AIBU to ask if you are worried about the new coronavirus? - continued

[IvyBush123]

Here is the old thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3813759-AIBU-to-ask-you-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-Coronavirus?pg=40

Here is a twitter video from Wuhan I want to share because it so heartbreaking. People happily celebrating shortly before it became known that there was a virus outbreak. There already were some rumors but people didn’t believe them:
twitter.com/WLaowai8/status/1225637845508837377

@Yourtunbridgewells: The info you are sharing (472000 deaths in the UK) is very scary. Is this a worst case scenario.

@justdeckingthehalls: Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding writes that it is airborne on twitter: twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226236552059260928
N95 masks help against airborne transmission don’t they?

Surely the point about stocking up is that if you can afford it, you just chuck a few extra bits into the shopping every time.

Right now we're pretty much all healthy in this country and our supply chains are working fine for things other than masks or components made in China that are beginning to be in short supply.

I don't know when restrictions on what other things we can buy might kick in, but unless and until they are rationed, I think it's reasonable to buy moderate quantities of things for personal use in advance of knowing you'll definitely need them. Better to get shops reordering to refill their shelves while that's easy. You could say we all have a duty to get ready for being stuck at home for a fortnight, if we possibly can.

On the other hand, I think we also have a duty not to go mad, or we could create shortages - this is no longer quite like general prepping or brexit prepping six months before the deadline. It's better if everyone in the country can have two weeks worth of supplies at home, than for a few people to have enough loo rolls for six months and others to have none.

I think the 20 per cent case fatality rate discussed above is way beyond what current experts ate estimating.

Although its too early to say most guesses seem to be are around 2 to 3 percent. Although that is still pretty awful.

The worldometer. Site linked above explains the maths and the lag issue.

I had a wry smile when I saw that Princess Cruises are offering all Diamond Princess passengers a voucher for a free future cruise, in addition to a 100% refund for this one. I wonder how many of them will be signing up to another adventure at sea?

I feel quite sorry for this company, it's not at all their fault but they'll have lost so much money, and their ship is now known round the world for a miserable quarantine

If the gov are to stop testing at 100 cases and you have to self isolate at home - this could actually mean if you get really sick they're not intending to treat you?

I really don't think that's what it means. It means that if you have mild symptoms they won't bother isolating you in hospital. Like the general advice with flu, "stay home if you're ill, but if you're really ill, we'll treat you in hospital"

@meredithgrey1

I sincerely hope that is the case.

If you see my post on preppers though there is increasing ancedotal evidence from doctors that treatment will be only given to those likely to survive - i.e. the elderly and those with underlying conditions will not be supported once the hospitals are full.

are their any reports on how children are doing? any deaths, recoveries.....hoping not

There are a couple of things that bother me.

There are a number of reports of whole families dying. That's vastly different from the data suggesting it is particularly deadly to men over 60 with a pre existing condition.

The second is that people are focused on the cytokine storm aspect as a cause of death. Whilst it's a real concern, I don't think that's my primary concern.

There are two things I noticed in the data I've seen before, and that was the number of people who reported symptoms of anorexia and fever.

If your whole family are ill, who feeds or gives you drinks? Are you capable of doing this. If you are severely ill it doesn't take you long to die of something like dehydration. We also know there are food and water shortages starting in the city.

The other is the high fever aspect. If your fever is very high this can result in unconsciousness and fits. These can cause death. This can happen very suddenly. I think is what we have seen in a number of videos of people who have collapsed in strange places.

These things also put people who live alone in a more vulnerable position.

And if coronavirus hits in the middle of a heat wave this could cause additional problems.

But yes, the death rate is questionable in various ways both up and down, but the whole family wiped out thing does concern me.

As is the news that the cruise ship quarantine failed spectacularly - not just on board but also with the quarantine officer who was wearing at least partial protective gear.

And the nurse who was treating the 80 year old who died in Japan.

There are certain things that just don't add up. They do not make sense.

I've always been taught to look for things that don't make sense and things with a absence of information because these tell you parts of the story that haven't been told publicly.

In this case there are huge gaps, and it's part of why the story interests me so much.

