to ask you to read Operation Yellowhammer documents and see for yourself how Brexit will impact you

[chomalungma]

Just been released

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

And I wonder what Number 15 is. It's been redacted.

So much to highlight:

Impact of food and fuel prices on poorer people.
Impact exacerbated due to winter flu issues at that time of year
Lorries delayed and flow reduced to 40 - 60%

And I'm only on page 1

That's great news! I didn't realize that the reason we still didn't know the benefits of Brexit was that there simply has not been any time in the last 3 years to write them down.

That's probably why Parliament is prorogued - they need a few quiet weeks to list all the positives.

I'm sure we're all feeling very relieved.

It was supposed to be Gah. But I think Haha works better.

Chopping off a hand to fix a broken finger. The Brexit message has gone from “Britain will boom!” to “England will survive” in the space of three years or so. I’ve actually become quite scared of my fellow citizen’s stupidity and recklessness.

I don’t think there should be no deal, but however think it should be left on the table.

To get a decent deal, nothing should be ruled out. If the EU think there is a possibility that the U.K. could just leave with no deal they may be more inclined to secure a deal. However, in the current situation, they are almost certainly laughing about us and have no incentive to find a way forward as the U.K. will just have to take what the EU countries want or stay in the EU. There is no bargaining power in the current situation and IMO there is only grief for the U.K. in the way ahead.

I voted remain, but with everything that has happened I can’t see any way for us to stay in the EU, with any dignity or decent deal. Let’s just get on with dealing with a bad situation as soon as we can, with all bargaining chips left on the table! We are currently the laughing stock of the EU to be honest!

We are currently the laughing stock of the EU to be honest!

I don't think they're laughing. They're looking on with horror and confusion as to why we're going through with it.

I don’t think there should be no deal, but however think it should be left on the table

But they know that hardly anyone wants No Deal - so it's a really weird threat to leave on the table.

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned, but this is base case, not worst case.

It's also not comprehensive. It's a very shortened version.

A critical item for example will be the drop in the pound. It will significantly devalue and likely for years rather than months.

A devaluation of rhe pound means everything we buy from overseas becomes that much more expensive.

The Bank of England has said the pound will devalue, and likely to at least the level of the dollar, which is a 20-25 percent decrease.

So for example if it devalues by 25 percent. Then everything becomes 25 percent more expensive to us. The document specifically doesn't address that. I assume because of the fear it would cause. You then need to add in the average cost of good increase of 5 percent due to new tarrifs.

Which means on average we are looking at a cost of living increase in the region of 30 percent. Many families don't have thirty percent more to spend. They simply don't. Hence why lower income families will be disproportionately impacted.

My personal opinion is no deal won't happen. Because Boris wants to stay in power as do the tories. And it's one thing to make no deal happen. It's a whole other ball game to then be in power a month or two later when the public realise how bad it is.

The government, needs to quell panic. Which I understand only if they know it will never happen.

There is a negotiating game being played. But sadly so many leavers look at that document and say "it will all be fine. It's just short term disruption". When it becomes apparent what has occurred, then it's likely those same people will get very angry indeed.

So for me personally is I think this is just a game of negotiation. I don't think boris's intent is to come out with no deal.

Because if he does, he and every minister who supported him will not just be out of a job, but they will ultimately need significant police protection to maintain their security and for a long time afterwards due to the anger that sadly many people may have.

Desperate people do desperate things. So I don't think he will do it simply because of what will occur in the aftermath.

He'd have to be insane.

No deal isn't still on the table to frighten the EU and use as a bargaining chip, it's still on the table to frighten remainers into accepting the deal.

No deal isn't still on the table to frighten the EU and use as a bargaining chip, it's still on the table to frighten remainers into accepting the deal

That's a good point. I think it's both though. Everyone needs to really believe he will drive the uk over the cliff edge to stand a chance of getting a deal and then getting it approved.

The issue he has got is parliament stopping him using it. Hence the prorogue and the daft threats not to comply with the law.

Bluntness - govts own (leaked) figures are that we are LIKELY facing price increases of more like 40%!

I don't know many families that can bear their outgoings (it Won't just affect food it'll be EVERYTHING) going up by nearly half what they currently spend.

I "break even" just about each month and for me this would mean an EXTRA £400 a month I'd need to find!

Where the fuck from considering I'm disabled and on benefits I cannot possibly imagine.

It's terrifying!

Even more so I would think when you consider a likely glut of job losses meaning an overwhelming number of people suddenly needing to claim benefits - because we all know how speedy and efficient dwp are! Not!

Graphista, thanks, and yes I was being conservative...

But that's the reason I don't think it will happen, purely because of the after math and what that would mean not just for the country. But the individuals responsible for making it happen.

