It pains me to say so but I'm starting to think that we might actually make a success of Brexit

[WordYaGoBernadette]

AIBU?

Yes I know there is a topic for this but it's hidden away and mainly populated by Remain supporters and I'm interested in the views of everyone!

I still want to remain but, as the Labour Party has been woeful since the result thus providing no opposition, I'm starting to think it's inevitable.

So ... we're a very rich country. BMW and Audi (for example) aren't going to stand for Merkel and her chums slapping prohibitive tariffs on exporting their cars to GB. Likewise other European exporters.

So who thinks it's going to happen and GB will flourish outside the EU?

Ofc we will flourish, in or out once the short term uncertainty is resolved.

I think in a few years time nothing much will have changed from before only we won't be able to blame the EU for our problems. We will be fine out and would have been fine in.

It'll be interesting to see how it pans out though for the UK and the EU.

Brexit hasn't actually happened yet you know.

Once they trigger art 50, we'll get a tiny taste of what tbwill be like. And it's not going to be pretty.

BMW and Audi (for example) aren't going to stand for Merkel and her chums slapping prohibitive tariffs on exporting their cars to GB.

No they'll just up sticks and move to an EU country to manufacture those cars. Brexit is likely to make materials and components more expensive to import. Goodbye Cowley plant and all associated logistic companies.

www.carkeys.co.uk/news/bmw-bosses-warn-of-brexit-risk-to-car-industry

With a government in chaos, the in-fighting just beginning, manufacturers like Nissan demanding upfront compensation reassurances...... no, I don't think it will be a success. I am appalled by some of the rhetoric before Article 50 is even signed, entertained by the task facing the Three Dilettantes who wooed voters with two mutually exclusive claims on migration and free trade and saddened by how we are viewed by many around the world.

Brexit hasn't actually happened yet you know

No need to be so patronising. This is AIBU not Question Time.

Re: BMW and Audi - what I meant is that GB is a huge importer of German cars and the German manufacturers aren't going to stand by and let EU tariffs jeopardise that.

• were a very rich country

Yes we are. But the EU as a group is richer and much much larger. They respresent 48% of our exports. We represent 7% of theirs.

• BMW and Mercedes won't tolerate Merkel slapping prohibitive tariffs on their exports to the U.K.

Likely they won't have to. We need then Eu more than they need us. Tariffs are not always symmetrical. So the EU could off low or no tarried on EU exports to the U.K. But large ones on UK exports to Europe. Goods are not really the worry: the majority of U.K. Trade with the eu is services and there's no baseline trade deal for that. Ireland is a better bet for defending us, Ireland export much more to the Uk than the rest of the eu combined. But Ireland also see the chance to take much of the inward investment the U.K. Attracts as an English speaking member of the eu. Lots of jobs in media, financial services that really drive our economy.

Meantime, Nissan and jaguar land rover have announced all Uk investment decisions are suspended until they know whether we will retain access to the single market. So that's the slow drip of recession started, sadly. Hard too see how or why they'd invest more if we leave the SM. Liam Foxes plan we'll be on WTO terms would mean 10% tariffs on all their sales to the Eu, which is why they are here.

I agree the EU needs reform. There will be many many twists and turns before any deal is done. Hard Brexit (out of the single market) appears to be in the ascendancy now, but that's because the uk has not yet faced up to how economically brutal it would be. Would make austerity following the credit crunch seem like a spring rain shower. Soft Brexit will get back on the table.

The unsquarable circle is better control of immigration va full single market access. But with French presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy saying freedom
Of movement needs to be reformed, Hungary holding a referendum
On eu refugee policy, too many things are shifting and will
Shift yet.

Matthew Paris wrote well about some of this in The Times yesterday.

Hard Brexit would be calamitous. Soft Brexit, if circumstances allow, could pave the way for the eu to renew for the 21sr century. I wish I could be optimistic about that, but many many things have to happen for it to come about.

It is far, far too early to tell.

Yes, project great will continue to exist and continue to tell us that we're all doomed and it won't be pretty.

But now that first volatility has subsided, it's perfectly clear that it's in everyone's interests to make this work. And international business isn't going to shun such a rich country as UK.

What is more likely is that, post-Merkel, Germany will end up being sick of paying for the rest of the EU without another reliable large contributor. The changes that will force on EU will be transformative, to the extent that it may no longer exist.

It's a bit like the League of Nations becoming the UN (and now needing to become something else but no-one ready to reform far enough or capable of creating anew).

I know what you mean OP.

like you I voted Remain and was gutted when I heard the news.

But there are a lot of very brilliant minds working it out right now and I believe the result won't be as calamitous as the fear campaign projected.

