To be absolutely terrified about these Brexit scenario predictions...

[freegazelle]

I think its so important people see this study based on the governments own analysis. Also reflects similar studies (one carried out by a free market US think tank I remember).

"After looking at all four options available to the prime minister, the study established that in the long-term, the amount of money available for spending on public services would fall. Under the so-called Norway option, there would be £262m less a week, under the Canada model it would be £877m, while under a no deal it would be £1.25bn.

This would mean 22% less funding available for the NHS if there was a bespoke deal, and 9%, 31% and 44% less under each of the other options."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/18/each-brexit-scenario-will-leave-britain-worse-off-study-finds

I think the NHS is going to lose a lot of the frills, extras, choices and courtesies it has acquired over the years and revert to being point of care, like it or lump it provision. If you want more than the basics, you will have to go private.

It's about nasty reactionaries and everyone else. I'm a left leaning liberal also but said I would vote for an Osbourne-Cameron remaining tory party over JC Brexit labour party. short term austerity > long term decline and loss of rights.

But you are falling into the nasty reactionaries though, not sleeping because of brexit, NHS collapse??

If you do admit that short term austerity was necessary you would then have to through go so many mental gymnastics to justify freedom of movement that it becomes a socialist ideal, other than a neoliberal workforce idea.

@Skating

I agree that's the route its going down now, and that's even with increases in funding. But with such a drastic cut, I don't think it will even manage that. And obviously the vast majority will not be able to go private.

@peacheachpearplum

To put it bluntly, I was asking for a coherent post that wasn't just whataboutism.

You can embrace being a neoliberal, it's part and parcel of being pro EU

People are just bored of talking about Brexit now. The dedicated Brexit board is as dead as a dodo these days because nothing anyone says is going to make the slightest difference to the eventual outcome.
I’m sure nearer the time ( next March? ) things will hot up again, but generally speaking, people are just getting on with their lives & not thinking about Brexit.
It’s happening and that’s it.

@lurker

I don't think austerity is necc. I was making a point that i'd vote for a remainer tory party even though i disagree with the rest of their policies.

Yes freedom of movement comes with a free market. I don't give a shit, I still support freedom of movement, and it's a myth that it has decreased brit workers wages in almost all cases. So as a lefty there is nothing about FOM to object to. Corbyn has been spouting lies about this.

YABVU, and I say this as someone who voted ‘remain’ and doesn’t believe leaving the EU is a good thing

BUT..... These are predictions for 2034!!... Reputable economists are often very wrong just 1 or 2 years ahead. No forecast can reasonably predict 16 years ahead with any confidence whatsoever! These economic models are only of academic interest only and absolutely NOT a forecast that you should expect to be delivered....

Just think, 16 years ago we hadn’t even had the Iraq War let alone the financial crash! It’s like being terrified when there’s a prediction of a blizzard in 6 weeks time when weather forecasts can’t predict accurately more than 4 day’s ahead, 7 days max.

Speak for yourself Echo2. I am not bored of Brexit at all. It's too important an issue to dismiss and say "it's happening, so what's the point of bothering" primarily because there are a lot of detailed issues surrounding HOW we leave and what sort of deal we leave with. I am a member of an active lobbying group, I am attending meetings across Europe, writing to MPs, and along with others, trying to make my voice heard to influence the outcome of the negotiations.

Of course YANBU. I feel as though I'm living in a history lesson - so this is how fascism starts. The lifelong feeling of living in a society that makes some kind of sense has gone. Democracy doesn't work. And what is behind it all - mad ideology or just money?
And I am absolutely sick to death of the incredibly stupid people who pop up on every Brexit thread to tell us that there is no point thinking about the future because "it's only guesswork, anything can happen, we just have to stop worrying and wait and see". I see that they have gone beyond that with you, OP, with their suggestions that you see your GP for worrying about what the fuckers are doing to our country.

Yanbu. I am certain this will inevitably result in us being a substantially poorer country.

coconutella I hear what you are saying but you don't have to be a world-class economist to predict that voluntarily removing yourself from the world's largest trading block is likely to have a detrimental effect on your economy.

incredibly stupid people
See? That's more like it.

This isn't like predicting the market or a war. This isn't an economic theory. This is predicting the impact of leaving the world's biggest trading block looking at the impact that alternative models will have on our finances as they stand, along with hypothetical new trade deals comparable with Canada's (ie, ones that already exist). It's actually fairly straight forward. They didn't pull these figures from a hat.

I probably should stop worrying so much for my personal wellbeing, but I refuse to apologise for talking about it. It's too important.

Yes freedom of movement comes with a free market. I don't give a shit, I still support freedom of movement, and it's a myth that it has decreased brit workers wages in almost all cases

I think you are showing your lack of knowledge of the situation wrt brexit, you will not see it, but you are not as left leaning as you want to signal.

To follow on from my previous point, even if these predictions were believable, they represent the difference between what the economics expect were we to remain in the EU. Assuming they expected 2.5% annual growth equates to 40%+ to 2034. That more than offsets all but the worst scenario.... so even this study doesn’t support the apocalyptic conclusions being given by some of the doom-mongers on here!

Also love the way that anyone who thinks that leaving the EU is a bad idea is obviously biased, and nothing they say about why it's a bad idea should be listened to, whatever their professional or academic credentials. Maybe they believe it's a bad idea because they've taken a sensible look at the evidence?

coconutella I hear what you are saying but you don't have to be a world-class economist to predict that voluntarily removing yourself from the world's largest trading block is likely to have a detrimental effect on your economy.

I agree, but this thread has been based on the premise that we should be terrified by these particular predictions, and that the NHS will be unaffordable as a result.

@okdok

Exactly.

@lurker

Call me whatever you want, this is just so off the point.

Maybe they believe it's a bad idea because they've taken a sensible look at the evidence?
Yep, that's it, and only stupid racist old white bigots would think otherwise - am I doing this right?

When you think about all the fuss that people used to make about a 1% increase in tax, or whatever. And all the discussions on here about tiny money issues, like how much to pay for someone's Christmas present. It is bizarrre that this massive attack on people's quality of living and future prospects is being allowed to go ahead. There should be riots in the streets. If this was France, there would be.

Frank - still waiting to see the well-reasoned arguments for leaving the EU. Based on what's best for the majority.

No. The study:

ourglobalfuture.com/reports/too-high-a-price-the-cost-of-brexit-what-the-public-thinks/

Coconut

Long term the nhs has a fundamental coming funding problem, whether we are in the eu or not. It will be interesting to see on which governments watch it comes to a head.

My worry is this Labour Party in government immediately after Brexit. I voted for Brexit but that outcome scares me

still waiting to see the well-reasoned arguments for leaving the EU.
No you aren't. You are waiting to hear them so you can dismiss them as "stupid, bigoted, ignorant" etc

Based on what's best for the majority.
How and when did we ever get to make political decisions on what is best for the majority? Who even defines that?