To be absolutely terrified about these Brexit scenario predictions...

[freegazelle]

I think its so important people see this study based on the governments own analysis. Also reflects similar studies (one carried out by a free market US think tank I remember).

"After looking at all four options available to the prime minister, the study established that in the long-term, the amount of money available for spending on public services would fall. Under the so-called Norway option, there would be £262m less a week, under the Canada model it would be £877m, while under a no deal it would be £1.25bn.

This would mean 22% less funding available for the NHS if there was a bespoke deal, and 9%, 31% and 44% less under each of the other options."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/18/each-brexit-scenario-will-leave-britain-worse-off-study-finds

Yes, but even highly respected organisations come up with the most dire predictions that never come true.

The IMF predicted economic meltdown if we didn’t join the Euro. Not only did that not happen but it was a massive advantage to us when the economics crisis hit in 2008.

The predictions before the referendum were terrible too. A Leave vote would result in instant recession, with soaring unemployment and inflation. None of it happened, in fact employment levels rose, and inflation has just reduced slightly.

Don’t imagine for a minute that staying in the EU is going to be safe and cosy, although I admit that trying to find any news about everything that is going wrong over there is utterly impossible to find in any British paper.

Merkel’s position of authority has taken a massive hit and Macron is becoming much more influential, this is massively pissing off other members, especially Holland, which has a big problem with Euroscepticism. Italy has just voted in a lot more Euroscepticism, anti-migrant parties into their parliament, and they still don’t have a government. Greece still has debt around 86,000 billion euros, which it will never be able to pay back.

There is plenty more over there to worry about too, not least the upcoming accession of Albania and Macedonia, two more basket cases wanting handouts.

The reason I say it is because these threads always go the same way and end up in an insulting bun fight.

You don't have to post if the end of the NHS bores you You don't need to be rude. Of course I care about the NHS but please don't be under any illusion that this will be caused by Brexit - that is extremely naive.

I don't get it - mnetters don't seem to get bored of worrying about education, health, childcare - don't you understand that Brexit is going to affect all of these things along with everything else? This isn't some niche issue.

Think of the effect austerity has had. And then consider an almost HALVING of the budget on top of that under a no deal brexit. It's a catastrophe.

I was awake for half the night worrying about this. I don't know why so many are still in denial.

The NHS is still basically functional. You still get treatment free at the point of delivery.

You think that will continue if they almost HALF the budget? When actually, as the NHS is undergoing this current crisis, it has actually seen increases in funding? (though cuts in real terms).

Such a bizarre train of though - yeah, everything is fucked anyway, so who cares if its destroyed completely.

@idobelieveinfairies86 I hope to hell you're not referring to disability support in your rant.

I don't get it - mnetters don't seem to get bored of worrying about education, health, childcare - don't you understand that Brexit is going to affect all of these things along with everything else? This isn't some niche issue.

At the last count there were approximately 88 trillion threads spreading the misery about this. On EVERY SINGLE ONE people post hand-wringing despair about the future, and debate extensively all the ways that people were variously hoodwinked, misled, lied too and are stupid, old, white, racist bigots.

Anyone who posts an opposing view is either vilified or patronised or both.

Feel free to keep up this valuable tradition (on the wrong board).

No no no, you are forgetting the extra £350 million a week that the NHS will get by being out of EU 😅

It’s been done to the death, and could be argued from breakfast time til the end of time, but my opinion is that it’s and absolute shit show and it’s a vote that should have NEVER been given to the public.

especially Holland, which has a big problem with Euroscepticism. Having spent time in Holland recently I can attest to this anecdotally of course amongst the "ordinary" Dutch folk I met.

Freegazelle, I feel the same as you. It is a source of huge worry to me that people just ignore the govt reports and that we are just sleepwalking into disaster. I really think we are. You won't change the minds of the 'oh, worse predictions have happened or the it'll be alright in the end' brigades though so I don't know what to do. I always get accused of being dramatic on these threads, so the only thing I can do is prepare for the worst for my family.

Half the threads in AIBU are in the wrong board, but report it i don't care.

