To be worried about coronavirus part 4

[idontusuallypanic]

I looked and couldn't see another 4th thread.

I'm personally worried this morning as I've heard that two students ds goes to school with have just returned from Milan where cases have just rocketed.

I'm getting quite anxious now, and I don't usually worry about this sort of stuff. My parents are elderly and both have underlying health conditions. My DH has been in East Asia for work for the last couple of weeks. I've stocked up on stuff at home for me and dd, but can't stop checking for updates and worrying about it all.

@skyjuly - 15

@uptheshard you sent them to school?

Those interested in the asymptomatic vs symptomatic debate in China may also be interested in this report from Japan's National Institute of Infectious Diseases on the Diamond Princess cases. According to the report, as of 20 February (although it may in fact go back a few days, because it is when the sample was taken), 51% of positive tests were asymptomatic:

www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9417-covid-dp-fe-02.html

This is of course among a population of mainly 60+ passengers, who are thought likely to experience the disease more severely (certainly if the death rates by age are anything to go by: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/).

I meant @Skyejuly - she is 15

Sorry, the table may not have come out:

AGE
DEATH RATE*
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

Re the rugby match - it was reported yesterday in the Guardian that it had been or was being cancelled on the advice of health officials, but there was then an uproar from the rugby players and the final decision has not yet been reached I think.

@smellycoat it’s my Dad, I don’t live that close to him either but we are in regular contact on the phone. He is still ill, bad cough. Still no help from 111 or GP so still self isolating at home.

I would not want to go to S.Korea at the present time.

There can only be a specific number of ECMO units surely...

I didn't say that there wasn't a finite number of ECMO patients that can be treated at any one time, but that the numbers can be increased above the usual capacity if necessary and possible due to the other constraints I mentioned.

Are you sure you mean ECMO and not ICU?

Given that ECMO is my job (being general so as not to out myself) then, yes I'm confident that I know the difference.

The number of ECMO machines is only part of the picture - each of the 5 UK retrieval centres will have many more than 1 actual machine, but it also requires highly trained specialist nurses, doctors and clinical scientists to look after the patients on ECMO. To my knowledge no patient in the UK who meets the criteria for respiratory ECMO support has been turned away because of lack of capacity since the service was commissioned following the swine flu pandemic. However, it would not be possible to put large numbers of coronavirus patients on ECMO at any one time. Wales doesn't have its own retrieval centre, however they are covered by the English centres.

It's also worth pointing out that we don't actually know whether ECMO would increase survival of coronavirus patients. The evidence in favour of respiratory ECMO for non-coronavirus ARDS is not conclusive, although I think most of us involved in it do strongly believe that it benefits many of the patients who are placed on it. However, it does appear that being treated in a respiratory ECMO centre increases survival, probably because of the specialist skills in treating these patients. So it may be (speculating here) that these centres will have a role to play in looking after patients even where they do not have ECMO capacity. Obviously this will have a knock-on effect in terms of their other services though.

Canshop I live in Normandy and for now it's all quiet on the CV front. That said, we're still on half term, so that could change. On a plus side, most French people ski in France, so unlikely to be many people returning from Italy... But we're not that far from Paris. I'd assume our situation is similar to the UK tbh. I have a school trip planned for the UK at the end of April, and the return leg of an exchange trip coming to us from Holland at the end of March, so I'm watching closely to see if I need to make any decisions on them. I think I'm going to have parents from Normandy with the same concerns about going to the UK as you have about coming to us... my students are year 6 and 7 though.

Just checked re the rugby - it was the IRFU which made representations against cancellation or postponement. A meeting was due to be held between them and the health minister this morning.

I would let my kids go to France at the moment as they are just as likely to catch it as here. Italy no.

I have a holiday to Spain and Lanzarote in April and May. I figure we’ll know more in a few weeks but not intending to cancel. At this stage, as we’ve seen you can’t tell where clusters will show up. I thought I was safe on a ski trip and then lots of cases showed up nearby. You just can’t tell.

If the Guardian reports are right, doesn't sound like the hotel in Tenerife is in lockdown at all. Guests by the pool and wandering around. Perhaps our foreign office ought to be doing more.

if you're in a hotel with confirmed cases and that doesn't make you self isolate, I can't imagine people are going to self-isolate if they're not being paid by their employers especially if they don't feel too bad.

I think the biggest issue about traveling right now is the potential to get quarantined. I'd rather be isolated at home than in a random hotel with nothing to do.

I found this well researched piece, watch until the end before tearing it apart! LOL!!!!
It throws up some interesting questions and answers:

If the Guardian reports are right, doesn't sound like the hotel in Tenerife is in lockdown at all. Guests by the pool and wandering around.

Yes, I was surprised by this. Thought after the Diamond Princess debacle that lessons would have been learned, but it would appear not.

I heard someone on the news earlier saying that they had had to leave their room because of their kids. I mean, I know it would be difficult to keep young children entertained in a confined space, but in that situation, surely you just find a way of making it work?!

I don't think I would have any of my dc go abroad without me with the possibility that they might find themselves under quarantine away from home.

If I'm on lockdown in a hotel with Air Con then I'd be going to the pool etc. All that recycled air whirling around the rooms renders lockdown useless.

Canshop I feel the same as you, I think she's got an equal chance of catching either at home or France, unless there is a known outbreak in the area immediately before going.

@Welshwabbit - thanks for those stats, I was wondering if that info were available and it's slightly reassuring, because I had gathered it was much more dangerous for older people but wasn't sure what rates were on others.

I think the worst thing is just waiting now and not knowing what’s going to happen. All the evidence suggest it is going to hit, but I wish there was some way to know what it’s going to ‘look like’ and how long serious effects are going to last , which clearly there isn’t. If it were possible to be told ‘Well it’ll build quite fast and within 4 weeks there will be quite a lot of people having the self-isolate and things will be heavily disrupted and shops will run short, but then after another 4 weeks it’ll slow down and things will start to return to normal’ or ‘It’s going to come in waves causing disruption over the next 12 months’ or whatever.

I'm in London, and I've heard it said that you just won't really be able to isolate/contain it here so you'll just likely have to accept you may get it but it probably won't be that bad if you have no health problems that make you vulnerable.

We flew back from Turin at the weekend. School have said the DCs are ok to attend school but due to my job which is with vulnerable people I have to work from home.

On the new today there are now businesses that are closing in Turin. It is above the line on the government map but not one of the quarantined places listed.

DH was ill a week ago, cough etc. We have all been fine so very much doubt it is coronavirus. A 3rd of the people we stayed with last week on holiday had colds, all mild lasting about 2 days.

If you need ECMO your chances of survival are already pretty low from data from a Wuhan hospital.

Therefore the number of ECMO units we have or don't have is going to be of minimal effect.

@FingonTheValiant - thanks, that’s useful information.

I'm.just back from milan. My 2.kids got sent home from school. And I'm sent home from work. We have slightly sore throats. But we are fine!!!
No news on how long we are excluded for.....

You're excluded for 14 days unless told otherwise. I believe that means 14 days after symptoms have ceased. You need to notify 111 to be tested.

The Ireland v Italy rugby match has officially been cancelled (just popped up on my breaking news feed)

Having said that, there are 8 flights from Italy into Ireland daily, and although nowhere would gather crowds the size of those at a rugby match, there'll be huge numbers wandering around museums, pubs, shopping centers etc not to mention those using public transport. I'm just not sure how the virus can really be contained with the amount of tourism there is all around the EU.