AIBU to ask if you are worried about the new coronavirus? - continued

[IvyBush123]

Here is the old thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3813759-AIBU-to-ask-you-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-Coronavirus?pg=40

Here is a twitter video from Wuhan I want to share because it so heartbreaking. People happily celebrating shortly before it became known that there was a virus outbreak. There already were some rumors but people didn’t believe them:
twitter.com/WLaowai8/status/1225637845508837377

@Yourtunbridgewells: The info you are sharing (472000 deaths in the UK) is very scary. Is this a worst case scenario.

@justdeckingthehalls: Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding writes that it is airborne on twitter: twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226236552059260928
N95 masks help against airborne transmission don’t they?

Sorry meant to thank you for link also Larkdescending!

Thank you Peridito for the link and LarkDescending for sharing the information. It answers a lot of the questions which are being posted.

re the possible death rate I was just reading that in the early stages of an outbreak of a new virus it tends to be the most severe cases that take themselves off for treatment .

Others with milder symptoms don't visit a doctor and donr get diagnosed ,

So the initial group of diagnosed ppl are sicker and more likely to die
and that group produces a skewed high death rate .

But I'm not good at these things so hopefully someone more knowledgeable will correct/explain .

Something as dangerous as the common flu

Seasonal flu kill thousands in developed countries every year despite:

1. Many people having some immunity (even if not complete immunity) due to having been exposed to similar flu viruses in the past.
2. Extensive vaccination programmes for those most at risk.
3. Targeted antivirals such as Tamiflu being available.

None of these applies to Covid-19. From a public health point of view it is a much bigger deal.

That is scary HasaDigaEebowai

But this is the point - someone from John Hopkins on Beeb this morning was describing it in most cases to be like mild flu - so there are two different stories being told, by presumably respectable scientists?

here's the link to the thread Larkdescending is on

[https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/a3824263-covid19-sigh-sorry#93988028]][

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/a3824263-covid19-sigh-sorry#93988028

From the point of view of many (or even most) individual sufferers it might feel like mild flu. But public health is about the scale of the impact, not the individual experience. If vast numbers are infected, then even a small minority of those vast numbers having severe or fatal disease has a major impact.

I read online that they’re aren’t any gp surgeries in China and so any ill people go to hospitals instead.

So in the early stages of the virus lots of people were going to hospital for other illnesses but were then infected with the COVID-19 too.

X post Larkdescending

But we are looking at quarantine actions in China that are more appropriate to Ebola arent we? That would make sense if 20% death rate is correct.

They are very different to precautions one would make to avoid common flu?

So which is it?

(Unless I have this all wrong which is more than likely! Failed spectacularly at sciences!)

More precautions than common flu because it is a bigger public health risk than common flu. I don’t see the difficulty with that.

Mmm but China a completely different kettle of fish culturally ,politically and geographically ( by which I mean urban ,huge cities v more riral( than Africa and other Ebola affected countries .

So more likely/easier to lock down millions in China .

Thanks Larkdescending that makes sense... but just pondering ...if current death rates 20% and you imagine that China is holding back on some data... then it would be appropriate for us to prepare to treat this in a much more serious way then merely an aggravated flu ie the precautions we are taking currently are not sufficient?

V detailed info on death rate ,cf with other diseases ,how calculated etc here
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

It's too much for me to follow but others might find it helpful .

Current steps in the UK are guided by the current status, but there are several escalation levels in the locker. If you haven’t yet seen the Chief Medical Officer’s presentation (relinked above by peridito at about 09:58) I would recommend it. He starts at exactly 2 hours into the video (other parts of which are also interesting!).

Thank you Larkdescending that's reassuring and again Perditio.

All this info is much appreciated.

Sadly the CMO's presentation is not available to me as there is a defect on my ancient laptop when it comes to sound!

So links to readable stuff welcomed here .

The US has just repatriated 14 people who've tested positive since leaving the Diamond Princess.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-live-china-uk-symptoms-outbreak-covid-death-toll-latest-a9338641.html

Interesting that a hotel near Heathrow has now been block-booked and designated as a quarantine site. I wonder whether the plan is to use it in the first instance for British evacuees from the Diamond Princess.

The American experience shows the problem with evacuation from the ship - you wipe out any protection from their time already spent in isolation when you put them on a plane together (possibly also with bus transfers at either end) to take them home.

There's also a russian woman from the diamond princess who has now been diagnosed after being allowed to leave the ship.

The American experience shows the problem with evacuation from the ship - you wipe out any protection from their time already spent in isolation when you put them on a plane together (possibly also with bus transfers at either end) to take them home.

But surely the time gets reset every day new cases are identified on board anyway? So getting off and into proper quarantine does at least put a finite timeframe in place.

Quarantine in its most basic form is designed not to protect the people in quarantine but the rest of the population. So unless people in quarantine are also isolated from all others in quarantine they are all just going to infect each other. Although the cruise ship has tried to isolate people in their cabins clearly it hasn't worked - who knows whether the virus is being transmitted via the air conditioning/heating, the water system, the crew, the food?

They aren’t confined to their cabins 24/7 if they’re in inside cabins. They’re allowed out for short periods for fresh air.

People may have been incubating the virus for a fortnight. I suppose it could also be passed on by crew members preparing food if they have the infections but don’t have symptoms.

I'd have thought that tracking the spread on the Diamond cruise ship ( and others) would be an interesting investigation into how it spreads .