To wonder how many of you are ready for hard Brexit now

[keyboardkate]

I took on the mantle to start another thread. If that is not allowed, Mods delete the thread, I am not sure of the protocol. But it certainly is an interesting discussion!

If allowed to stay as my OP, let's go!

bellinisurge I can’t yet we haven’t left

@Rosstac - I admire your enthusiasm in the face of it all. We actually need people like this.

Rosstac, i work in a skilled industry with very low migrant worker levels, pay rises are a thing of the past, due to the Global crash of 2008, unskilled wages have by contrast had year on year rises.

the interest rate cut wasnt passed on to home loaners!

£ is way down against a basket of currencies

Leaving the EU in the face of more and more tariff wars is reckless

Unfinishedkitchen, what a classy but of delightful charm you are. You sound exactly the sort of person that Remainers think Leave voters are.
Quite amazing really. nothing to say so let's hurl a few swearwords around. Perhaps you voted remain from an ignorant biased little person point of view. Desnt sound like it was the work or a rational person

Bellinnsurge I know a good few who were very unsure who voted remain simply for that reason. They were afraid of change and the unknown, whether good or bad, who knows

Justine Greening has asked for a second referendum now, which a comment that it should have three choices; out with hard Brexit, T. May's deal option or the optimum to stay. I think this will be a fantastic way forward.

Except the deal option doesn't actually exist.

Justine Greening has asked for a second referendum now, which a comment that it should have three choices; out with hard Brexit, T. May's deal option or the optimum to stay. I think this will be a fantastic way forward.

Any vote that includes 3 options risks none of the options achieving a majority - i.e. over 50% of the votes. So it ends up with a result where if votes are split say 33%, 33%, 34%, the 34% option wins,, but 66% of voters are against it.

As for Brexit; A Hard Brexit is a no-go as it means an Irish border and food shortages, medicine shortages, millions in job losses and the real prospect of civil unrest in the UK . May's latest proposal is still cherry-picking (the UK wants all of the benefits with none of the obligations) so the EU will reject it, as will Parliament (because it ties the UK to certain EU rules). The third option is to Remain, which is the only sensible option now that it is becoming clearer that the 'Leave' promises were nothing but fantasy and that the great faith placed in Trump as the UK's saviour was dangerously misplaced.

To remain in the Eu is the only sensible option, but this assumes they will have us, and not on punishing terms. My sense is that they will - that everyone will breathe an almighty sigh of relief and try and move on. I'm optimistic!

It's hard to see how the Conservative party could survive this outcome but people do seem to have short memories, especially if JC's next manifesto is too 'socialist' for those Brexiteers who are middle class, older homeowners.

Corbyn's brand has been tarnished by the press and by the Conservatives constantly using him as the bogeyman who will turn the UK into a new Venezuela - this helps them to maintain a narrative that says ' You might not like everything we do, but under Corbyn everything will be worse.' Theresa May has been using this theme at every debate since she became PM.

The Conservatives will be in difficulties from the moment that Labour replace Corbyn with someone like Starmer, a respected politician that the centre/moderate voters could support.

Brexit isn't going to "destroy the UK". I'm a staunch Remainer and even I don't believe that. A hard Brexit will shit up our economy for many years and lots of people will suffer. I guess Scotland may vote to leave the Uk as a result but still "fragment" is a more apt word than destroy.

I also doubt it will destroy the UK. Remain voter, here. I predict it'll be a bit shit for quite a long time. Like the Thatcher era. Which I lived through too.
The shitness will be a self inflicted wound.

Labour can't replace corbyn with a moderate like kier starmer - that was ed milliband's legacy - and possibly the key reason why we are where we are - activists will choose the next Labour leader and unless there is a surge in moderate members of the Labour Party, it can only now go one way.

Put Yvette Cooper up as leader and I'd go back to Labour. If anyone cares about my opinion

Brexit isn't going to "destroy the UK".

I hope not, but even a Brexiter cheerleader like Peter North thinks that the impact of a Hard Brexit will be profound: "In the first year or so we are going to lose a lot of manufacturing. Virtually all JIT export manufacturing will fold inside a year."

