It pains me to say so but I'm starting to think that we might actually make a success of Brexit

[WordYaGoBernadette]

AIBU?

Yes I know there is a topic for this but it's hidden away and mainly populated by Remain supporters and I'm interested in the views of everyone!

I still want to remain but, as the Labour Party has been woeful since the result thus providing no opposition, I'm starting to think it's inevitable.

So ... we're a very rich country. BMW and Audi (for example) aren't going to stand for Merkel and her chums slapping prohibitive tariffs on exporting their cars to GB. Likewise other European exporters.

So who thinks it's going to happen and GB will flourish outside the EU?

Well that's all ok then - just wanted to inject some balance into the argument 😉

Very good!

You'd honestly have to pretty dim to think anything good is happening right now. Of course your own tiny life in your own four tiny walls hasn't changed. You might have noticed more changes if you worked in EU-funded research and your coffers are empty, or you were an EU national uncertain as to how long you'll be allowed to remain, or your work is based on the financial passporting, but screw all that eh, so long as a few people haven't noticed a difference everything must be OK.

The Far Right is on the move because the Far Left are pushing countries peoples into a political union they do not want. The far left are putting them at risk and dont seem to listen to what people - their peoples actually want.

I get that people who don't feel listened to can be exploited by the far right but I'm not aware of any far left governments within the EU or ar left policies from the EU itself.

'I want to remain in a reformed EU and wish Junckers hadn't acted like such a prick after the result and Merkel had sat down and thought she might possibly be doing something wrong and ought to have a bit of a re-think!'

this could still happen. The typical pattern is the EU has a hardline reaction first then hashes out a compromise later. Won't come from Juncker, he is a true believer Europesn federalist. Could come from Merkel, she is facing reelection next year, under lots of pressure at home re anti immigrant feeling and the rise of the hard right there.

Nobody can answer this question because we have not left yet.

But there is no reason whatsoever why the end result (in this case of importing the academics that the universities want) will be different.

There is plenty of reason to think that the end result will be different.

Theresa May spent her entire time as Home Secretary making it harder and more expensive for non-EU nationals to come to the UK. It is now virtually unaffordable to hire non-EU nationals as academics, as the visa costs, healthcare costs etc are so high.

She has signalled that she wants to do the same to EU nationals coming to UK universities. She views universities as a big part of the immigration problem and sees them as easy targets to get immigration numbers down. Bankers will apparently get all the visas and work permits they want. Oxbridge may well too - they have unofficial promises. Other universities are screwed big time, what with the loss of research funds as well.

What things have made you think it will be a success?

I really want to know about the clandestine brilliant minds...........

I'm also wondering where all those "very brilliant minds" were during the recession.

Me too - beyond excited at the thought of the UK's finest minds scurrying away sorting this all out for us

Were the brilliant minds recruited from among the leavers on mumsnet?

But seriously, who are they, what were they doing before, how much are they paid? You can't just take back control and give it to a secret bunch of shady brilliant minds. Or maybe you can, I dunno.

I really want to know about all these Far Left European governments cos I'm buggered if I can think of any!

And why didn't they do their brillIiant mind stuff before the referendum, so that they could emerge with a plan by the Friday teatime........

Oh, god, it's Stephen Fry, isn' it?

If you ask the average Brit to mane a brilliant mind, that's who they would say............

I really want to know about the clandestine brilliant minds...........

Me too. Mind you anyone is brilliant compared to

these three.

It's Stephen Fry, Brian Cox and Stephen Hawkins.........

Come on, Amber, who is it really?

I think the issue will be that Brexit will not bring what people who voted for it wanted. They wanted less people from overseas (not even EU) in the UK. That will not happened unless they also understand that they will not be able to live or work in an eu country.

My DPiLS who live part of the year in Spain voted for Brexit. They think there are too many immigrants in the UK but they dont see themselves as immigrants (who dont work and so contribute little to the economy) in Spain.

