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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To wonder if scots will be voting to stay in the EU?

255 replies

Boomingmarvellous · 23/02/2016 13:36

Because if they do and the rest of the U.K. vote leave, it will trigger another independent Scotland referendum

Just curious.

OP posts:
OOAOML · 26/02/2016 10:32

Before the GE, Sturgeon said several times that the election was 'not about independence'. I know people who voted No who voted SNP in the GE. I voted SNP in 2011 and No in 2014. People vote for all kinds of reasons. After the fact, assumptions are made about why they did and what kind of mandate it is.

I'll be voting to stay in the EU. I'm seriously unimpressed by the renegotiation, I'd prefer the debate to be about how Europe is governed (Parliament/Council/Commission) etc as it isn't made clear enough to people. I really don't care about the child benefit issues that Dave thinks people are obsessed about. The talk about closing borders and restricting immigration I think are a total red herring, as most of the Outers seem to be assuring everyone we'll be in the EEA - as far as I'm aware countries like Norway and Switzerland are signed up to lots of EU principles, including freedom of movement.

I'd like to see more interest in what our MEPs do. When we had the Euro elections every party that contacted me sent me a leaflet that was basically about the Scottish referendum, nobody was talking about what their aims were for Europe. I don't know what the leaflets were like in the rest of the UK, but certainly from TV coverage etc I don't remember the kind of policy examination you'd expect from a GE.

I think there should be a longer period before the vote - I initially thought September, but I suppose Dave doesn't want to risk holding the vote after another summer of Operation Stack. But it looks like being a total shambles of 4 months, especially after people have seen what the impact of the Scottish referendum was on parties and therefore nobody wants to be working with anyone else. Most people I see commenting on it had already made up their mind long ago.

PaulAnkaTheDog · 26/02/2016 10:34

In any case they've made themselves look like dicks even more with this. A lot of the very vocal YES voters I know are unimpressed with them and the referendum nonsense, as it's doing them more harm than good because it makes them look like liars.

PaulAnkaTheDog · 26/02/2016 10:36

Before the GE, Sturgeon said several times that the election was 'not about independence'. I know people who voted No who voted SNP in the GE. I voted SNP in 2011 and No in 2014. People vote for all kinds of reasons. After the fact, assumptions are made about why they did and what kind of mandate it is.

Well put.

OneMagnumisneverenough · 26/02/2016 10:37

I wouldn't piss on nicola sturgeon if she was on fire

Peggy I just stopped myself typing that but I would also be crossing my legs if I even got a whiff of smoke in her general vicinity.

PaulAnkaTheDog · 26/02/2016 10:41

Grin Peggy OneMagnum

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 26/02/2016 10:47

People should be able to vote for them on their other policies

Why? People choose to vote for a political party based on their policies. No party will align exactly with a particular voter so the voter has to choose best fit. Voters will have their own red line policies which they absolutely cannot support. If the SNP put an Indyref in the manifesto and if people vote for them, then they have a mandate. IndyRef wasn't in the GE manifesto, and there has been no referendum. Seems fair? It's not like the SNP are the only political party in Scotland, there are several, about half of which don't support independence. It's not like people are forced to vote for SNP -> independence.

as they assured us it was once in a generation. I fail to see what is so difficult to understand about that. Right now independence shouldn't even be getting discussed by them, let alone another referendum.

If people are aggravated by the fact that an Indyref may be in the manifesto then they show this by not voting for them. Once the SNP lose support the Indyref issue goes away.

PaulAnkaTheDog · 26/02/2016 10:51

And if you agree with every other one of their policies? If someone is in that situation the should be able to vote for them, safe in the knowledge that they aren't supporting another referendum because the snp themselves said there wouldn't be. Surely that isn't difficult to grasp?

peggyundercrackers · 26/02/2016 10:54

OOAOML - , Sturgeon said several times that the election was 'not about independence

MPs are known for telling the truth as well...Hmm All SNP care about is independence - as someone else said independence is their first priority, above running the country and making sure they do a good job.

