How much info do we have on people having mild cases and recovering?
Based on the official cases its roughly 80 percent mild cases and 20% severe/critical.
Those figures pan out in the outcome cases too (these are cases where someone has either recovered or died) which shows roughly 82 percent recovery and 18% death.
These figures are likely to be inaccurate though since there are likely to be many thousands of cases that are not in the official stats. A death rate of 18% would be massive and its unlikely. Its more likely that there are hundreds of thousand of unreported cases. The WHO estimate (which is very much only an estimate) is 2% death rate which although its much lower than 18%, is still much, much higher than flu.
The Imperial study discussed yesterday concluded that if 200 people were infected they are 95% certain that between 1 and 8 people of those 200 would die. The predictions are that 60-70% of the UK could become infected in a worst case scenario which would equate to circa 450,000 deaths.
So that's what we know. Its based on predictions and so nobody knows for sure.
The BBC pandemic experiment is being shown again this evening. I watch it and joined in when it was first broadcast. I'd recommend it to everyone. Its really interesting in showing how the viruses spread (they basically take a real village (fake virus obviously) and map people and then show who is affected due to contact with others.