AIBU to ask if you are worried about the new coronavirus? - continued

[IvyBush123]

Here is the old thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3813759-AIBU-to-ask-you-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-Coronavirus?pg=40

Here is a twitter video from Wuhan I want to share because it so heartbreaking. People happily celebrating shortly before it became known that there was a virus outbreak. There already were some rumors but people didn’t believe them:
twitter.com/WLaowai8/status/1225637845508837377

@Yourtunbridgewells: The info you are sharing (472000 deaths in the UK) is very scary. Is this a worst case scenario.

@justdeckingthehalls: Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding writes that it is airborne on twitter: twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226236552059260928
N95 masks help against airborne transmission don’t they?

Re spread on the Diamond Princess, they've all been invited out to do napkin-folding sessions...

Interestingly the article from the BBC stating schools are being told Not to close even with suspected cases of the virus has been taken off the internet but appears on some other news sites but for how long we will see.
It is this what is worrying that the news are being fed by the govt to control the public.

Interestingly 70% of those who tested positive on the ship were showing no symptoms at all.

But we are looking at quarantine actions in China that are more appropriate to Ebola arent we? That would make sense if 20% death rate is correct.

It depends.

If the hospitals were overloaded then the government would not just be concerned about health issues but also civil unrest or dissent.

I think it's easy to forget this from our point of view, that since it's an authoritarian state it will act in ways that are alien to us.

The government does not want to be questioned now or in the future.

You have to sit it more along side a health crisis from a government prepared to shoot its own people at a political protest, not it merely being a health crisis.

How people started reacting when the whistle-blower doctor died and the governments response to that is interesting. They tried initially to deny he had died, then admitted it. But still haven't acknowledged his role in bringing attention to the problem.

You also have a fear that this is similar to SARS and the government not wanting to be seen to be acting in a way which didn't respond well like it did for SARS.

Yes there are definitely questions over the death rate, and the number of serious cases, but there's also questions over failed governance and that's a massive threat to the Chinese system in both the short and long term.

It's still definitely worth watching what's happening in Japan and Singapore for how serious the disease itself actually is.

And, just like passengers on the cruise ship, if there are infections in Japan whose origin cannot be traced, it suggests that there are asymptomatic/very mildly symptomatic carriers out there (otherwise they would have sought medical help too) which is good news for most people who will probably be only mildly affected but bad news for controlling the spread and keeping it away from those who are likely to become more seriously ill.

It is this what is worrying that the news are being fed by the govt to control the public.

What is worrying about the news giving the most up to date information from the govt and PHE? Where would you prefer them to get their information from, Twitter? And yes, the govt will need to control the public due to the fact that we are on the knife edge of a pandemic and still hoping for containment. You can expect a lot more of it if we have to move to the next phase.

No I think you misinterpreted what I meant. I think they have been told to take that article offline as parents will be quite rightly be furious that they won't be shutting schools or being informed of likely suspected cases

If parents don't trust schools to inform them that there is suspected cases then parents will pull kids regardless.

You can expect a lot more of it if we have to move to the next phase.

I think a lot of the concerns about covid-19 in this country in particular, is that the government have spunked all its trust capital up the wall. It's not that people think that the government would act maliciously, at least I wouldn't, but when it comes to competence, piss up and brewery come to mind.

There is still reference to it within the link from a PP but it's embedded within the article rather than headline news.

RTB yes , thank you, understood re: political governance point and more accurate/ less political loaded stats becoming available from Japan and Singapore I imagine, although all govs will spin this info to a degree perhaps?

Don't like to think about this (and hopefully not necessary in context of Corona) but say UK and other govs were in possession of really horrifying stats to the extent that it was clear nothing could be done, what would be the point of releasing that info? It's not helpful to speculate but respected scientists have been saying for years that a serious pandemic is imminent.

At the very least shouldn’t schools be sending home pupils who show symptoms and have recently returned from one of the affected areas?

As they are advising people to stay indoors and call 111 on gov.uk, if they’ve returned from China or several other countries within the last 14 days and have symptoms.

Don't like to think about this (and hopefully not necessary in context of Corona) but say UK and other govs were in possession of really horrifying stats to the extent that it was clear nothing could be done, what would be the point of releasing that info?

How could it ever be the case that nothing could be done to reduce the risk of infection? If the data is truly horrifying and they released it people would be aware that they needed to take strict measures to avoid being infected.

Regardless, people should be given the chance to protect themselves or come to terms with the fact that they can't. The argument that people should not be told if their life is at risk seems extremely patronising. They don't do this in healthcare nowadays as it's really not fair. Would you think it right for someone not to be told they had cancer with a poor prognosis for example ? Once upon a time they would have kept quiet but it would be seen as totally unacceptable nowadays .People have a right to know.

I'd have thought that tracking the spread on the Diamond cruise ship ( and others) would be an interesting investigation into how it spreads .

Yes, I would really like to read the journal article analysing that in detail, in a couple of years!

The thing is even a 2% death rate is truly awful. Niall Fergusons estimate of 400000 deaths is based on that.

But as I have said given the current state of the NHS the government must be terrified of how it would cope given the critical case rate looks to be about 20% coupled with the fact it cant really currently cope with how overloaded it is

This is scary. Wuhan film director Chang Kai and his whole family (both parents and his sister) have died of the virus. variety.com/2020/film/asia/virus-kills-chinese-film-director-family-wuhan-1203505614/

@eeeyoresmiles I wonder if it was possible that a member of the crew who was responsible for preparing the food was infected without symptoms and gave it to all of them.

That’s horrifying @ivyBush123 , what could possibly explain that. It doesn’t sit with the idea that most people have a mild illness

@MissPoldark I ask myself the same question. Genetic factors? Three of them are blood relatives, maybe one parent had something wrong with his or her immune system and gave it to both children.... or just very bad luck... or it is more deadly than many think.

how awful. his wife in intensive care too

astounded that Wuhan built a hospital in 6 days!! 6!!

breathing difficulties.....i think that must be what gets them. not in hospital with oxygen to help

god help any asthmatics if thats the case, such a worry

I think they do not have enough oxygen tanks there even if you are in hospital . Just to many patients.

NaturalBornWoman they weren’t resetting the ship’s quarantine to day 1 every time there was a new diagnosis. The plan as at 15 Feb was (may still be) to release any non-infected people from the Diamond Princess on 19 Feb. That was why US citizen Matthew Smith tweeted his objection to semi-compulsory* evacuation by the US authorities - he and his wife wanted to see out another few days before liberation, rather than being herded with a load of other Americans back to fresh quarantine in the US.

*Semi-compulsory because those refusing the offer were told they would not be allowed to re-enter the US for an unspecified period of time.

There seems to be a possibility that a high viral load makes it much worse. If we do end up having to nurse family members at home, reducing that as much as possible will be important, but very hard.

This is where the thought of hospitals being overwhelmed by sheer numbers becomes even more worrying - if the people who need the most care have to get it at home from family members, then the family members might end up with more severe cases than they would have done otherwise.

I hope we'll get given more official NHS advice about how to care safely for people with coronavirus, at some point. Like the WHO said, China has bought us all some time to plan for these scenarios.

Wuhan’s 6-day hospital looked more like a vast dormitory than a hospital tbh.

Possible genetic factors in the host (patient) rather than the virus may well be an issue. There’s quite a bit of research into host factors affecting susceptibility to other infectious diseases, including malaria, HIV, CJD and more. No doubt one of the factors the experts will be looking into in time is whether there are patterns of susceptibility to Covid-19 in different populations or subsets of the population.