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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to be worried about coronavirus part 3

999 replies

peridito · 18/02/2020 09:28

starting this in case ivybush is busy

previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3819574-AIBU-to-ask-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-coronavirus-continued

OP posts:
Thread gallery
30
Seventyone72seventy3 · 23/02/2020 21:28

@sterlingviolet Yes, I just meant the school situation.

Ontopofthesunset · 23/02/2020 21:32

I think that's what happens when it becomes officially a pandemic - instead of trying to contain it, it's about control and mitigation in every country. I'm supposed to be going to Japan at the end of March, and am watching travel/FCO advice closely. Although now I think since it will be everywhere soon it perhaps doesn't much matter if I speed up my exposure by a couple of months. We haven't banned flights from Italy or Iran or South Korea; I travel by train and tube in London several times a week - with porous borders it is impossible to contain.

peridito · 23/02/2020 21:35

eeyore yes. this extract from RedToothBrush's post at 15.59 made sense to me

But the P word alone won’t help the public understand what’s about to change: the end of most quarantines, travel restrictions, contact tracing, and other measures designed to keep “them” from infecting “us,” and the switch to measures like canceling mass events designed to keep us from infecting each other.

from virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 23/02/2020 21:44

There's talk of food shortages in parts of China. We know imports of pork have pretty much just stopped. Which highlights the point that everything can't just close down without knock on consequences which are potentially life threatening in their own right.

Things will start to get interesting in the next two weeks when the usual container shipments from China fail to arrive.

We know about parts shortages in the car manufacturing industry, but there's lots more. The pharmaceutical shortages are the scary ones - especially the antibiotics one.

But its not just those.

60 percent of apple juice sold in the United States is imported from China. That includes other drinks made from apple juice concentrate too. China is the biggest producer of apple juice in the world - with 90% of it exported.

Shit will start to hit the fan in multiple ways in the next couple of weeks. I don't think we have any clue about what will happen yet tbh.

I find that all scary. It's really not just the virus itself.

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 21:59

Is there a list of the medications that are likely to be affected? I know one of my son's is manufactured there but there are 4 others I don't know about.

Quartz2208 · 23/02/2020 22:07

RedToothBrush I actually think the impact to infrastructure is scarier - and I think that is the bit we arent being told about. Its all very good to quarantine if it works but at the moment its not and the implications of continuing are immense.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2020 22:08

I havent seen a list but I will keep an eye out.

Another article on the same subject.

www.politico.eu/article/europe-braces-for-coronavirus-induced-drug-shortages/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

It's not cheery.

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 22:16

It's looking like brexit may have an up side after all, in terms of a stock pile of medicine that was created in case of no deal!
I was wondering about freedom of movement too. Do we think that now that has ended here, it may be beneficial? I know we aren't stopping flights for holidays etc but if there is no freedom of movement I'm assuming there are less people coming to the UK? I'm probably totally wrong though.

meredithgrey1 · 23/02/2020 22:21

I was wondering about freedom of movement too. Do we think that now that has ended here, it may be beneficial?

Free movement doesn't finish until the end of the year I don't think?

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2020 22:21

From an article from Oct last year

www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2019-10-01/commentary-us-reliance-on-china-for-generic-drugs-is-a-security-threat?context=amp&__twitter_impression=true
The Other U.S. Prescription Drug Problem

China and India now manufacture about 80% of the drugs consumed in the U.S. This figure understates China's dominance because many of the active ingredients in the Indian manufactured drugs come from China. The U.S. doesn't even manufacture vital drugs like antibiotics anymore, with the last penicillin factory closing in 2004.

And another from sept
www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1052376?__twitter_impression=true

"If China shut the door on exports of medicines and their key ingredients and raw material, U.S. hospitals and military hospitals and clinics would cease to function within months, if not days," said Rosemary Gibson, author of a book on the subject, "China Rx."

