AIBU to ask why you for Brexit?

[BillySmut56]

I'm politically neautral on Brexit, it's a complicated issue, but I'm interested in the consequences that are coming out now. If you voted for Brexit, what were your reasons?

Yes. Regarding plans. We always seem to come back to some wacky poker game as an analogy.

Why not approach like starting a business. Where you carefully consider your plans and let the people who are backing you (that would be us) know about them?

Put plainly do you trust an engineer more? Or your sweaty uncle Al poking coins in a gambling machine?

Maddie now that is patronising !

Ghost I defy you to say Wortley without using a comedy voice

Had you realised that Remain would lose would anyone on here have made more effort to turn the result?

Ok, so I haven't RTFT but I have read the answers given by Julie008 and by Silverysurfer and I found them very helpful, so thank you.
I had a question for either of you - if there is a hard Brexit (for me meaning exit without trade or other deals in place with the EU), how do you think the first five years will look for the UK? Appreciating that it's anyone's guess but interested in your view.

Not sure about here but I know quite a few of people who would. In contrast, I guess it can be safely assumed that Brexit zealots were all out in force to deliver their lives' greatest achievement?

Looby it was never my intention to patronise people , I have never pretended to be educated on any subject , except possibly the ones I did at secondary school and for the job I currently do . I do know how to google and have a modicum of critical thinking and am a suspicious bugger to boot !
As far as being psychic , if I was , I would have bought a house 16 years ago before prices in my area rose 150% in just over a year

It's like you want to be patronised!

There are some aspects of Brexit I know a fair bit about and others where I know very little. I love it when posters break their answers down and make it clear who they are replying to. It helps to clarify questions and answers and makes it easier to understand. Perhaps you know more than me and don't need complex issues breaking down but don't have a go at people who are helping those of us who aren't experts.

Are you feeling patronised or threatened?

if there is a hard Brexit ... how do you think the first five years will look for the UK? In that scenario I think the next five years will be around the same as they are now. Average.

To add to that the following five years will be a lot better. But I dont accept the premise of your question, the UK and EU will get a trade deal.

One of my reasons to think that is because everyone was expecting armageddon the day after we voted to leave, it didn't happen. I dont see why a hard Brexit actually leaving the EU would be any different.

5 4 3 2

I don't think they were expecting Armageddon. They were trying, and failing, to scare people. Rather than presenting the facts or realistic predictions they thought they could scare people.

The remain campaign was not quite as bad as the pro Brexit campaign but it was close.

If they had said - yeah long term we won't grow as much and it will be tougher, the future won't be as positive but nothing will implode - that message might have got through.

So now we are being told, truthfully I think, we aren't growing as strongly as we should, economic prospects are a lot bleaker than they would be and people assume this is hyperbole as well. This time it isn't nonsense but now nobody trusts anybody.

We have lost trust in politicians which is why some posters are so insistent on referencing and quotes from reliable sources. We can't trust what we are told so we need to apply intellectual rigour ourselves. I am more likely to trust a well referenced post on MN than a political interview.

The remain campaign was not quite as bad as the pro Brexit campaign
Sorry but the remain campaign claiming the EU could descend into war wins the most outrageous claim of the campaign, a lot worse than was ever said by pro Brexit.

Quite right Julie. The oft mentioned bus slogan always meant to me that we won't have to earmark £350m a week any more for the EU why not spend it on what we want like the NHS. It never promised anything it just made a suggestion. As for the UKIP poster with the queue of immigrants - well I thought that was terrible and certainly didn't encourage me to vote leave if anything it put me right off NF.
Please remember NF and UKIP were not part of the official vote leave campaign.

I was pretty neutral up until a few days before the vote.

There were a few things that swung it for me:

• what we have at the moment isn’t working. The NHS is fucked, we don’t know immigration figures (we no longer specifically record who leaves the country - and when we do it’s sporadic and hasn’t been done for years)
• immigration will continue regardless (the govt has been saying for years that “immigration will be controlled”). I’m neither pro or anti immigration, but the fact is that the government has broken god knows how many DM pacifying promises over the years and immigration continues. So for me, rightly or wrongly, I believe it’s a non issue
• I don’t agree with some key rulings from Europe - e.g. prisoners having the right to vote. I don’t care if this contravenes their human rights, it’s small fry if you’ve fucked up badly enough to be sent down.
• fishing. This was a big thing for me. Millions of fish are killed and just dumped every year because of quotas. I don’t know what the answer to this is, but what we have at the moment isn’t working. Lives are not to be wasted, and this is a monumental, unnecessary waste.

