of a complaint filing obtained by The New York Times that has been submitted to the Office of the Special Counsel, the whistle-blower, described as a senior leader at the Department of Health and Human Services, said the team was “improperly deployed” to two military bases in California to assist the processing of Americans who had been evacuated from coronavirus hot zones in China and elsewhere.

The staff members were sent to Travis Air Force Base and March Air Reserve Base and were ordered to enter quarantined areas, including a hangar where coronavirus evacuees were being received. They were not provided training in safety protocols until five days later, the person said.

Without proper training or equipment, some of the exposed staff members moved freely around and off the bases, with at least one person staying in a nearby hotel and leaving California on a commercial flight. Many were unaware of the need to test their temperature three times a day.

and

Similar episodes appear to have happened elsewhere. Employees with the Health and Human Services Administration for Children and Families were also dispatched to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar to help other evacuees from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, someone with direct knowledge of the effort said.

It was the first time to his knowledge that employees of the family administration had ever dealt with a federal quarantine. Employees of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention appeared to have one set of guidance. Other employees of the Health and Human Services Department operated under a different protocol.

The levels of protection varied even while he was at Miramar, he said. Standards were more lax at first, but once people arrived who appeared to be sick, workers began donning personal protective equipment. He is now back at work, and has yet to be tested for coronavirus exposure.

Helena it was the difference between advice for visitors to the named towns in the so called red zone on lockdown and visitors to the rest of North Italy

If there comes a time when the NHS is flooded with so many patients and triaging based on who has a fighting chance of benefitting from their care I suspect complaints about school closures will fall on deaf ears.

The Tindalls were following UK government advice.

@kenandbarbie the short answer is noone knows. It's too soon.

But, when I crunched current numbers a couple of hours ago there were 82757 cases to date with 2817 fatalities. If you assume noone else who has it dies (unlikely) then that gives a fatality rate of 3.4%.

If you assume half of those currently critical die (which doesn't seem unreasonable) then you get a fatality rate of 8%.

The official estimates are 1-4%. Flu has a CFR of 0.1-0.5% depending on the particular strain and who's doing the estimating. So @donbelieveit's 10-30 times more lethal than flu seems about right.

Snowdropdelight I'm not happy to see this run its course. Lots of people will suffer immensely and some will die. It's just that the alternative seems to be to pay lip service to 'containment' and then let it run its course anyway. It's running its course in China despite draconian containment measures.

If it makes no difference to the spread of this virus whether we curtail people's human rights or not then I choose not.

What was the fatality rate for the flu in 1918 out of interest?

2% is 1 in 50. 0.1% is 1 in 1000.

Pretty big difference.

If the spread is slowed down by containment then wouldn't that mean less pressure on health services at one particular time.