The World Bank has put numbers on this and the analysis suggests that the UK will suffer a loss of trade with the EU of 62% of services and 50% of goods. So just think through the implications of this: if you work for a business that deals with the EU, will you employer be able to continue to trade if the business loses 50% of customers? Will you still have a job? If you do have a job, will your employer be able or willing to pay you the same wage as now? Or will Raab and Johnson succeed in removing the minimum wage and working time laws, so that you might still have a job, but you'll be paid far less than now. If 50% of the people in your community lost their jobs, what would the impact be - on shops, on tax receipts, on social services? If you, or your partner, or son or daughter lost their jobs (and in some communities you might all lose your jobs) what would the impact be?

If food, medicine and fuel has to be rationed, how will this impact on you? Will someone in your family need to give up their job in order to spend hours queuing for just the basics?

The UK survived the Thatcher era by managing to attract foreign investment - e.g. Nissan, Honda, Hitachi - to replace the British businesses that had gone to the wall. In addition, there was North Sea revenue to act as a cushion for a few years, and the UK was still the key international financial centre. Post-Brexit, manufacturing will move out and the finance industry will be locked out of the EU and world markets, so there might be nothing left on which to build the recovery.

It's ironic that we're discussing degrees of hardship/problems/'shit' when JRM, Davis and Johnson keep insisting that Brexit represents the gateway to golden opportunities - without ever explaining how this magical thinking is going to materialise.

No, it probably won't "destroy" the UK but travel, food, transport, and manufacturing costs (to name but a few) will all rise, as will contingent bureaucracy (which is ironic considering the accusations of bureaucracy directed at the EU institutions). Probably about ten long and costly years, where civil servants spend time, energy and money trying to get us back in to a position which in all likelihood will be worse than the one we enjoyed as full EU members.

It won't destroy the UK.

Thankfully most of the areas that voted remain will see very low impacts.

its the areas that voted leave that have to be worried.

Justine Greening's suggestion is a tiny beacon of hope in this complete mess.
No-one is happy.
IMO Brexit is a massive disaster waiting to happen- either we get a hard Brexit which would ruin the economy to a greater or lesser extent for years, or else we get a soft Brexit with all of the constraints which the EU may place on us but no say in the running of it.
Surely now we can see what is happening, remaining has to be the best option.

Sky news have just reported that the PM has definitively rejected a second referendum.

I think it is a good sign that it was raised as an option though, (alrhough I personally favour a parliamentary vote on the final deal). It demonstrates the need for different solutions and acknowledges that the current situation is a dog's dinner. Justine Greening has at least opened the door for further debate.

I think Havana really put the full story together very well.

mixed- I do too.

And Scoop- agree with all you said. I would add that I think May has to go.

*Thankfully most of the areas that voted remain will see very low impacts.

its the areas that voted leave that have to be worried*

I disagree. People who voted Leave because they felt they had nothing to lose, still have little or nothing to lose - but I agree that things could get even worse for them.

People who voted Remain because they have jobs that depend on the EU, they have an outlook that says that people from Cologne or Copenhagen are no different from people from Cardiff or Coventry, they have colleagues and neighbours from other EU countries, they travel to the EU for work or leisure - the lives of these people will be completely changed. They stand to lose their jobs, their neighbours and colleagues, their social circles - and their whole outlook on the world has been dismissed.

I'm not sure that people who voted remain do have jobs that depend on the EU.

The areas that voted leave have the highest amount of exports there and the highest amount of jobs dependent on it.

These areas will suffer the most, they defiately had a lot to lose, despite being convinced that they didn't.

Essentially Brexit has been the best ever example of moral hazard, the people who were encouraged to vote for it will bear the cost, whilst those who did the encouraging will not be effected.

They will be.

Sunderland for one, is fucked.

People who voted Leave because they felt they had nothing to lose, still have little or nothing to lose - but I agree that things could get even worse for them.

Yes, I think they felt that they had nothing to lose, but they may be surprised when things get a lot worse. But, this government has been amazing at placing the blame elsewhere, so no doubt anything bad that happens after brexit will be the fault of something else.