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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

A school trip is over subscribed, a draw will take place, there's a possibility that only one twin will be picked.

204 replies

MyballsareSandy · 13/07/2015 19:39

AIBU to think that a set of twins should be counted as one in this situation? Or is that completely unfair on the rest of the class? I really can't make my mind up.

I don't want to say too much but it's a massive trip, we aren't talking about a day out. Ten days away abroad, long flight.

It hasn't happened yet so I'm possibly worrying about nothing, but if one is left out they'll be so upset. Year 9.

OP posts:
Yarp · 13/07/2015 21:21

I am a bit surprised that up until 13 they've not faced this before

Dancingqueen17 · 13/07/2015 21:22

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

LaLyra · 13/07/2015 21:26

Speak to them beforehand and decide on what you want to do. When my twins were 8 they faced this and decided they were either both going or not going. One got picked, one didn't and they decided not to go. This year (12) the same thing happened and they decided on luck of the draw. They are both going. My nieces are the same again and they decided on either both going or neither going and as only one was picked they are not going. Let them decide beforehand so that they know they're either both going or not or that they're abiding by the draw.

OneMillionScovilles · 13/07/2015 21:29

Stealth, approx 15/16 - the only way they wouldn't go is if they both fell in the 1/4 not selected, so 1 - (1/4 x 1/4). Again ignoring num/denom reductions.

Stealthpolarbear · 13/07/2015 21:32

Umm yes well done you passed my test Blush

lunar1 · 13/07/2015 21:37

Why on earth is it not the same as siblings?

Enkopkaffetak · 13/07/2015 21:45

Ok what about behaviour, or kids that have been on other big trips, should that be taken into account rather than just picking out of a hat?

In Ds school the rule is if you were not picked for 1 trip then the next trip you apply for you get priority over before others.

I think that is rather fair.

Lweji · 13/07/2015 22:02

Hmmm...

Chances of both going: 9/16 = 3/4 x 3/4 = 0.5625
Of neither going: 1/16 = 1/4 x 1/4 = 0.0625
Of only one going: 6/16 = 2 x 1/4 x 3/4 = 3/8 = 0.375

If both were drawn as a single ticket, there would actually be 29 tickets for effectively 39 places, so:
Chances of both going: 29/39 = 0.7435
Of neither going: 10/39 = 0.2564
(note that if their ticket didn't come out, there would be effectively one extra seat and as their ticket was for two seats, they would have to be out of the draw, so the chances for the other students would be slightly different)

So, the chances for them would be better as a single ticket, but not fair on the other students who don't have twins.

Lweji · 13/07/2015 22:16

If the rule is draw one and both go
then I'd say they have a chance of 29 seats for 40 tickets? (the last seat couldn't be for either as if one drew it, then the other couldn't go)
29/40 = 0.725

Mumoftwoyoungkids · 13/07/2015 22:17

Stealth I've been doing it too!

I think that as long as they are on one piece of paper then it doesn't actually effect anyone else's chances.

Two separate pieces of paper:-

P(both) = 3/4 * 3/4 = 9/16
p(twin 1 but not twin 2) = 3/4 * 1/4 = 3/16
P(twin 2 but not 1) = 3/16
P(neither twin) = 1/16

So expected no of places taken by the twins is

9/16 2 + 3/16 1 + 3/16 * 1 = 24 / 16 = 1.5.

If they are on 1 piece of paper that is either drawn of not then

P (both go) = 3/4

Therefore expected no of places taken = 3/4 * 2 = 1.5.

Or so I thought.....

But then I realised.....

It is actually slightly more complicated as there are now only 39 pieces of paper and they need to be picked in the first 29 (as if they are picked 30th then there is only space for 1 of them) so expected trip goers are 29/39 2 + 1/39 1 = 59/39 which is slightly higher than 1.5.

But presumably if they were drawn 30th then they would turn down the 1 place so actually expected places are 58 / 39 which is slightly less than 1.5.

So as long as they committed to turning down a single place then it would (very very slightly) advantage all the others.

Have I missed anything else??????

Ooooh - that was fun! Grin

fastdaytears · 13/07/2015 22:18

YANBU to decide not to let them go (or even tell them that one was picked) if only one space.

YABVU to think that your children should have better odds than children who weren't twins.

Mumoftwoyoungkids · 13/07/2015 22:19

Lweji we cross posted!

SoupDragon · 13/07/2015 22:21

To compare it to friends or neighbours is just daft. Or even siblings in different years, it is very different.

DSs school has a lower school ski trip. Both DSs would have been eligible to go. How is it different that only one of them might get picked should the trip be over subscribed?

It isn't.

Mehitabel6 · 13/07/2015 22:26

I think it is good for twins not to be counted as a pair. I can't see why they are a special case- they are two different people.

Lweji · 13/07/2015 22:26

Mumoftwoyoungkids

I wonder too about whether there would be two tickets for both, or just one ticket for both.
And my brain refuses to engage in calculating the actual chances of separate tickets leading to both going. They can't end up with a 1.5 chance, surely. Or can they?

WinterOfOurDiscountTents15 · 13/07/2015 22:31

So basically op's position is that her twins are to be treated as individuals until it suits her/them for them not to be, and she can't tell us why the fact that they were born at the same time makes them so special, but they are.

Hmm
Mumoftwoyoungkids · 13/07/2015 22:32

You have to have 1 ticket for both.

2 tickets and they both get to go if either is picked bumps their chances up to 15/16 and so advantageous.

If there was an infinite number of people with 75% selected (or even just 4 million with 3 million selected) then it would be 1.5. It's just because of the 30th draw that it doesn't quite work I think.

zipzap · 13/07/2015 22:32

Is there no way the school can look at increasing the numbers on the trip so that more can go?

If it's never been over subscribed before it was reasonable of them to assume similar numbers of places this year, but 10 is a small enough number to increase the booking by that they should still be able to get a coach, and do things as a group, even with an extra member of staff. if it had been say 50 up to 60 then that would have been difficult to do as it would mean a new coach to take the group anywhere which would have pushed prices up considerably.

I would be suggesting that in the future they send out letters in advance to get an expression of interest so they can book the right number of places!

To leave a quarter of students not going when there's an expectation that everybody goes is quite a significant proportion of them that are going to be very upset.

Pumpkinpositive · 13/07/2015 22:34

What about Irish twins in the same class at school?

Should they both get to go too?

kali110 · 13/07/2015 22:41

My head hurts looking at all those numbers!

Mumoftwoyoungkids · 13/07/2015 22:52

Kali - but they are so lovely!

Pumpkinpositive · 13/07/2015 23:00

Kali - but they are so lovely!

Anyone for a spot of modal logic, what?

paddyclampo · 13/07/2015 23:01

Where are they going on the trip? Is it a once in a lifetime kind of place?

MidniteScribbler · 14/07/2015 01:19

but 10 is a small enough number to increase the booking by that they should still be able to get a coach, and do things as a group, even with an extra member of staff.

You have to get the staff first. If this is a trip on the holidays, then staff need to volunteer to go, and you can't force them to go. People have their own families to spend time with, some may simply just want to have their holidays.

Millionprammiles · 14/07/2015 08:35

I'm still trying to get over the fact that schools arrange trips that not all children can go to.
How is that inclusive? How is that offering education for all (assuming the trips are meant to be educational)?

And 10 days via a long haul flight?? Tell me this isn't a state school. Please.