To think that Scottish Independence is now inevitable and who can blame them, so good luck Scotland!

[GoodLuckWeNeedIt]

That’s it really. Unfortunately, I think this Brexit deal will probably go through tomorrow. But even if there was a referendum, people will probably vote for whatever deal going because everyone is demented with Brexit fatigue. And even if we did remain following another referendum, there would be so much backlash and unpleasantness from certain elements of the far right it doesn’t bear thinking about.

It’s extemely depressing. I’m in a Remain London Borough. Never really met a Brexiteer, but what can you do?

I can’t imagine how livid the Scottish people must feel though. Their referendum was fairly marginal, but I think if they’d seen this coming the Scottish independence vote would have won through.

Anyway, NS is definitely gearing up for another Scottish referendum and who could blame her? At least Scotland have the option of getting out of this nightmare. I’m sure they’ll be independent within a year or so and good for them. I wish them all the best.

AIBU to think the legacy of Brexit will be Scottish Independence and the end of the UK as we know it?

I cannot really reconcile the blatant parallels between Brexit and a future "Scexit".

Consensus economic opinion suggests that Brexit will be damaging to the UK, principally because of increased trade barriers between the UK and EU. There are currently zero trade barriers, the future relationship is likely to have something higher than zero, therefore there's likely to be some impact to free trade etc.

The rest of the UK is Scotland's largest trading partner by a country mile. And despite desperate assertions by some to the contrary, this is not "pass through" trade .

"These are exports of goods and services by Scottish companies to customers in the rest of the UK. The majority of these exports will be consumed or remain within the rest of the UK".

Therefore, I cannot understand how you can hold the entirely contradictory position that, on economics, Brexit is terrible whilst Scottish Independence makes sense. Certainly on trade.

There are other arguments for independence I find more convincing (local or regional democracy, sovereignty etc).

But I don't think it's at all an accident that you don't hear the SNP attacking Brexit on economic grounds - only on "democratic outrage" grounds based on Scotland's voting pattern.

I hardly think SNP party PR spin is an objective assessment of their record in health not just in Glasgow.

Let us also not forget that were it not for the more than a million people in Scotland who voted in favour of Brexit, Brexit would not be happening.

I fail to see how I’ve indicated blind worship for the union or indeed how anything I’ve said is remotely goading.

I’ve advocated for strong opposition in a democratic independent Scotland and highlighted some of my perceived failings of the current Scottish govt.
I’ve also suggested that in the spirit of debate some of the pro SNP/ independence supporters on this thread and in the wider context could be a little more open to acknowledging that SNP = good, Westminster = bad. isn’t particularly conducive to finding a solution for Scotland in the current Brexit nightmare.

Of the million Scots who voted Leave in the Brexit referendum, I wonder how many of them are independence supporters who are flummoxed as to why staying in the EU with bureaucratic rule from Brussels is regarded as true independence.
FWIW I’m a remainer.

Of the million Scots who voted Leave in the Brexit referendum, I wonder how many of them are independence supporters

I doubt many were considering NIcola Sturgeon was campaigning at the time that she would take a vote for remain in Scotland should England vote leave as a vote for independence,

Dissimilitude - the union with the EU and the union with the UK are completely different. The EU has rules - if you want in the common market, you have to have the four freedoms. The UK doesn't. So we should be able to negotiate withdrawing from the UK union just fine. The reason Brexit is so difficult is that the UK doesn't want to comply with the rules. They want a bespoke agreement which suits them. The UK could leave at any time but are tying themselves in knots.

Plus the UK had no plan for Brexit. None. Scotland had a white paper in 2014 - you may not have agreed with it but it was a plan; there is the growth commission report and there is discussion and debate and plans and issues. All for withdrawing from the UK union. Which by the way, there is plenty of precedent for. Many countries have gained independence from the UK. Brexit and Scottish Independence are poles apart.

"England is Scotland’s biggest market.”
And Scotland is a huge market for England. Are you suggesting that the English would be so stupid that they would stop trading with us and damage their own businesses to punish Scotland? An independent Scotland in the EU would trade with England on the same terms as Ireland trades with NI.

Who was it saying that Brexit happened because a million Scots voted for it?! I had to laugh. Scotland votes remain by a large margin and we're being blamed for Brexit

A third of the SNP vote voted for Brexit. Sturgeon has been inept at taking advantage of this and linking independence so closely with Brexit is a strategic error on her part.

That Yes support is continuing to grow is dumb luck rather than leadership on her part. Salmond would have done much better on levering Brexit.

I don’t care about the SNP. Independence has completely transcended the SNP. Sturgeon’s faltering Government is only slowing the flow, not stopping it.

I just hope it all comes together at the right moment and we take our place among the sovereign nations of the world.

@Nyx

I made no claim about the relative preparadness of the cases - only on the potential trade impact of Brexit versus Scottish Independence.

I would also say that it's a bit fanciful to suggest that there are precedents for severing the 300-year Union, with the deepest ties across all levels of society and institution, whilst at the same time claiming the UK is somehow out of its mind for leaving the EU, an institution it only joined in living memory. The UK's integration with the rest of Europe is a fraction of that between England and Scotland.

I agree entirely that the sensible approach to independence would lead to zero meaningful trade barriers between rUK and Scotland.

But to achieve that you're relying on an amiable and common-sense driven negotiating stance from a (potentially tory) government, with resentful English voters egging it on to take a tough stance on an "ungrateful" Scotland. You're more optimistic than I am that calm heads would prevail.

Norway and Sweden managed just fine.