You'd hope, but there's plenty of vocal Leavers who are already blaming Remainers for 'delaying Brexit' - apparently everything would have been great if we'd just left immediately but those damned Remainers have spoiled it.

I'm hoping that isn't every Leave voter's mindset but many will somehow find a way to blame Remain voters for the impact of Brexit'.

Isn’t it depressing that recklessness is being associated with “strength”

Everyone needs to really believe he will drive the uk over the cliff edge to stand a chance of getting a deal and then getting it approved
that's what I think too

No deal isn't still on the table to frighten the EU and use as a bargaining chip, it's still on the table to frighten remainers into accepting the deal

^This

The Leave campaign was successful because it played on very basic fears (fears about the NHS falling over, fears about immigration, fears about the big bad EU).

They’ve got to continue that fear - eg no deal - to keep the support.

Although, as I like to point out, the vote was close and I strongly suspect the result may well be different if we did it again.

I do think the relationship with the EU needs reviewing but I was watching the world at war today and it reminded me why we ended up here.

You'd hope, but there's plenty of vocal Leavers who are already blaming Remainers for 'delaying Brexit' - apparently everything would have been great if we'd just left immediately but those damned Remainers have spoiled it

They like to forget that two key Leavers were in charge of two key posts when the Leave negotiations first started. Then they fucked up and fucked off.

HerSymphonyAndSong

“Isn’t it depressing that recklessness is being associated with “strength”

Come on, “HerSymphony”, get with the new programme - Hulk Smash.

According to Saturday's Daily Telegraph, the UK is much less reliant on food imports than we were 100 years ago. We currently import about 40% of our food, whereas we imported 70%, mostly from the colonies on the eve of the First World War.

I haven't read or heard anything from companies such as 'Hello Fresh' and 'Gousto' on how a 'no-deal' Brexit will affect them.

There must be a way round the medicines problem. At present, a friend of mine is having difficulty getting hold of the drug she takes for epilepsy.

Some people have said there will be a shortage of toilet paper. Well, it is on offer at the moment in both Morrisons and Tesco's if you want to stock up.

“According to Saturday's Daily Telegraph, the UK is much less reliant on food imports than we were 100 years ago. We currently import about 40% of our food, whereas we imported 70%, mostly from the colonies on the eve of the First World War.”

Haha at yet another “brexit will be better than the First World War” comment. You do have low standards!

Report on food imports

www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

50% of our food comes from abroad .
30% comes from the EU

Of course, it's the kind of food that comes from abroad that's important.

What percentage of our FRESH food comes from abroad?

Lots, apparently

www.glotechrepairs.co.uk/news/the-uks-top-food-imports-and-where-they-come-from/

This amount of fruit and veg came from all over the world, with almost a fifth (19%) of British fruit and veg imports coming from Spain, 11% being exported from the Netherlands and 5% coming from South Africa.

UK Meat Imports

Meat, another staple of the British diet, is also heavily imported. Chicken and beef especially come in from a host of different countries before being eaten in the UK.

Our primary exporters of chicken, of which we received £392,415,831 worth, were the Netherlands with 43%, Poland with 17%, and Ireland with 10%.

Making up for their bronze medal in chicken provisions though, Ireland were the clear winners when it came to exporting beef to the Britain, making up a whopping 67% of the value of our beef imports.

So this was a vegan coup all along!

The eu are not laughing at us they are not only constantly fire fighting each new crisis they face, caused probably by their in action. They also have too many internal issues to deal with.

The eu are not laughing at us they are not only constantly fire fighting each new crisis they face, caused probably by their in action. They also have too many internal issues to deal with.

Delusional claptrap - you're right that they aren't laughing at us though, they are far too civil to mock the afflicted.

This is the agenda for the meeting next month, budgeting and strategic planning - something our shambolic non-leadership haven't done since Cameron was elected.
www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2019/10/17-18/

If there were "internal issues" keeping them busy - wouldn't they have been on the agenda?

Was Retired65 having a laugh? Are we supposed to be relieved that only 40% of our food is imported?

Bluntness100 unfortunately I don't think even self preservation is a guarding factor especially for Johnson! If SHTF he'll just fuck off to New York and stay there! And hire the best security money can buy - he's hardly short a bob or several million!

Less privileged tory/no deal MPs might need to consider that aspect but quite honestly I think they're arrogant/distanced enough from reality to not think it a genuine issue - if we do end up crashing out though they may well be quickly disabused of those ideas, with I suspect the first "hits" coming due to the situation in Northern Ireland reigniting violence.

Seems to me a good many MPs have forgotten that when the troubles were very active (for lack of a better term) THEY were a prime target!