To think that No Deal Brexit is the only option now

[Bearbehind]

I’m a staunch Remainer, I think Brexit is absolute madness but I can’t see any way out of this mess except No Deal now - the division is too great and views are too entrenched

Leavers insist it will all be fine so the
only option is to do it and see what happens

The way I see it, anything less will just lead to the uprise of the Brexit Party until we ‘leave properly’ anyway.

We might as well just jump of the cliff now. If it’s all rosey then great.

If it’s not at least we can start to repair the damage sooner rather than later

You have no idea. It's tragic.

I merely point out that Frost is not 'negotiating' - he's presenting an idea. Johnson's team is keen to portray this as the EU softening their stance (see Newstart1337 a page ago) when it is nothing of the sort.

I would like to see a mini trade deal being done in conjunction with the WA concentrating on the main goods that pass over the land border.

From a practical point, how do you envisage that happening? How do you check that what is on the manifest is what's actually in the truck, without stopping it at the border and looking?
From a political point, the EU has already ruled out mini-deals because they are another version of the UK wanting a pick'n'mix Brexit, which the EU has already rejected.

I would like to see a mini trade deal being done in conjunction with the WA concentrating on the main goods that pass over the land border. Thus no need for a back stop

Double this was also my thinking, anyone know why this wouldn’t be an option, am I missing something obvious?

Oops didn’t refresh before I posted - was still on page 17!

From a political point, the EU has already ruled out mini-deals because they are another version of the UK wanting a pick’n’mix Brexit, which the EU have already rejected

It wouldn’t be a series of mini deals or pick n mix - it would be one mini deal which go some way in addressing the unique border situation that we have.

Exactly time4chocolate. It's not a series of mini deals it's one to specifically deal with the land border.

And what would the one mini deal cover? A good, a people, a finished good, an ingredient, a cow, a sheep, a chicken?

It wouldn’t be a series of mini deals or pick n mix

Of course it would. Asking for an exemption for 'the main goods that pass over the border' becomes the first request. Followed by an exemption for UK-assembled cars - because the auto industry employs a million people. Followed by an exemption to allow UK-issued EORI numbers to remain valid so that UK firms can compete with EU firms, and an exemption for the financial services industry … and so on.

The unique border situation that the UK has is that it is signatory to an international treaty that dictates the relationship between the RoI and NI. It is entirely based on the RoI and NI being in the same customs union and single market. By leaving the EU, the UK breaks the obligations of this treaty. No amount of creative thinking, alternative solutions, oomph or wiff-waff can alter this.

My second point was that even with a mini-deal, from a practical point of view, how do you envisage the control of the 'main goods' and all the other goods happening? How do you check that what is on the manifest is what's actually in the truck, without stopping it at the border and looking? How does the UK and Ireland physically manage 300+ crossing points to prevent smuggling - or is the UK going to blow up or blockade all of the 'unapproved' crossings, just as happened in the 1970s?

Boris: Get rid of the backstop or we leave with no deal.

EU : Backstop stays, off ye hop so.

Politics in 2019. This i what out forefathers fought for - stupidity.

So to summarise, the backstop isn’t happening, mini trade deal won’t work (apparently), there won’t be revoke or a people’s vote so ‘no deal’ it is then. There are no other options left.

I would be interested to know what the EU/Ireland border arrangements are in the event of a no deal.

I would be interested to know what the EU/Ireland border arrangements are in the event of a no deal

Me too. In theory it’s straight to a hard border isn’t it?

Hard border until the democrats block any U.K.-US trade deal due to the risk to GFA. Then the U.K. gov will likely climb down.

I've read that the EU are very well prepared for no deal Bear. Calais is ready the ROI are ready but of course the doom sayers won't tell you that.

They will certainly be more prepared than we are but the big question is over the border

Everything so far has been about avoiding a hard border in 2021, no deals means we need one in 2 months

Me too. In theory it’s straight to a hard border isn’t it?

I’m not so sure Bear, the EU have reiterated there will be no hard border and they have also confirmed their ‘no deal’ plans have been completed.

But it can’t be anything else, if it could that would be the solution for a deal too

With my conspiracy head on this morning, I think this is exactly the point.

They will go for something that has already been dismissed as not possible and I’m going for the checks away from the border option.

I've read that the EU are very well prepared for no deal Bear. Calais is ready the ROI are ready but of course the doom sayers won't tell you that.

The mainland EU has long been ready for Brexit. The RoI is as ready as it can be, but there is still no resolution to the border issue. Doom-sayers (whoever they are) are not concerned about the EU's preparations - they are more concerned with the refusal of some of the UK politicians to face reality and the lack of preparation on the UK's part. Operation Browntrousers Yellowhammer is the government's own assessment which predicts shortages, chaos and civil unrest rather than the rosy fantasy promised by Leave.

I see that those politicians who are using their democratic right to oppose a No Deal Brexit are no longer being called 'collaborators.' Today Johnson calls them 'a coalition of anti-democrats' who are 'actively seeking to sabotage' the UK's position. This is the same PM who wants to flood the undemocratic, unelected House of Lords with 'Brexit heros' like the guy who has already made hundreds of millions of the back of Brexit (and donated some of these gains to Johnson's campaigns).

They will go for something that has already been dismissed as not possible and I’m going for the checks away from the border option.

But how can they control what actually crosses the border?

Unlike us, in a worst case scenario, ROI is pretty much self sufficient in food. My Mum told me stories of her fellow (wealthier) nursing student colleagues coming back from trips home to Ireland in the late forties with food. Same old same old.

They will go for something that has already been dismissed as not possible and I’m going for the checks away from the border option.

Technology is still years away from enabling an invisible border - and a 'soft border', an 'invisible border' or 'a border 5km away from the border' is still a border.

Technology to prevent smuggling and counterfeit goods is still reliant on Customs Officers inspecting the load to check that what is written on the document is actually what is on the truck. It is also reliant on international intelligence about criminal activity, which the UK is also cutting itself off from.

Karen Wheeler is the British customs agency’s senior official in charge of post-Brexit border planning. “There is no technology solution which would mean that you could do customs controls and processes and not have a hard border,” “There is no magic solution that would make that go away. If there was, trust me, we would have found it.”

They wouldn’t be able to control everything that comes across the border. There is no option, other than a hard border, that would allow that type of control. The EU won’t do that (quite rightly) and neither will we.

As an interim measure it would focus EU/UK minds to get a permanent solution sorted rather than us be stuck in a never ending backstop because it suits one side more than the other.

The EU won’t do that (quite rightly) and neither will we.

time I really didn’t have you down as one of the ’we don’t it and they don’t want it so we won’t e a border’ types

How on earth do you think that aligns with WTO requirements regarding 3rd countries and most favoured nation rules?

As an interim measure it would focus EU/UK minds to get a permanent solution sorted rather than us be stuck in a never ending backstop because it suits one side more than the other.

Are you suggesting a hard border as an interim measure? It would cost millions in infrastructure costs, require thousands of people to build and control and would immediately become a symbol of division, likely to provoke physical attack.

The Good Friday Agreement is the semi-permanent solution to the question of how the island of Ireland should be governed. The Backstop (which is the UK's own proposal, not the EU's) is an attempt to resolve the contradiction of the UK wanting to leave the Customs Union and Single Market whilst at the same time not having a border between two Economic Areas.

Breaking news is that government will be prorogued in mid Sept with the Queens Speech being 14th October allowing no time for MPs to challenge a No Deal Brexit. John Bercow has already said he would try to stop this.

That is horrendous - we really are in dark times now

My only hope is it becomes apparent how bad it is very quickly and we can start to repair the damage immediately