I see SNP in the same way as I see the tories in that they both have a majority and can push through laws which no one else agrees with purely because of a numbers game. I also don't like the way that SNP MPs toe the party line so much, none of them seem to have their own opinion, they all stick together, all vote together in the same way, it's not healthy.

OOAOML · 26/02/2016 10:56

One benefit of the increased political awareness might be more people paying attention to what is in manifestos - there's a lot more discussion than I remember in the past. And I freely admit that in 2011 I hadn't considered manifestos - I remember being hacked off with a range of parties, walking into the polling station and thinking 'f*ck it'. I'm pretty disappointed now with the lack of engagement I had then, I have to say.

I think ItsAll makes a good point - people will have their own red lines, people will have their own top priorities. Some will have a strong party loyalty, some will have one single issue, some will be picking the best fit of policies, some will be voting because they like/don't like their current MSP. A bit like the EU debate - whatever Dave, Boris etc spout, a lot of people will already have decided what the key issue is for them. A lot of people might not vote - I'll be interested to see what the turnout it.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 26/02/2016 11:01

And if you agree with every other one of their policies?

If an IndyRef is in their manifesto, and you cannot support independence then you would be foolish to vote for them.

If someone is in that situation the should be able to vote for them, safe in the knowledge that they aren't supporting another referendum because the snp themselves said there wouldn't be. Surely that isn't difficult to grasp?

Actually it is. Parties and politicians change their position on things all of the time. If people approve of the policy change they will gain votes, if they don't, they will lose them. It is a voters responsibility to be aware of what they are voting for. It is ridiculous to assume that the SNP will never ever push for independence again, if they have the voter support.

The SNP thought it would be a once in a generation thing because they, and everyone else, assumed that a No vote would mean the complete collapse of the Yes movement and the SNP. What actually happened is that the support for the SNP and for independence has gone up, which no one expected. Do you seriously expect them not to capitalise on that?

We are very lucky to live in a democracy where voters have a real choice. We are even more lucky to live in Scotland where we have a form of PR. If the voting population shares your anger, expect an SNP wipeout in the elections.

OneMagnumisneverenough · 26/02/2016 11:01

it's not healthy.

Exactly!

Better laws, policies and actions are taken when there has been a rigorous debate in order to ensure that they are taking into account things that one group of people may not have thought of.

In the UK government this is achieved by ensuring that there is cross party representation on these things and that in general a member of the opposition chairs such debates. There is nothing like this built into the Scottish Parliament so in that case in it simple that "might is right" The controlling body makes all the decisions safe from any real debate or input from anyone else. It's not healthy, it's not right and it isn't democracy in action.

OOAOML · 26/02/2016 11:01

I'll be interested to see the impact on the Tories - at the moment they're still sticking to the line that they'll all come back together again after the vote, but I can see signs of tensions and I think it might get heated. I'm in my 40s and the Tories have been arguing over Europe for pretty much as long as I can remember. I think it could get pretty nasty.

OneMagnumisneverenough · 26/02/2016 11:06

The SNP also based their campaign on massive economic lies, as it turns out the situation is even worse than even their opponents predicted.

I have to give them credit in a way for their sheer bloody mindedness and their absolutely sticking to the party line as that is what won them the support. But for me, I actually like that parties have dissent and debate and disagreements as that shows that people are allowed to have their own views.

peggyundercrackers · 26/02/2016 11:09

Yes I think the tories are making a bit of a mess of things just now, I believe Cameron will fall on his own sword soon, they can't sustain the current onslaught.

juneau · 26/02/2016 11:10

The economic argument for Scottish independence has been shown, since the Scottish referendum, to be a bunch of lies. Scotland can't afford to be independent based on their North Sea oil and gas revenues. It was a nice idea, but the plunging price of oil in the past 18 months has shown what a lucky escape Scotland had back in Sept 2014.