That’s not to say that some things to come out of Europe aren’t good or that I don’t believe in them (e.g. the Diane Blood ruling) but on balance I chose leave.

I didn't hear the EU will descend into war claim during the campaign , who was claiming that Julie ?

I didn't pick up on any Armageddon/project fear stuff either , that's probably just me , the only 'project fear' bit I did note was about the Henry Vlll powers and how scary a prospect it would be to allow a government to change or drop laws without the normal recourse , that bit is unfortunately now in the process of happening .

A lot of rational , researched remain stuff was drowned out by the more , it has to be said nationalistic , flag waving , jingoistic sentiments of the leave campaign *.' Lets not do anything rash ' really isn't as sexy as 'take back control' mores the pity

*disclaimer , I know that not everyone who voted leave was swept along in the nationalism and jingoism .

the next five years will be around the same as they are now. Average

Average is working very well for some. It is hurting some terribly.

fullfact.org/europe/eu-pinching-our-fish/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIuKv4gNiQ2QIVrL3tCh0pWwbxEAAYASAAEgKVlPD_BwE

Ohfour fishy facts for you

Fishing quotas is a tricky one , I agree it seems utterly wasteful to throw back dead fish that have already been caught .

More fishy facts

blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/05/02/fishing-quotas-in-europe-who-gets-the-right-to-fish/

frumpety Cameron spoke in favour of the UK remaining in the EU, including a section on the UK’s role in bringing peace and security to Europe:

Can we be so sure that peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking?

You can read his speech here:

www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-on-the-uks-strength-and-security-in-the-eu-9-may-2016

It was Boris who, with his usual hyperbole, turned that into Remain threatening the outbreak of WW3:

I think it very, very curious that the Prime Minister is now calling this referendum and warning us that World War Three is about to break out unless we vote to remain.

War? Have the leavers here worked out how maintaining the good Friday agreement is compatible with the leaving of the customs union?

@ohfourfoxache prisoners voting is the ECHR not the EU.

The U.K. was heavily involved in setting up the ECHR after WW2.

The NHS is down to U.K. givers decisions not the EU.

Your not bothered about immigration.

So you left because of the fish.

So long and thanks for all the fish?

Givers = government

Your = you're or you are

It's too early in the morning to spell.

Julie8008, thanks for answering my question. It helps me to understand where you're coming from. I can see that in the UK there is a really firm belief on the Brexit side that trade interests from France and Germany will outweigh considerations of preserving the EU so there will be a trade deal.
I live in an EU country and read the German speaking press. I think the mood in Europe is quite different from the UK and I don't believe countries like Germany and France will trade off the ability to export to the UK against allowing the UK more favourable trade terms than EU members. Even if they did, the deal needs unanimity from all member states, which they struggled to get on a far less favourable deal with Canada.
You made quite a lot of points about loss of sovereignty through the EU and I tend to agree with that - the parliament is directly elected but the real power is in the Commission, which isn't directly elected - nor could it be; having a directly elected EU commissioner would pose a direct challenge to member state sovereignty. One can't make generalisations about the whole of Europe but I do think there is more tolerance in many countries here for that sort of supranational body, given the benefits it brings. I get that for many in the UK, the sovereignty is more important than the benefits but I personally believe that in the UK those benefits are sold short.
I agree that the predictions about disaster immediately after a Brexit vote haven't come true (apart from the big fall in the pound - I can speak to that personally...). I think that in March 2019, there will either be a two year fudge, and at the end of it an even more complicated mess, or a hard Brexit. I think the latter will be bad for the EU and a disaster for the UK - speaking as a non-EU national who finally got an EU passport, the benefits of the EU aren't really obvious to EU citizens until they lose them (to name just a few: non-EU queues at borders, no ability to work in the EU without a non-EU work permit, which is basically unobtainable in some countries, British financial services companies unable to properly transact in the EU).
One of the other problems I see is that the longer the uncertainty about "which Brexit?" continues, the more hard contingency planning is taking place. Or, in plain English - companies are having to set up staff and offices outside the EU in case there is no deal and they are moving staff already (though not in the droves people thought). The longer the uncertainty continues, the more those operations will build up.
I guess one of the other things which is driving the heat in the Brexit debate is the feeling that in March 2019, we'll all know who's "right" and who's "wrong". Not sure it will be that clear cut but my fear is that if the Tories continue in this disastrous, selfish way, it will be armageddon, and the Paul Dacres of the world will blame the EU instead of the übermuppets in Theresa May's cabinet.

