To believe that Theresa May will not trigger A50 this year?

[NobodyputsBabyinaKorma]

Yes, I know there is an EU referendum topic hidden away on MN but this is a genuine AIBU.

Anyone else think she won't be stupid enough to trigger Article 50 in 2017?

Austria just had an election thankfully the far right party didn't win but received 45% of the votes (second election as first so close)

UKIP would never get many votes even if they are not in power if they have seats they have power

Somehow this has to be changed even Merkel is starting to realise she has to win over right wing voters (announcements that maybe she handled things wrongly and the niqab ban there will be more coming up to the election she absolutely has to stay in power)

and you have already been told you don't then add 100s of people to an area who will also need housing

Responsibility still lies with the British government.

If your a low sh killed worker and are in need of tax credits Ect your not self funding it's likey you will need support with housing in some

No matter why there is no housing there is none so now we established there is non
Tell me what is the sense in allowing people who are low skills who may require or have acesss to the non exsist housing

But with a stright face still trying to say if you have x amount of houses and adding more people to the current list won't effect anything

| GhostofFrankGrimes Fri 06-Jan-17 23:15:54
and you have already been told you don't then add 100s of people to an area who will also need housing

Responsibility still lies with the British government.

Brilliant now your done blaming the evil Tories dosent change the fact that in our area we have x amount of house and it's not tenable to just keep having more people here who are on low wages that require housing or housing benfits

WrongTrouser, with regard to What do you think are the reasons behind the rise of the far right? I think it is due to

1. Increased competition for jobs from the populations of poorer countries leading to a lack of scarcity of unskilled labour and jobs going abroad; and

1. Unskilled and low skilled job losses due to technological advances.

Both of these mean that there is a dissatisfied, low skilled white working class. This group might well be prone to blame others for taking their jobs (i.e. competing on a more level playing field where previously they were privileged by reason of being born into a first world country).

Whilst this reaction is not admirable by any means, as a country we do need to think carefully how we are going to deal with increasing globalisation and the effects of technological advances, neither of which are going to go away any time soon.

User, the tories have been slashing welfare, maybe you missed the last 6 years of austerity? Why do you think the Tories, the party of business will help low paid working class communities?

I have no bloody idea

Fair enough. I was just interested to hear if you had any theories.

It will happen this year, it kind of has to. If May stalls then the press and the Tory right will eat her, and the EU will become increasingly dissatisfied.

I just thought I'd add that housing lists are very unlikely to be effected by new EU immigrants who are far less likely to be in social housing, much more likely to be in the private rental sector, and of course they don't get preference.

All Immigrant and UK families are as likely to be in social housing as each other, but the % belies the nominal figure 18% of the 7/8 million or so immigrants is far lower than the 18% of British born.

it's not tenable to just keep having more people here who are on low wages that require housing or housing benifits

What do you anticipate is going to happen? That all the low paid jobs will suddenly be better paid? Do you believe that there is a British, jobless population willing and able to do this low paid work? Do you think the zero-hour contracts will disappear?

Stripey I think you are possibly right.

The price of work is set internationally to some extent, as we need to be able to sell our products and services competitively. This is true if we want to export clearly, but also domestically as our own producers are competing against foreign producers.

If we do not have low wage work, be it done by British nationals (which appears unlikely for the most part) or by immigrants, then the relevant business, together with associated higher paid jobs, will move abroad.

WrongTrouser I don't think that there is an easy answer unfortunately.

The only suggestion I have seen so far from the left is for a basic guaranteed income for all, but there are problems with that, most notably that it does not promote a sense of self respect or pride that can be gained from work.

The answer from the right is pretty obnoxious and does not fundamentally address the problem, which is international and technological in nature (other than maybe by war with poorer countries so they can't compete? Surely not?).

User I am in my early forties, and I was taught in portable classrooms in primary school in the early-mid eighties.

The failure of successive British governments to adequately resource schools and plan for fluctuations in local populations is nothing new, and well pre-dates FOM. It is usually worse when we have Tory governments, but TBH no U.K. party has covered themselves in glory on this.

The schools thing I think is a red herring, even in Boston which saw its immigrant population grow massively over the last 10 years, 94% of children get their first choice school.

I do feel that many of the issues raised by the leave campaign and blamed on immigration are not to do with immigration, they will be effected by it, but not to the extent that people feel.

There was the UCL study that said that even if EU immigration fell, the net benefit of the decline in demand on services woudln't be felt because the falling tax receipts would cause lower funding.

Whats the A50?

Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty sets out how an EU country might voluntarily leave the union. The wording is vague, almost as if the drafters thought it unlikely it would ever come into play. Now, it is the subject of a dispute

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/article-50-brexit-debate-britain-eu

Despite my best attempts, says professor of international law Ingrid Detter de Frankopan, everyone has been deaf to the painstakingly simple course for the United Kingdom to take: don’t trigger Article 50 at all.

Second rate lawyers are misleading everyone in the country by insisting that, in order to leave the European Union it is essential to “trigger” Article 50 in its entirety.

This line has been swallowed whole by the government, the media and commentators. It is, however, absolute nonsense. Under international law and under Article 50 (1) itself, only notice to leave is necessary.

Britain does not need to trigger article 50 to leave the EU — it can just leave

BadKnee your analysis above was well-expressed and I'm sure such beliefs were why some working-class communities voted Leave. However, the big question is how will leaving the EU help unskilled British workers?