And

Other generic drugs whose key ingredients are manufactured in China include medicines for blood pressure medicine, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, epilepsy and depression, Gibson says.

And

"The national security risks of increased Chinese dominance of the global API market cannot be overstated," Christopher Priest, the acting deputy assistant director for health care operations and Tricare for the Defense Health Agency, told a U.S.-China advisory panel in Washington this summer.

This link is dated and about risk of dodgy Chinese manufacturers but it does have a long list of medication manufactured in China which probably isn't a bad starting point. Its not an ideal source but it's the best I've found so far. Will keep looking.
www.africanamerica.org/topic/check-out-this-list-of-drugs-manufactured-in-unregulated-or-inspected-china

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 22:23

I think you are right Meredith

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 22:25

Brilliant, thank you so much RedToothBrush!

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2020 22:27

It's looking like brexit may have an up side after all, in terms of a stock pile of medicine that was created in case of no deal!
I have thought that... Those stockpiled body bags might come in handy too though... Certainly no deal planning might well prove not to be such a huge waste.

I have also learnt much about supply chains. And how bog roll is a pain in the arse to distribute. (we are not self sufficient in bog roll, so if we cut ourselves off from the rest if the world this isn't too good)

I was wondering about freedom of movement too. Do we think that now that has ended here, it may be beneficial? I know we aren't stopping flights for holidays etc but if there is no freedom of movement I'm assuming there are less people coming to the UK? I'm probably totally wrong though.

We have freedom of movement until Dec 31st. However arguably the UK could renege on agreement in the name of an emergency situation and national security etc.

I don't think that's it our interests though, given we are already short of farm labour, carers and medical staff as it is...

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 22:28

All of his drugs except one are made in china.... So if it goes tits up he's screwed

ChipotleBlessing · 23/02/2020 22:34

Freedom of movement can be stopped at any time and we always have been able to. We’re not even in Schengen and even if we were, Austria is demonstrating that it is possible to opt out when required.

wherearemychickens · 23/02/2020 22:40

Yes, I have also had that thought about no deal brexit planning - we had significantly increased our carrying capacity as a household and increased our resilience to supply shocks in a number of ways, and a lot of that has just needed topping up rather than starting from scratch, and I have wondered how many businesses are in the same position. They may have depleted stocks from a certain high, but still be carrying more than they would have been a couple of years ago?

Time will tell I guess.

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 22:45

Sky news saying Austria are letting trains from Italy back in the country now

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 22:47

www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5473283?__twitter_impression=true new case in Canada

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 22:53

2nd confirmed case in Israel too. Another of the cruise ship passengers.

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 23:04

Four more South Korean military personnel test positive for #coronavirus. Total now at 10 #Covid_19 (from twitter Korean news correspondent)

yolofish · 23/02/2020 23:51

@HuntedUp thank you for asking, I think DD is ok...

PumpkinPieAlibi · 24/02/2020 01:50

The director general of the WHO has recently spoken of a narrowing of the window of opportunity to control the current epidemic. The tipping point - after which our ability to prevent a global pandemic ends - seems a lot closer after the past 24 hours
Prof. Paul Hunter
Professor of Health Protection
University of East Anglia
Feb. 23, 2020

Dennisreynoldsduster · 24/02/2020 02:02

Do you have a link pumpkin

Dennisreynoldsduster · 24/02/2020 02:03

Does anyone know, if it’s declared a pandemic, does the quarantining continue?

LeGrandBleu · 24/02/2020 02:09

The quarantine in 11 towns near Milan is not voluntary but enforced.
This is what supermarkets in Milan look like
milano.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/02/23/news/coronavirus_supermercati_lombardia-249374156/ It is impossible to get a slot for online shopping including amazon groceries.
In Milan, there I no quarantine but things are turning ugly.
Schools, museums, cinemas, the Duomo, the Scala, gyms everything is closed, even the fashion week shows happen behind closed door and digital display.

It is worrying

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