This ignorance and mismatch of expectation with reality may lead to worse racial tension.

I am deeply frustrated that many Brexiteers don't seems to understand how much all this is going to cost. It's honestly going to be billions over the next 10 years. The cost of hiring enough people to work out how to do all this is enormous.

As usual, The only people to make money out of all this is the lawyers (and I speak as one!)

On the 'brilliant minds front' I have some insight on this as I work in policy for a FTSE50 company. So i respond to policy developments on behalf of the business and advise the business on behalf of policy developments. My area is very shaped by Euroepan regulation so I have lots of interaction with e European Commission and uk Govt. I also have seen the workings of the EU up close, know it needs fundamental change and think the idea of a federal Europe has always been a district ivf pipe dream which is at the root of the EU's current problems.

It is not true that the bred it vote has triggered a wave of far right support across Europe. All of that has been brewing for years and the Brussels elite has either ignored it, or believed the answer to be 'more Europe' (I've further integration) they are wrong. I voted remain but hoped a narrow win to stay would mean we could advocate for change inside the eu. Now we must do it from outside. The message is more powerful, but the uk's own position is weaker.

Across uk government there is work being carried out to understand the impacts on various bits of uk business / economy and how to manage those. It is very complex. This should inform the trod of bred it we go for, although it is safe to say almost all business would rather we stayed in the single market.

So lots of the U.K. National civil service is working on understanding all the very very complex detail. Then specialist teams are working up possible negotiating positions. The brilliant minds already know and it will become increasingly clearer to the public just how economically calamitous a hard brexit would be.

I intensely dislike the Liam fox / David Davis / Bojo (which auto correct thinks is Bono! Hilarious) triumvirate. But don't think it's crazy to let them try, for the on a give themselves enough rope to hang themselves approach. I also think if you were negotiating for a soft brexit / special deal which include access to the single market and controls on immigration you'd be crazy to talk publicly about it now. Rapid die hard brexit ears would have too long to try and kill it. No, better let reality sink in now then ride to the rescue later on.

OP you said you didn't understand economics or politics: time to educate yourself then. This is the most significant political moment of our lifetimes. Start reading, do an a level in economics (honestly it's all you need for the basic principles, after that is just opinion).

I cannot stand the 'they will sort it out' view. We are not children. The government are not our parents. We voted for this. We chose our government. We the people will decide what happens. So if you don't like what you see, educate yourself and get involved.

The brilliant minds already know and it will become increasingly clearer to the public just how economically calamitous a hard brexit would be.

I really hope this is true.

I'm not surprised that nearly all of the Civil Service is producing policy papers and analyses, left right and centre acros the government departments at the moment. And yes I am sure that some of them are brilliant minds.

But what would they be doing without Brexit? Something more constructive with their time, no doubt. And where's the funding coming from for all these policy studies?

Feesh, they're salaried civil servants, so it's day to day running costs.

100% true though that all sorts of other stuff that was priority has been parked / frozen / set aside / junked.

Also all previous certainties are gone. Everything can / might change. Which is resulting in a bit of 'wait and see' paralysis but also there opportunity in that.

British politics runs in about 35 year cycle. So since the Second World War there been two: 1945 - 1979, the building of the welfare state, workers rights, full employment. But also a decade of post war austerity (45-55) and then terrible high inflation, overly powerful unions and inefficiency (70s).

That ended with the arrival of Thatcher. So second has been 1979 - 2016. Privatisation, priority of low inflation, rolling back of the state. Privatisation, end of Govt responsibility for full employment.

To period is ending. It will be at least five years,maybe ten before we know what the new paradigm is. But expect things we have previously taken for granted to go (low inflation? Fundamental change to health care or social welfare?) and things that until recently were inconceivable to become the norm: basic income? Voucher system for (limited) health and education? Decline of financial service I the uk?

I'm guessing. But all the cards are in the air now. Far too early to judge where they might land.