While there may be some reduction in EU immigration, I can't see how unskilled workers will get any pay rise. The impact on schools is about funding -80% taken by immigrants - really??? This smacks of hyperbole. Outside remain-voting London, the vast majority get their preferred primary school.

The Brexit model proposed by key Leavers is ultra-globalisation - zero tariffs which would make Chinese imports even cheaper, decimating what is left of British manufacturing, leaving just more gig economy style jobs. Uber and deliveries may fill the gap for now, but not for long due to self-driving cars - bye bye long-distance lorry driving/taxis etc Farming would be devastated by cheap third-world imports.

In a global world, it will be very hard to be low-skilled and expect a rich-country lifestyle - even with lower immigration - and the UK has far too high a proportion of school leavers without good qualifications for them all to have a comfortable lifestyle. Yet it seems on mumsnet that the worst parental sin is to be 'pushy'. I am from a working-class background and am forever grateful that my mum was pushy.

On the other hand, high skilled jobs will also struggle as the UK loses the selling point of being the main English speaking country in the single market, and also the benefits of being able to access a well-educated global workforce. Whilst so much infrastructure is here, it's not going to go away quickly but tax revenues will be lower than otherwise and so the ability to fund all the welfare state services which insulate the poorest from the worst effects of the free market.

As for blaming the EU for the rise of the Far Right - I presume the EU is to blame for Trump too, or is this just a reflection of the reality which globalisation means for low-skilled workers in the West?

When the local schools are using pota cabins to teach our children because of the growth in population driven by immragtion dosent feel like it

I was educated in the mid 80s. I was taught in portacabins. The main building had classrooms with broken windows patched up with plastic wrapping and buckets scattered around to catch the rain from the leaking roof.

This is a GOVERNMENT problem caused by starvation of funds. Not an EU problem.

BadKnee's post on p2 was indeed true: I can remember the glee with which a journalist encouraged her readers to sack their nannies and get a Romanian au pair instead. The thing is, that type of person is always going to exploit situations to their own advantage. In or out of the EU, it doesn't change.

I find it laughable when posters drone on about the Elite while conveniently ignoring the wealthy backgrounds of the politicians they are trusting with our future.

These wealthy politicians couldn't give a damn about the poor. They are hell-bent on dismantling what remaining workers and human rights are left so they can further drive down wages and costs.

The problem the leave vote have is that they have blamed the EU and immigration for all of public service failings, and the failure of the government to intervene in labour markets, or to support struggling industries.

In essence those people who want more free market policies, more globalisation, less regulation of the work place and privatisation of public services have appealed to the dissatisfied by promising them that coming out of the EU will solve the problem. Those who are dissatisfied want better public services free at point of use, protectionist policies to support UK industry, a more regulated labour market and better conditions at work.

One side will get what they want, the one that is in power.

Agree with the posts just above. Even as a Remain voter, I see the validity of BadKnee's post about why the poor are alienated from the idea of being in the EU and the consequences of freedom of movement and cheap labour. But I don't see the Tory government, who are ideologically committed to austerity, changing that. How will anything change for the benefit of the poor outside the EU? They'll still have no choice beyond shitty exploitative contracts, but we'll have lost all the benefits of EU membership too. Lose lose.

No they may not benefit

But they were not anyway and that's the issue. why didn't politicians see that given the chance for a real change in policies people would take it even if it was a gamble as they have nothing to lose

On the concequences of freedom of movement and cheap labour, again I think this has been over played.

All the research points to the fact that the impact is very minimal on wages. A 10% percentage point increase in the number of immigrants working in a low paid industry lowers wages by 1.8%. So in London an increase from 22% of workers in the care industry to 32% of workers being immigrants would lower wages.

If we say that 30% of workers in a low paid industry are likely to be imigrants then you can work out that workers are paid about £11.25 a week less than they would be without immigration.

Of course all of this depends on the region, in areas of low immigration, immigration doesn't drive down wages.

Its also interesting that many areas of low migration, and low wages blame immigration for this. However its far more likely to be that these areas have higher than average unemployment, which is the factor that drives down wages.

I am not so sure

During the building of the Olympic venue there were many many complaints (phone inns, debates online) about the numbers of oversea workers (I think I read it was 50% but might be wrong) and how workers had their wages pushed down becuase the employers obviously wanted to pay as little as possible to gain more money for themselves

The claim was there wasn't anywhere near enough workers (I'm sure extra numbers would have been needed for such a huge project) while others were saying yes there is but you have to pay us a fair wage and they lost out

I am sure their is truth in both sides when you have policies that allow big business to pay pittance wages and keep wages low it will be used.

And when telling people that the EU has been good to them they just haven't experienced it

Not that the Tory party will make their positions better but this wasn't a general election

The EU will change it absolutely has to as the biggest issue is not us leaving it's the rise in the right wing in Central Europe even if they are not in power they are gaining power and that leads to gaining influence

I feel disappointed that the EU didn't protect UK workers more and just dismissed so many people's concerns becuase it worked well on the surface

Anecdata alert!

It's not just the lowest wages that are depressed by an economic migrant workforce - there is also an ongoing battle within skilled workforces.

This is affecting many of my friends & former colleagues at the moment - skilled (hands on) engineers & technicians who are competing for jobs with migrants who are more than willing to work below the national 'agreed wage'.