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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To be absolutely terrified about these Brexit scenario predictions...

359 replies

freegazelle · 19/04/2018 08:13

I think its so important people see this study based on the governments own analysis. Also reflects similar studies (one carried out by a free market US think tank I remember).

"After looking at all four options available to the prime minister, the study established that in the long-term, the amount of money available for spending on public services would fall. Under the so-called Norway option, there would be £262m less a week, under the Canada model it would be £877m, while under a no deal it would be £1.25bn.

This would mean 22% less funding available for the NHS if there was a bespoke deal, and 9%, 31% and 44% less under each of the other options."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/18/each-brexit-scenario-will-leave-britain-worse-off-study-finds

OP posts:
Saltcrust · 19/04/2018 18:37

I agree with you Freegazelle, especially about the spectacular self-sabotage. It's so difficult when all the benefits we are enjoying as a member of the EU are currently taken for granted by most people, and will only be missed when they're gone and it's too late to do anything about it.

peacheachpearplum · 19/04/2018 18:37

We'll TAKE BACK CONTROL, though. Which has no price. And don't forget we will no longer be a vassal state. Don't you just love JRM

Justanotherlurker · 19/04/2018 18:44

There maybe be different healthcare systems but most are subsidised by the state, and there is high spending on healthcare in Sweden, France, Germany, Norway ect

Norway isn't in the EU, and you're ignoring a massive thing of being "subsidised by the state".

If we was to follow their lead we would have to introduce insurance and some things being not free at the point of entry , tattoo removal as an example (even with all the caveats), now I am 100% positive you would not welcome this, and the NHS has become so politicised that any government wish to do so would be political suicide, despite your obvious hate for the tories, they want power so it is a no go from them, and labour pretend to help by offloading it onto future generations hence why we are now crippled with PFI.

It needs cross party government reform and for people to be adult about the NHS instead of drawing party allegiances, it's nothing to do with brexit.

The rest of the world thinks we are mad, apart from Russia who is loving it. It's just incredible, it really is.

They don't actually, the neolibs think we are mad.

It's comparable to Trump America in so many ways. You can't even argue when people dispute the basic concept of a fact.

Oh, I see you struggle with politics in general let alone geopolitics, we are nowhere near Trump, if you did have a basic understanding, he is implementing somewhat isolationist and protectionist policies that are the exact same that the EU are.

Carry on..

Rufustheconstantreindeer · 19/04/2018 18:48

Am i missing something (very likely)

OP is not saying the NHS is bad because of Brexit

She is saying its going to get worse if we can't put the money in

I think the NHS is in trouble staffing wise due to brexit but thats not why its bust

Justanotherlurker · 19/04/2018 18:52

Don't you just love JRM

Own up to being a full on neolib Blarite with all the faults, then you can try and make this a party political situation.

Until then, this type of comment is nothing more than grandstanding and wanting to appear to be on the "right side"

Mightymucks · 19/04/2018 19:00

If we was to follow their lead we would have to introduce insurance and some things being not free at the point of entry

Or even just some checking of entitlement? You don’t get treated in Europe without an EHIC card, not even with a British passport.

You can rock up from anywhere with zero entitlement and be treated for long term, complex and expensive conditions without having to prove you’re entitled to a cent because NHS staff refuse to do it.

Probably because they know that drop in usage would cost jobs.

Justanotherlurker · 19/04/2018 19:00

Especially considering the City and a huge chunk of businesses are about to leave, I'm intrigued that people think we can recover a billion a week by taxing the rich more.

Really, any back up of that assertion, because there is a hell of lot of investment and expansion still going on, even in the banking sector.

I'm ignoring the mental gymnastics you will pull when it comes to GE and ignoring big business warning about a JC government taking control though, like they did at the last election.

Business will take the easiest route for redundancies, brexit being the easiest, whilst some are being lost, it is no way near a "huge chunk"

sameoldsame · 19/04/2018 19:04

Chill
It will all be fine
It always is, no one ever died from this kind of thing

freegazelle · 19/04/2018 19:05

@Lurker

Norway is in the EEA which would be good enough for me.

Brexit is being supported by both the alt-right and the alt-left. The Rees-Moggs and the Corbyns. The former wants disaster capitalism, and the latter, disaster communism. Fascist movements in the EU welcome Brexit, as does Trump. Brexit is part of the global resurgence of fascism, even if the UK is not a fascist state itself.