If Brexit England threw up huge barriers to trade with Scotland, just who would the majority of English trade be with? Scotland would be in the EU or at least the EEA I'd be prepared to bet.

How can they tell whether a leave voter also voted SNP in the elections, or not? Is it just down to the numbers? (Eg If a majority did x and a majority did y, there must be an overlap who did x+y). Because no one actually is allowed to know how you voted in either elections or referenda!

@Iggi999

Surveys and polls estimated about a third of SNP supporters also voted in favour of Brexit.

There's a well-known minority vein of anti-EU sentiment in the SNP, most famously voiced by Jim Sillars.

Sillars is Old Labour, who were always thoroughly Eurosceptic, whatever his current party membership. He can be relied upon by MSM to trot out anti-(modern)SNP comments in the same way Gordon Brown can be depended upon to thump his fists and shout about federalism whenever the polls get too positive.

Yesterday 19:25 DNR

How can someone be instructed what to vote?

It's called "whipping", all WM parties do it.

@HirplesWithHaggis

That may be the case, I merely state that there's a non-trivial portion of the SNP base who are also eurosceptic.

The SNP is a pretty broad church who are united by one overarching aim. I suspect they'd split quite quickly if Scotland actually achieved independence.

But would countries like Spain allow Scotland to be in the EU without the rest of the U.K.? (Am thinking about what happened to Catalan and it’s independence vote).

Sillars is Old Labour, who were always thoroughly Eurosceptic, whatever his current party membership. He can be relied upon by MSM to trot out anti-(modern)SNP comments...

Absolute total BS. Sillars started out Labour before founding the SNP in the 70s. He was married to Margo MacDonald until they were very sadly parted by death. Up to 1/3 of current SNP voters are estimated to have voted in favour of Brexit. The current SNP leadership despite its penchant for silencing internal debate does not represent the spectrum of views on the EU within SNP voters or broader Independence movement.

In fact there is a significant strand which reckons they can use EU disquiet to get Indyref2 and then quietly forget all about the EU.

The SNP were founded in 1934, and not by Jim Sillars. He started the Scottish Labour Party in 1976 - they were pro-Home Rule (as per Kier Hardie, who founded the original Labour Party with a principal of Home Rule long since abandoned.)

I agree that about a third of SNP voters are also Eurosceptic, which makes for a delicate balancing act the leadership aren't really achieving atm. The party is also riven by the GRA shenanigans, which will cost them votes.

And no, Spain will not veto an independent Scotland rejoining the EU, providing independence is gained legally. They have said so explicitly. The situation with Catalonia is constitutionally different.

Sorry Hirples for my reactionary post. Just wanted to set the record straight about Sillars' level of commitment to Party or cause.

Just done some wiki-ing about the early history which I did not know. Happy to stand corrected.

@Bloke23

"If they left the union and decided to join the EU, could they afford it?"
Firstly Scotland could not just decide to join the EU. They could apply but it could take years.

I read yesterday that if Scotland were to become an EU member then they would have austerity imposed on them by the EU because they have one of the highest National Deficits in Europe. They would be treated in the same way as Ireland and Greece were.

I do wonder how Scottish people living in England will be treated

and vice versa. And it's a nonsense because the only difference is accent. Genetically there are few differences between people living in the south of England and those living in the central belt - if you get into the Highlands and islands things change a bit.

I also think far more unites us than divides us.

But I can completely understand the anger of being ripped out of the EU because I feel it myself, although I live in England. Will someone not think of Gibraltar though, where the vote to remain was 93% and they've been utterly ignored, too? Maybe they can join Scotland in EFTA after independence...

“
I read yesterday that if Scotland were to become an EU member then they would have austerity imposed on them by the EU because they have one of the highest National Deficits in Europe. They would be treated in the same way as Ireland and Greece were.”

The deficit you speak of is a UK treasury figure and is a figure of the status quo. It is not, and all analysts admit this, indicative of an independent Scotland.

Can i ask something about the Scottish Referendum if they go for another one.

I know a few Scottish people who got to vote in the last one. They voted to remain part of the UK. None of them actually live their.
They all think Scotland is the greatest country on earth, they have houses there but it has been several years since they have set foot across the border.

If Scotland does gain independence how will that impact on people who were born and brought up there but now live in England.
Will they have to go for residency in the rest of the UK

You have to be resident in Scotland to vote in the referendum. And you get to vote if you live here regardless of your nationality. Unlike the democratic abomination which was the rigged Brexit referendum.

Post independence, people will be able to choose Scottish nationality, UK nationality, or both.

Today 16:06 Oliversmumsarmy

Can i ask something about the Scottish Referendum if they go for another one.

I know a few Scottish people who got to vote in the last one. They voted to remain part of the UK. None of them actually live their.
They all think Scotland is the greatest country on earth, they have houses there but it has been several years since they have set foot across the border.

If Scotland does gain independence how will that impact on people who were born and brought up there but now live in England.
Will they have to go for residency in the rest of the UK

Those people committed electoral fraud, but they were not alone. I recall an MN thread last time round where the OP had been asked to collude in same by family members, by forwarding their postal voting papers. As an honourable person, she didn't.

Post indy citizenship arrangements will be subject to negotiations. Rational governments would agree sensible reciprocal settlements, but it may be Boris for rUK so....

Last time the entirely normal citizenship options were confirmed in the Edinburgh agreement, which is law. The next referendum will be bound by those same terms regarding reciprocal citizenship.

That’s not a White Paper or negotiation post outcome thing.

A section 30 order making Indyref2 legally binding is in line with the Edinburgh Agreement also.