This is the first study done based on the government's newly released analysis. This is new news.

The IMF is inherently biased towards preserving the status quo, and the same IMF that was asking austerity measures were not strong enough for Greece, and have backed many many Tory policies.

Don't be fooled into thinking that it was just leavers who were misinformed, there is a lot of mental gymnastics going on with a lot of Remainers who up until the vote, wantin an end to NeoLibralsm, support life long anti eu JC's socialist policies that that require us to leave the EU and soft bigotry of low expectations that only immigrants should be expected to live in crappy HMO's over the summer months and work the fields.

Most people who "cant sleep at night" in fear of brexit usually only have read headline policies on how to tackle Education/NHS/Housing problem, and the answer essentially boils down to Tax the rich more!!

It is the rich and powerful that want to stay in the EU, they want cheap mobile labour etc etc.

And the no doubt talk of "the far right" in britain ignore the fact the real far right is far higher and is on the rise a lot more within EU countries.

The world is going through a period of change, brexit is a tiny part of that, and the associated volatility might produce unexpected results in surprising places and ways.

I'm a remainer before I get jumped on.

OK, fill your boots (well fill your echo chamber) I hope it makes you feel better (or worse if that's what you want). I won't report this - it wouldn't be fair MN didn't move the others.

MN is about 90% remoaner so you should find plenty of people to be absolutely terrified with.

I was awake for half the night worrying about this.

But realistically how is this going to help you in the long run? Are you seeking help for anxiety?

Justanotherlurker

An incredibly sensible post.

It's a lie that "socialist" policies require us to leave the EU, unless you want full communism ala North Korea.

The EU is not the Eurozone.

There is nothing to stop the EU nationalising industries (look at scandinavia).

It's a myth that EU migrants bring down wages of British workers - well, a tiny tiny amount in two unskilled sectors - care and labour in construction. The "posted workers" thing is barely an issue, and the EU is tackling it.

It's really odd to express concerns at the conditions of EU workers to advocate their detention and deportation and take away their free movement rights in the UK. It's equally odd to think that the break down of the social welfare state and industry will help British workers.

I hate Corbyn, he sounded like Farage at the conference.

I absolutely despair.

I absolutely despair.

Good work, carry on, you will find many many friends here to share your despair.

@just @user

These leftist lies about Brexit are the absolute worst.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/02/no-you-don-t-have-leave-single-market-renationalise

"Busting the lexit myths"
d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/in/pages/14074/attachments/original/1517224151/lexit_paper_finalONLINE.pdf?1517224151

@frank

funny, haven't found many friends so far. So far its just posts complaining about how all of mumsnet are remainers - not sure where they are.

I know a few people fed up with austerity who voted Brexit ‘because it can’t get worse’

Of course it bloody can

....about how all of mumsnet are remainers - not sure where they are.

They'll be along soon :)

Also there seems to be a really bizarre argument here, that seeing as euro-skeptic neo-nazis are on the rise in Europe, we should join the trend?!

The truth is , no one can really know anything. We have to wait and see. I am quite shocked how the newspapers sell their papers with pro and anti brexit. To get a balanced view you need to read contrasting papers.
Most of us read the paper that reflects our existing views. Not especially helpful. Recently I have realised Telegraph (strongly pro Brexit) Guardian very strongly anti, Times and Independent anti.
Tells me more about the editors than the facts. If you are getting stressed about it, stop reading scare stories, they are all guesswork. Over the last 60 years, I have realised that politicians cock up all the time, we cope and move on. This is not WW3. Newspapers just need to sell copy. Good news never sells papers

Our borders will be secure, no more of those nasty refugee / terrorists type who keep stealing our jobs and corrupting our children. And most importantly we will have our god given right to have our blue passports again. Rule Britannia 🇬🇧
😳🤦‍♀️🙄
I really do despair op
Yanbu

See?

@bishop did u @ me accidentally cos I didn't mention disability support. My own dds disabled so?

Not saying funding should be cut for support services but if people who run/work in the support services,
xare demanding £20 pens instead of 20p biros then they need to tell them straight!