AIBU to ask if you are worried about the new coronavirus? - continued

[IvyBush123]

Here is the old thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3813759-AIBU-to-ask-you-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-Coronavirus?pg=40

Here is a twitter video from Wuhan I want to share because it so heartbreaking. People happily celebrating shortly before it became known that there was a virus outbreak. There already were some rumors but people didn’t believe them:
twitter.com/WLaowai8/status/1225637845508837377

@Yourtunbridgewells: The info you are sharing (472000 deaths in the UK) is very scary. Is this a worst case scenario.

@justdeckingthehalls: Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding writes that it is airborne on twitter: twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226236552059260928
N95 masks help against airborne transmission don’t they?

This is positive if it means they don’t think it’s serious www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51526875

Nemo yes ,just coming here to say the same !

Schools do not need to close or send staff and pupils home if there is a suspected case of coronavirus, new guidance is to recommend.

Public Health England will say no restrictions or special control measures are needed while tests are carried out on a suspected case.

If a case is confirmed, health protection teams will speak to the head teacher and action will be taken.

PHE is expected to issue the new guidance later

The school advice isn't good for my child who is immunosuppressed though. If someone is being tested for coronavirus I want to keep him at home, the same as I do if someone has suspected chicken pox.

Why do you think so many people have died in China but not in other countries?

Is it because they’ve been exposed to the virus for longer and so more people are infected? Or is it because it’s true that being infected a second time round is much much worse?

Completely get that ofwarren ,I presume that will be covered in the guidelines .

Although of course I'd keep them off in that situation whether in guidelines or not .

I think it's just because more people have the virus. The cruise ship shows how quickly it spreads when you don't keep on top of it. I think they got overwhelmed by cases and now it's rife.

Bamboo my understanding is that the percentage of people who have died is very small. Not wanting to minimise by that though the heartbreak for their families .

I'm going into school on Monday next week peridito to speak to the head. They currently tell me if anything infectious is around so I'm hoping they continue to do so. I'm concerned about other families though, who's schools are less amenable.

I don't think there are really the number of cases to be able to compare the death rate in other countries to China yet. Not many people have got it outside China and it seems to take a while to become severe if it's going to. Of course there are loads of other confounding variables. For example, housing is crowded in China, air quality is very bad, smoking rates are very high, food is typically shared from the same dishes, so while these are true in many other countries as well, it's quite different from say typical western European countries. It seems very unlikely that a large number of people would have had time to have had the virus twice.

I can't help but wonder if some of the measures they have taken might have made things worse or increased fatalities. I'm thinking specifically of closing people into buildings, etc.

Why do you think so many people have died in China but not in other countries?

Is it because they’ve been exposed to the virus for longer and so more people are infected? Or is it because it’s true that being infected a second time round is much much worse?

^This is what I want to know too. None of it makes sense. ( Although one person has died in France. )

Is it possible we are being told the mortality rate is low just to keep everyone calm, when the truth is very different? Or is health care better elsewhere? Or is China deliberately exaggerating its effects in order to exert control somehow? (The latter seems rather far fetched.) Or does the genetic make up, diet, air quality or similar, of Chinese people make them more susceptible somehow? Or perhaps it is because sections of the population live in closer proximity to one another than in Western Europe?

The re-infection possibility is the one that is most worrying I think.

There is a presentation for professionals posted on the other thread (the sigh one) by @LarkDescending which is very worth watching. It’s long but very clear and informative in terms of understanding what’s happening and why. The Chief Medical Officer is the last speaker. Sorry I don’t know how to link on phone.

More people have died in China because more people have caught the infection in China.

So if the mortality rate is 1% (figure plucked out of air), if 100 of your population have caught it, you'd expect 1 to die. If 100,000 catch it you'd expect 1,000 deaths. And so on.

It is true that health care systems will struggle if there are thousands of serious ill people too, so youd expect a bit more mortality in any country seriously affected as the ratio of medical input per seriously ill patient will drop.

my understanding is that the percentage of people who have died is very small.

It isn't though. Its currently standing at 15% of those with a confirmed diagnosis.

Re the death rate: it can’t be calculated reliably until enough time has passed in an outbreak for significant numbers of people to either die or recover. Whilst people are still in hospital (still the vast majority in China - 58k out of the 71k diagnosed are still ill) you don’t know whether they are going to recover or survive. Numbers in the outbreaks outside China are still too small to draw any very strong inferences.

The data are being recalculated every day - it’s not that anyone is trying to withhold information. This is real-time science.

This site is good for up to date info: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The food sharing, possible ineffective quarantining, and the percentage point all make sense.

Thank you, going to check out that link Naturalbornwoman

And what is a "confirmed diagnosis " as it relates to those statistics? And how does it compare to the no. of people actually infected?

*die or survive

Here's the link to the presentation
www.kaltura.com/index.php/extwidget/preview/partner_id/2012451/uiconf_id/32750761/entry_id/1_6qg432gr/embed/iframe? mentioned above .

I can see why they'd advise schools not to close whole suspected cases are being tested. The BBC article does also say that PHE will advise where a case is confirmed. Hopefully the advice would be different then (I work in a school with 1250 on roll and would not want to be taking this back to my family and rural community with only a tiny hospital).

*while

Thinking about this ... presumably China has been acting on the basis of a worst case scenario, as quarantining a city of 60 million for something as dangerous as the common flu would seem excessive?

Thanks for link Peridito

It's the death/recover rate. Currently Just under 15% of cases with outcomes.

This tallies with the 20% of cases severe/critical rate.

TBH whilst I pray to god it isn't this high, it would explain locking down 60 million people, banning private vehicles, disinfecting currency and taking it out of circulation and imposing a law that nobody can leave their homes other than one person per household every three days to buy food (imposed by posting guards at the entrances to the housing complexes). These are serious measures that will have a massive impact on China's economy.

The 60 million is now across various cities not just Wuhan. Vietnam also has an area locked down.