As I said, I was pretty neutral!

In terms of the NHS etc: I truly believe that we’re fucked. Nothing in this country is working properly. The NHS, housing, benefits system, education, prisons - I can’t think of a single thing that runs smoothly. And I feel that being out of Europe may, in the long term, lead to more money being available for other things

I don’t believe that the Conservatives are doing a good job. And I don’t believe that Labour are a viable option. So in the absence of any form of hope I voted leave. Was it the right choice? I don’t know.

But actually, considering that I was genuinely neutral until about a week before the referendum, even thinking of the fish was enough to swing it for me

bista1 A few follow up points from your post.

I do not necessarily think we will get as good a trade deal (initially) as we have now with the EU, but there will be be some sort of deal. And we will build upon that with the rest of the world to eventually make it a better deal.

The EU difficulty of getting a trade deal with Canada is one of the reasons to leave the EU not something that would persuade us (leavers) to stay.

Your right to say sovereignty is more important than the benefits of the EU to many in the UK, but I am not sure the benefits are sold short. In fact the more we are told what the EU are doing for us the more we feel like we are in a gilded cage, being told how dare you try and escape, everything is done for you, its a good life in the cage. Why is it being done for us or to us, when we can do it ourselves, we are more than capable.

The big drop in the pound was triggered by the vote but it was probably overvalued and the drop is helping our exports. Also the surprise of a leave vote and the way 'Project Fear' had described the economy meant a lot of the fall was also based on fear rather than real opinion. Either way a bit of turbulence was expected by leavers and not a big worry for us.

I think that in March 2019, there will either be a two year fudge, and at the end of it an even more complicated mess, or a hard Brexit. I agree but wanted to point out your bias language. In March 2019 there will probably be a political compromise and at the end of it a complicated Brexit arrangement or else we will just make a clean break with the EU.

Disagree about the latter being a disaster. eg Yes we might lose the ability to work in the EU, but how many of us will that affect, a few of the wealthy liberal elite? Well maybe that will make them take notice of the majority who are left behind. Maybe we will lose financial services but they wont go to the EU they will go to the USA, so if the EU go down that route it will hurt all of Europe.

I agree its unhelpful for the uncertainty to continue any longer than possible. Which is why we need to leave the EU in a prompt and orderly fashion, on the timetable set out and remainers should stop trying to reverse it. aka lets just leave already.

But one last reason why many people want to leave the EU is the intangible 'future'. The current EU isn't what the 'people' signed up to and if we stay in now its inevitable that we will end up as a region of a superstate. And we do not want that at ANY cost. Politicians might say we wont allow that to happen but politicians have no credibility and they wont be around in 10 or 20 years as it happens bit by bit. If the EU had showed it was open to any meaningful reform when Cameron tried his best they maybe it could have been different. Unfortunately the EU was as stubborn as it always has been and will get its own way if we stayed in.

@Julie8008
sovereignty is more important than the benefits of the EU

I'm fascinated by this notion of sovereignty. People are prepared to put up with financial discomfort because they will be 'free'. In a world where binding international agreements are becoming necessary how long can we isolate ourselves? Post WW1 the USA tried to isolate itself from Europe - it failed.

Also, why is it the 'liberal elite' that cause the problems? Johnson, Gove, JRM all wealthy, public school educated, white men on the right, do you think they have your (or anyone's) best interests at heart.

Living and working in Europe is not the preserve of the wealthy elite. I live in the north and have a normal job. I have relatives who live in Europe, friends who have moved abroad, children of friends studying at European universities - it's common place.

Many people have expressed concern about those left behind and the NHS etc but these problems are caused by British politicians, decisions made in our sovereign parliament NOT by the EU.