Lumping all Scots together and assuming they vote as a block is a mistake too. 46% of people who live in Scotland voted for independence and 54% voted to stay. Not all Scots are SNP voters and as a Scottish friend pointed out to me last weekend, 11% of people who live in Scotland are, in fact, English!

blaeberry · 26/02/2016 11:11

I think support for the SNP has gone up because Labour and Lib Dems still aren't providing a credible alternative. Labour lost a lot of support under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, the Lib Dems collapsed after the coalition, and that vote had to go somewhere. Scots still aren't generally prepared to go Tory so that leaves the SNP. What has happened to Scottish Labour? where are they?

blaeberry · 26/02/2016 11:13

junea actually it was more like 40% of people who live in Scotland voted for independence (not everyone voted).

MitzyLeFrouf · 26/02/2016 11:13

Scottish Labour have fucked up and that's a real shame. I'm not into the idea of an SNP landslide. It isn't great for any country to have one party be so dominant.

juneau · 26/02/2016 11:20

Sorry - yes 46% of those who voted! Crucial difference.

OOAOML · 26/02/2016 11:21

I think there's a limit to how far you can segment people and assume how they will vote - I know quite a few English people who voted Yes and a lot of Scottish people who voted No. There was another thread on MN with people who'd moved to the UK from other EU countries who would vote to leave. I see a lot of assumptions about how people will vote based on age etc, but when you start looking at the sample sizes in polls they are sometimes so small it seems ridiculous to take them as an indication of how large numbers will vote.

OOAOML · 26/02/2016 11:25

I think part of the problem with people talking about one party dominance is that Holyrood was planned to be a single chamber coalition government. Now we know that majority government is possible with our voting system, and is likely to happen again, and there has undoubtedly been a change in the responsibilities of the Scottish Government since 1999, we should be looking again at whether there should be procedural changes, not necessarily a second chamber, but that could be an option, changes to committee structure, whatever. Not to stop one party getting control of the seats, and not to stop an elected majority government implementing their policies - but to reflect that the role of the Scottish Government is evolving and that the structure needs to evolve too.

OneMagnumisneverenough · 26/02/2016 11:32

Part of the problem is that people think the SNP is a socialist party. they are not never have been but the myth continues. There is phrase which NS uses that includes the word Socialist but doesn't mean that and for the life of me I can't remember what it is. Totally misleading.

I'm glad to see Kezia in charge but tbh it wasn't really her time and I think there is too big a hill to climb.

The SNP are very polished and determined and have steam rollered over everyone else. Their lies get covered up and I am really not sure what power they have over the press but they simply don't get the kicking they should for some of the things that have come out. The corruption the lies etc all seems to disappear in a way that it doesn't for other parties. I acknowledge that there are issues in all parties but when it's the SNP it all seems to just disappear.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 26/02/2016 11:36

Now we know that majority government is possible with our voting system, and is likely to happen again, and there has undoubtedly been a change in the responsibilities of the Scottish Government since 1999, we should be looking again at whether there should be procedural changes, not necessarily a second chamber, but that could be an option, changes to committee structure, whatever. Not to stop one party getting control of the seats, and not to stop an elected majority government implementing their policies - but to reflect that the role of the Scottish Government is evolving and that the structure needs to evolve too.

I wholeheartedly agree with this^ The Westminster government also needs some serious reform. I'm not sure how it will ever happen though as the current structures obviously suit the parties in power, so I cynically imagine they'd be unlikely to support change...

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 26/02/2016 11:39

Part of the problem is that people think the SNP is a socialist party.

It's interesting the way this has happened. In the grand scheme of things they are pretty much dead centre. But they are so far left of the Tories/Labour/Lib Dems that people always think/work of them as being left.

To wonder if scots will be voting to stay in the EU?
Sallyingforth · 26/02/2016 11:59

Whose graphic is that, and how did they arrive at the left/right placings?