I agree red - increasing conflicting information each day, gaps where things should be clear.
Trying to make sense of it gives me
Brain ache

What would be existing medical conditions? Eczema count? Mild psoriasis? Mind asthma? Basically anything ?

*mild asthma

The WHO says children don't seem to be badly affected by the virus and one of the things they would like to work out (along with all the other stuff like transmission etc) etc is why. It's possible that the nurse in Japan was infected because they had no reason to suspect that the patient was suffering from coronavirus so adequate precautions weren't taken. And of course human error is always possible in terms of incorrect taking off/disposal of contaminated clothing etc.

Most of the preexisting conditions they have given have been things like diabetes, lung disease/asthma, heart disease and in some cases hepatitis and cancer ie things that make you vulnerable to any infection and particularly to a lung infection.

Where are the anecdata about abandoning old/sick patients to their fate coming from?

I am spending my days in a state of the art NHS critical care unit just now (as patient’s next of kin) and in the long bedside hours punctuated only by beeping machines I have had some chats with HCP about Covid-19. There has been nothing to suggest that patients will at any future tipping point be discriminated against in the manner suggested.

I would have thought the family of a currently critically ill patient is the last person they'd have that kind of blunt discussion with, tbh :-(

Unfortunately I think the reality is that if limited resources have to be rationed, we won't all have an equal shot at them (just as we don't now - transplants are prioritised, for instance).

I have just had a lightbulb moment about the fact I have completely ignored garlic and ginger in my prepping, despite that fact that we use /sooooo/ much of it. You can freeze both of those, right? I should so have some in the freezer. Doh.

@RedToothBrush

I heard about the film director’s family, but haven’t seen reports of any others like that.
Still extremely concerning.

Ooops - sorry, wrong thread - thought I was on preppers!

Daily mail are reporting head of corona hospital in China may have died

Does anyone know how those who catch coronavirus are treated/kept comfortable? ABs wob't help, so is it just a case of an oxygen mask, and hope - sorry to sound so blunt.

There has been nothing to suggest that patients will at any future tipping point be discriminated against in the manner suggested.

Absolutely there will be. It's called triage. You use your resources on the patients for whom it's most likely to make a difference.

We have about 6 ITU beds per 100,000 population in this country. They are more often than not full at any given time.

If I think my ITU bed is more likely to save the life of this 20 year old who's had a car accident than this 80 year old with coronavirus then damn straight the 20 year old gets the bed.

There's no other way to run a healthcare system with limited resources. It can't work on a first come first served basis, you have to use your resources effectively

Re children, Dr John Campbell on YouTube discusses a recent JAMA paper looking at 9 cases.

The cruise ship thing I agree is worrying. It suggests wildly imperfect hygiene and use of protective gear from the crew, or, it's airborne and being spread through the air con. Or both.

There were cases on the Cambodia docked vessel also, even though they allegedly all tested negative.

The 5 % of cases which results in multiple organ failure and sceptic shock etc. I guess if you are in these cases your chance of survival is probably fairly low anyway. Itu or not. So maybe not worth worrying too much about if you would be a priority case

I hope that comment doesn’t offend anyone. Just trying to stop myself second guessing if I would be priority or not

Working on the numbers, with 5% of infected needing ITU, and there being around 4000 ITU beds in the U.K., we'd run out of space once 80,000 people were infected. That's assuming we didn't need a single bed for anything other than coronavirus, which is never going to happen. If we cancel all non emergency surgery I reckon we could spare maybe 1000-2000 of those beds for coronavirus, meaning the system would become overwhelmed once 20-40,000 people became infected. Really isn't a lot of wriggle room in this at all

Just checked through the stats, the 20% figure is the proportion of severe cases, not deaths.

The consequences nevertheless are pretty appalling.

Dr Campbell's round up today is pretty sobering.

As others have said, the Royal College of Physicians webcast is excellent. It's two hours long, but the Chief Médical Officer's slot at the end is an excellent summary.

The issue with the 'things not adding up' are the large number of known unknowns we are dealing with. I am interested in this from a comms point of view, rather like red toothbrush.

I am robustly healthy, never even had flu, ( am in my 50s) so up to know have been naive and somewhat lax about hand hygiene.

That has now changed. I do not want to endanger others or me from my own silly arrogance.