I think a lot of the 'fear of males' (which I agree happens having been sexually assaulted by one) and 'nobody can change sex' (which I have also made clear I accept as a transsexual) is a powerful argument against self ID. As is the likelihood it would allow in fetishists, who are largely policed out by the current gatekeeping.
But then it is extended into arguing the fact that trans people offend at the same rate as men, based largely on one Swedish study which is not as clear cut as it seems. The data was true for one period when psychiatric care was less good and then the rates decreased once these were stepped up. The author of the study made this clear in an on line chat. I read it all at the time and it was clear they felt the study was being used to prove an argument that the data was never meant to establish. When this is mentioned on here it is suggested that the author was coerced into saying this by trans activists.
Now I did not get that impression from the discussion of the data at the time. But I will agree that IF there was solid data that this is true and transsexual women post GRS offend at the same rate as men my views would change considerably.
I just do not think we are at that point and I totally support any serious investigation of the data to find out.
I would add that, prior to the GRA in 2004, any transsexual woman found guilty of a crime had no legal protection. They were legally male. There was no culture of self ID and pander to beliefs as now. They would go into a male prison. And post GRS and years on hormones would be extremely vulnerable to male assault or rape.
This was, I would have thought, a pretty big deterrent to keep heads down and quietly stay out of trouble. The excellent 1990s BBC movie starring Steve Mackintosh as a TS woman, Different For Girls, covers this angle well when the character ends up at a police station. Watch it and compare with how things are today where any cross dresser is arrested and if they say they are a woman charged as a woman. Obviously nonsensically.
So I am think perhaps we should try to answer this question. I think it is a key one. And I suspect many of those who are going down as trans women in prison are actually sexual predators playing the system. In fact I saw an article the other day where one prison warder said it was a well known game to keep identifying as trans to mess with the system.
This is a key argument over access to spaces like toilets and we need an objective study to answer it independently.