And trust me, I was and still am a staunch remainer.

X posted with trojan who puts it a lot more succinctly

"Soft Brexit, if circumstances allow, could pave the way for the eu to renew for the 21sr century. I wish I could be optimistic about that, but many many things have to happen for it to come about."

That's what the Cameron 'deal' should have delivered. The EU wasn't up for it. They read the strength of UK populace views completely wrongly. There was a chance then. Doubt it now.

Brexit causing demise of EU is a more likely prospect now.

The industrial companies are of course saying they'll pull out etc - there is a degree of realpolitik going on, as they smell the ability to drag concessions out of the UK government by threatening to leave. Supply chains these days are global anyway - if VW etc can cope with suppliers and manufacturing in Tunisia etc they can cope with it in the UK too.

I am interested to see how Deutsche Bank plays out - if the Germans need to bail out DB when they refused to help the Italians etc then Brexit will be the least of the EU's problems.

The evidence is certainly stacking up OP, I voted Leave after much consideration as I think we need sovereignty over our laws. I actually started to believe Project Fear but felt it was a price worth paying. I'm saddened that it was lies and bullying but saddened that instead the economy is holding strong (and yes I know we haven't left yet but Project Fear said immediate and drastic consequences which have patently not materialised). Also can I wish you luck OP as other even vaguely optimistic Brexit posts have recieved vitriol and abuse.

"I am interested to see how Deutsche Bank plays out - if the Germans need to bail out DB when they refused to help the Italians etc then Brexit will be the least of the EU's problems."
This.

As Lyra says, good luck with this thread OP. As soon as the Remainers which dominate the referendum boards find this, any posters optimistic about Brexit will be put in their places very firmly!

Thanks for all replies.

I can't argue economic/political points. Not because I'm uneducated or Ill-informed - it's just not my area so if someone puts forward an argument and someone else counters it I have no idea who's right

I want to remain in a reformed EU and wish Junckers hadn't acted like such a prick after the result and Merkel had sat down and thought she might possibly be doing something wrong and ought to have a bit of a re-think!

How will we judge success?

Amidst all the talk of immigration, what about emigration? My 15 year old son made his MFL choices when he was 11 because of a particular scientific opportunity in Europe. Will our young people have the free choice to work across the continent of the languages they study in school??

I actually started to believe Project Fear but felt it was a price worth paying. I'm saddened that it was lies and bullying but saddened that instead the economy is holding strong (and yes I know we haven't left yet but Project Fear said immediate and drastic consequences which have patently not materialised).

That was on the basis Cameron said he would trigger article 50 the day after the referendum. He didn't.

Sterling has collapsed against the euro and dollar, at the moment this is helping tourism. Many importers will also have hedged their currency exposures for the next few months limiting the impact of the currency decline on prices in the shops. This won't last much longer. Lack of investment and increased prices will seriously damage our economy.

Noting the reasoned discussion on this aibu thread from people on both sides, as opposed to the referendum board where the eu represents perfection and all leavers are ignorant racists...

It is indeed very difficult. As viking has said, if the eu was prepared for listening and gradual change, even cameron could have negotiated something. Instead, it was take it or leave it, and to their surprise half those that cared said 'leave it'.

No-one knows - let us hope it can be worked out. Economics is totally under our control so why not?

Have you all noticed the plummeting interest rates on your ISAs and savings accounts? Is the same happening to your pensions ?

I really hope it does work. But to say it is already 'stacking up ' is premature.

Well, fairly reasoned...

If ickle preshus has the skills, he will be able to work anywhere . we werent trapped in the uk before the eu. And the pound is still much higher against the euro than a few years back.

Blu - I'm sympathetic to your son's predicament but it'll hold no sway with the voters of, say, Boston in Licolnshire whose lives have been negatively impacted upon by EU immigration.

And one thing I'd put money on; whether we get a soft or hard Brexit - or no Brexit at all - the government won't do anything to improve the situation for those voters.

Economics is totally under our control so why not?

You are joking, aren't you?

Oh God - I hope the grammar pedants don't see my posts today!

there are a lot of very brilliant minds working it out right now

There really, really aren't.

Remain or leave, for me it's about so much more than economics,

I'm on the continent at the moment and I feel that things will be very different for my kids once we've left. It just seems like an utterly pointless thing to do and a massively retrograde step for tolerance and integration.

The rise of the far right across Europe is a deeply worrying post Brexit occurrence - as is what's happening across the pond.

Whoever it was above who said "none of what project fear predicted has happened" - its way too early to tell. I don't feel the Remain campaign had the monopoly on "fear" - that was Farage (remember him?).