To be worried about coronavirus part 4

[idontusuallypanic]

I looked and couldn't see another 4th thread.

I'm personally worried this morning as I've heard that two students ds goes to school with have just returned from Milan where cases have just rocketed.

Sorry ignore last message - the link below is to a part of the conference so no delay.

The whole conference is worth listening to, what China have been doing behind the scenes with big data, AI, etc to contact trace is fascinating...

Ministerial statement

"we expect more cases here"

Do any cynics here think the any members of the goverment have looked at the people most likely to die and considered the affect on the benefit bill.

It would do a lot to sort out housing issues, social care, cost of chronic health conditions and benefits in general in the long term so I do think it has gruesome attractions to a government that has senior advisors into eugenics.

In the short term the panic and economic issues would help support for brexit without political damage. It would also help get support for a more authoritarian government.

The one downside is demographics. The current government is in power due to older voters and its older voters which would be particularly hard hit if we are to look at data available. That has electoral significance.

We are at the start of a new parliament but even so that would require a rather radical shift in direction from where the current government has been headed in the next 5 years. This is the only reason I think the government might be concerned about coronavirus - and whilst I distrust this governments attitude to looking after the public at large, it also can't afford in the long term, to ignore the demographics for its own selfish self interest...

Do any cynics here think the any members of the goverment have looked at the people most likely to die and considered the affect on the benefit bill.

Yep, have definitely considered that. Which is sad, as although not a fan of Tories, I don't think I would have thought that of Cameron or Major.

However, the Tory vote is substantially propped up by the over 50s, so hanging their biggest supporters out to dry doesn't strike me as the smartest move. So I'm leaning more towards the arses/elbows explanation for the apparent inaction.

"clear four part plan

contain
delay
research
mitigate

taking all necessary measures.

enhanced measures at airports and international stations
supported isolation facility at heathrow

NHS testing very large number of people - vast majority negative."

The people in the Tenerife hotel are going to be isolated for 14 days, according to the Guardian’s live feed.

"No special measures while test results awaited for those school pupils being tested. Once results arrive if test negative will make decision on a case by case basis on whether they can return to school"

Interesting. I Googled myself after posting and found this from Helen Branswell:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25/new-data-from-china-buttress-fears-about-high-coronavirus-fatality-rate-who-expert-says/

^“What [the data] support is that sure, there may be a few asymptomatic cases … but there’s probably not huge transmission beyond what you can actually see clinically,” Aylward said.
The claim was quickly challenged by an infectious diseases expert who serves on a committee that advises the WHO’s health emergencies program.

Gary Kobinger, director of the Infectious Disease Research Center at Laval University in Quebec, said it would be highly unusual for there not to be mild or symptom-free cases that are being missed. He pointed to the fact that outbreaks have popped up in countries far from China including Iran and Italy because people with mild infections were not detected and traveled to other places.

“There are mild cases that are undetected. This is why it’s spreading. Otherwise it would not be spreading because we would know where those cases are and they would be contained and that would be the end of it,” said Kobinger, who insisted that mild, undetected infections cannot be ruled out until people who haven’t been diagnosed with the illness can be tested for antibodies to the virus.

Those kinds of tests, called serology tests, are just becoming available in China, Aylward said.^

"will be rolling out wider public health programme"

As far as killing the vulnerable and the eldest, it wouldn't be the easiest and cheapest plan.

Short term pain for a long term reduction in pensions and solution to the housing crisis though.

I would never have even thought about it with any other Govt but this one...

I do believe it will be allowed to spread as population control.
It will take out alot of elderly and disabled/ill people. Just what the Torys would want.

Xpost with red

"working closely with WHO to ensure ready for all eventualities"

"co-ordinating research efforts with international partners"

"public can be assured that we are working through our four part plan"

So re the "iceberg" there seem to be conflicting views. Or am I just clinging to this as hope?

The people in the Tenerife hotel are going to be isolated for 14 days, according to the Guardian’s live feed.

And faster than you can say 'Diamond Princess' I suspect there will be calls to repatriation as Tenerife doesn't have the capacity to deal with 1000 holiday makers getting sick...

@NathanNathan

Yes...they are going to test for antibodies but if you watch the whole conference it's quite clear that while they believe that there will always be some cases missed they have been extremely diligent.

They catch the mild cases - the numbers are already made up of 80% asymptomatic and mild cases.

In Guangdong for example they took c. 350,000 tests so have a very good population level view of the cases.

@NathanNathan Thank you that's really helpful.

I think you need to watch the whole conference to appreciate the level of diligence China have taken.

It's actually breathtaking.

I found it extremely compelling.

An office in Canary Wharf has sent all its staff home after a member of staff had flu symptoms after travelling to an effected country. Can't link, but it was the Scum...

I think there's a difference between China containing the spread of the virus and handling it well. The CCP have committed many human rights abuses in order to contain the spread of the virus, one has to wonder what is worse, having this virus or having your basic freedoms so curtailed that life is not really worth living.

Thanks @wheresmymojo. So in those numbers where they're confident they're capturing most of the mild cases etc, what do the critical and death % come out as?

Sorry at least work so can't watch the whole thing atm, also worried it may do me more harm than good anxiety wise.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/uknews/11044788/london-office-on-coronavirus-lockdown/

Agree that the conference was extremely informative and I think everyone should find the time to watch it.

Answers to Labour shadow health minister's questions

"are plans in place in case of this virus becoming pandemic and so still aiming to contain both abroad and here at home to prevent it from becoming pandemic"

"all but essential travel is not recommended to quarantined areas of northern Italy."

Heathrow - expanded availability of support and isolation facilities since just arrow park and milton keynes is not appropriate for individual travellers. Chosen facility near Heathrow because most likely."

Goal to try to keep schools open wherever we can and wider goal is to have the minimum disruption subject to keeping everyone safe.

Testing - have sites at all A&E facilities across England but also Home testing to be introduced so people don't have to go to the A&E pods

Funding from treasury will be available.