AIBU to ask if you are worried about the new coronavirus? - continued

[IvyBush123]

Here is the old thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3813759-AIBU-to-ask-you-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-Coronavirus?pg=40

Here is a twitter video from Wuhan I want to share because it so heartbreaking. People happily celebrating shortly before it became known that there was a virus outbreak. There already were some rumors but people didn’t believe them:
twitter.com/WLaowai8/status/1225637845508837377

@Yourtunbridgewells: The info you are sharing (472000 deaths in the UK) is very scary. Is this a worst case scenario.

@justdeckingthehalls: Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding writes that it is airborne on twitter: twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226236552059260928
N95 masks help against airborne transmission don’t they?

The sheer size of the potential numbers is starting to make me concerned now.

Out of curiosity after a couple glasses of wine the other night I crunched numbers for NYC metropolitan area, where I live. Assuming every bed is dedicated to coronavirus, NYC could cope with a max of 2% of the population infected at any time. Then I did London, and had less exact figures to begin with but guesstimate is between 2% - 3%.

But of course that's majorly optimistic (I had to take a guess at the number of beds in some of the tri state area for example) and massively flawed because not every bed is equal and I don't know how much staffing levels can be expanded by.

I'm no mathematician so would like to know if anyone else has guessed at different numbers, in terms of % of population infected before hitting maximum capacity in the hospitals?

This is why we have to try to slow it down. If we can't stop it going through the whole population, maybe we can make it slower.

I read they're trying plasma from recovered patients as treatment - I really hope that works.

I looked into bed numbers in Hubei Province. The province has a population a little lower than the UK as a whole.

The overall number of hospital beds it had (pre outbreak) is higher than the UK has. They are more centrally located (as majority of population is in very densely packed cities).

I could go into more detail but I actually think that's sufficient to make the point.

Until China, we wouldn't be able to ship in extra medical staff from other provinces.

Where the UK benefits is from a generally better level of health overall, a lot less smokers (60% of Chinese men smoke) and the population isn't so densely packed which seem to be relevant points.

But health and age in the UK is not geographically even. You have certain towns where the population is significantly older and you have certain towns where the health of the population is significantly lower. This might cause real issues.

UK has one of the lowest rates of bed per 1000 patients in the West.

I'm currently reading up on wild theories that the virus is interacting with certain bacteria in a strange way which might explain long incubation patterns, family patterns and possible reinfection anomalies. It's out there, but atm there isn't anything else making sense at all.

Found a report here from China CDC but can’t verify source yet. Looks genuine and makes for interesting reading. Those with asthma like myself 6.3% death rate headline but of course no differentiation between chronic respiratory illnesses so could be red herring.

github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/master/COVID-19.pdf

RedToothBrush re bacteria, is that gut bacteria/microbiome type thing or environmental bacteria?

Found a report here from China CDC but can’t verify source yet. Looks genuine and makes for interesting reading. Those with asthma like myself 6.3% death rate headline but of course no differentiation between chronic respiratory illnesses so could be red herring.

https://github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/master/COVID-19.pdf

Helen Branswell tweeted that earlier so I think it is from China CDC.

The stats on children are reassuring (no deaths in 0-9 year olds and 1 death in 10-19 year olds in the sample of 44k cases that they looked at)

Anyone who thinks the Chinese govt are handling the outbreak well should read this - heartbreaking tragedies of patients & medical staff and a toxic dictatorship that thinks only of itself.

Western democracies would cope far better in crisis and would imo have much lower death rates

As Wuhan’s desperate and sick beg for help, China shuts them down

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/17/wuhan-china-doctors-coronavirus

Today is the first day I have logged onto BBC news app and coronavirus hasn’t been in the top stories. I know it doesn’t mean much but a slight positive.

But health and age in the UK is not geographically even. You have certain towns where the population is significantly older and you have certain towns where the health of the population is significantly lower. This might cause real issues.

I suspect this is why it's been so virulent on the cruise ships.

@BigChocFrenzy
I disagree completely. The fact that China is a one party state enables them to take action quickly to implement controls and try to manage this spread of the virus. Clearly, there was a cover up in the beginning and I am sure there will be severe consequences for those involved. Similarly, I am sure many medical staff in Hubei are under huge pressure and are physically and mentally exhausted.
The actions the govt have taken are severe, but with no vaccine and a 14 day incubation period these measures are necessary. I don’t think any other country could have achieved what China is now doing to control this eg non residents cannot enter compounds, everything shut, schools shut, compulsory temp checks, control of movement between cities and provinces, keeping supermarkets open.
In case you are wondering all of this is based on my personal experience. I have lived in China for 12 years.

I've just read the Abels have both tested positive. Really hope that they will be mild cases.

It does seem so far that for the abels its a mild case. They're not unwell, just had a positive swab. So fingers crossed that remains the case.

Can someone remind me of the name of the chap with the glasses from Imperial College who is an expert on modelling and the spread? I'm pretty sure somebody has posted one of his videos here

Prof. Neil Ferguson?

This thread is about to die. Not sure where the OP is.

Well

I

Time for a new thread @IvyBush123 ?

could

start

another

one

to be

helpful