Generally centrists from across the three parties, and across the world, are against this. As for hating the Tories, I'd vote for Cameron and Osbourne tories over Corbyn's Lexiteer labour party any day. I hate austerity, but austerity Britain is going to look like paradise compared to what we are in for if we leave the EU. I'm not against keynesian economics, but even for that we need our economy to be in certain health. We need trade, industry, migrant workers and affordable goods.

OP posts:
freegazelle · 19/04/2018 19:11

Of course banks are going to start moving a chunk of their operations and personnel to Europe if they don't get passporting rights, which seems very likely. There's one link, I'm not going to bother putting everything up.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-banks-moving-jobs-from-london-months-frankfurt-dublin-paris-theresa-may-a8066671.html

OP posts:
Justanotherlurker · 19/04/2018 19:12

OP is not saying the NHS is bad because of Brexit

No, she framed the argument as the NHS then used it again a couple of posts in, thats what the argument has become.

She is saying its going to get worse if we can't put the money in

And that is nothing to do with brexit, when she is comparing subsidized healthcare as a comparison for more money. I doubt she would be so willing to axe some free at point healthcare needs and introduce some insurance policies without screaming about going down a US model and muh evil tories.

This is just a poster who wants to try and paint it left v right issue without understanding the complexities that she, is is in fact, in favour of a right wing dream and would, with mental gymnastics play right into the soft bigotry of low expectations.

peacheachpearplum · 19/04/2018 19:13

Until then, this type of comment is nothing more than grandstanding and wanting to appear to be on the "right side" It isn't party political, I think he is vile and creepy and it isn't because he is a Conservative, it is because he is him. We aren't a vassal state and typical of the rubbish he talks.

Pikehau · 19/04/2018 19:16

This was a comment in the FT..... just another thing to throw in the mix....

Nothing on the leave side adds up. I can’t quite believe people are willing to suffer and make themselves poorer for something they cant articulate....

WHAT will be worth loosing billions for? WHAT????

To be absolutely terrified about these Brexit scenario predictions...
Justanotherlurker · 19/04/2018 19:26

It isn't party political, I think he is vile and creepy and it isn't because he is a Conservative, it is because he is him. We aren't a vassal state and typical of the rubbish he talks.

Many people feel the same about JC, but to single just JRM is making it party political and showing your stance, even if you cannot see it.

Kursk · 19/04/2018 19:31

No point being worried about something you can’t control.

You should assume that in 5 years time there will be no NHS, no pensions, no benifits, and life will be hard, bleak and depressing.

Start planning accordingly

frankchickens · 19/04/2018 19:32

WHAT will be worth loosing[sic] billions for? WHAT????

Now that's more like it, but still not terror exactly.

Justanotherlurker · 19/04/2018 19:32

This was a comment in the FT..... just another thing to throw in the mix....

I agree as I am a remainer, what I am being contrarian over is that the OP and many remainers need to accept that they are leaning right wing with regards to economics.

People like the OP are trying to paint this and NHS as left wing issue, and shows its not just brexiters are not really informed, for every daily mail reader there is an Independent reader, both have little grasp of the situation above headlines and outrage, OP being one of them with the "can't sleep at night"

freegazelle · 19/04/2018 19:34

@Kursk

That's what I'm doing.

The thing is we can indirectly control it. A massive swing in public opinion could mean we at least stay in the single market and minimise the damage. That's why I bothered to post those new stats up. But unfortunately people would rather be poor than admit they were wrong.

OP posts:
frankchickens · 19/04/2018 19:34

We need trade, industry, migrant workers and affordable goods

Why do we need migrant workers?

Justanotherlurker · 19/04/2018 19:36

Now that's more like it, but still not terror exactly.

I stubbed my toe today and blamed brexit, does that count?

freegazelle · 19/04/2018 19:38

@lurker

I beg you to read that "busting the lexit myths" paper I put up earlier. If you consider "right wing" as supporting a social democratic welfare state, than yes I'm right wing. Corbyn's decent domestic policies will have no hope of implementation in disastrous context which will follow Brexit.

OP posts:
frankchickens · 19/04/2018 19:38

The brakes on my car seem to be sticking on a bit. Bloody Brexit!

freegazelle · 19/04/2018 19:40

@frank

Crops are already literally rotting in the fields. And noticed the massive staffing crisis in the NHS? That's just for starters.

OP posts:
freegazelle · 19/04/2018 19:40

GF

OP posts:
Kursk · 19/04/2018 19:41

freegazelle

Yep it’s not going to be pretty.

We left the UK to start a new and better life. Our family remaining in the UK is moving money out the country. Paying off debt, and stockpiling food and medications.

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