Indyref8

[grovel]

ItsAllGoingToBeFine, but who will be Prime Minister? Pretty unsatisfactory changing halfway through. My suggestion was that maybe Cameron, Clegg, Miliband et al agree on a team and step back themselves. It would make the end result a joint enterprise and could prevent years of feuding in rUK.

I agree Yes support is widespread among every type of worker pretty much.

Then again I couldn't categorise the no's. Beyond saying it's less talked of and much more quietly. Like a secret society! which is still amusing at this stage but I hope the atmosphere improves.

Ever hopeful!

Great post Chocoluvva

I agree with much of what you say. However, I do disagree that Scotland can have any sort of moderating influence from within the UK. Fundamentally, and I know you disagree, I think it is best that countries rule themselves. I also think that smaller countries are often successful, and that Scotland's circumstances mean it can be very successful. I really don't think we can somehow stay and "help" the rUK, they need to help themselves - we are too wee.

Mammuza the Credit Suisse Success of Small Nations is well worth a read
publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/?fileID=1CC21D53-CD3A-CB77-C15AD96D67EE1210

Link triggers download

Several things concern me.

1.Which way will those who are undecided vote ? Or will these be the 10-15% not voting in which case the recent poll is to be believed ?

2 The next is the question of nationality/passports.
I cannot see how after a yes vote, the people of Scotland will be able to continue to hold their British passports and travel and settle anywhere in the EU without necessarily being a member, there will be restrictions certainly, making those wanting to ship out in the event of a yes vote finding it more difficult than they imagine.

1. Money /Economy

We've had statements from Standard Life, and RBS yesterday. Neither have said they will shut down and pull out of Scotland, but both have said they have contingency plans. The majority of Standard Life's customers are not Scottish, and they have said they will protect their assets. I believe that means they will take all their assets out of Scotland in the event of a Yes vote. It can only be a matter of time before the jobs move too. Somebody else upthread said leaving Scotland's Financial services industry as a call centre economy. Moving head offices tends to mean moving the jobs too, I would have thought. John Lewis are also saying that prices will be higher, that is a certainty. I think.

If I lived in Scotland, I still think I would be undecided - I don't think the WM visits yesterday did much to help the no campaign.

I also think that if there is a yes vote, the one good thing to come of it would be David Cameron's head on a plate for not allowing DevoMax on the ballet paper.

I also sincerely hope that having got what he thought he wanted in the event of a yes vote (not convinced he ever actually wanted independence, it was forced upon him by WM/DC in particular) we will also see the last of AS.

I cannot see how after a yes vote, the people of Scotland will be able to continue to hold their British passports and travel and settle anywhere in the EU without necessarily being a member,

Unless rUK refuses (no precedent to suggest they would) after a Yes vote Scots would be dual citizens and could continue to hold British passport. Of course that won't help when if rUK leaves the EU.

I also think that if there is a yes vote, the one good thing to come of it would be David Cameron's head on a plate for not allowing DevoMax on the ballet paper.

Yup

I also think SNP may well disappear. Many voted for them because they wanted independence, once we get that the SNP don't really offer anything that special. I reckon a Scottish Labour going back to labour values rather than Tory lite will do quite well.

We can argue about the eventual jobs impact of the Standard Life, RBS & Lloyds announcements, but the key thing is that they represent the 'Flagship' Financial Services sector, one of the pillars of the Scottish economy.

It further demonstrates that while Scotland is a prosperous and wealthy nation within the UK, our economic strength is very narrowly based.

Over 60% of Scottish GDP is generated from just 4 areas (the balance is largely public sector): Oil Industry, Financial Services, Manufacturing (principally Food & Drink) & Tourism

We know the uncertainties surrounding Oil & Financial Services, however how many Scots are aware that c.60% of Manufacturing & Tourism Income is generated from England?

As previous posters have said, this makes these industries very vulnerable to changes in rUK consumer choices if there is an 'Independence Backlash'.

I think this is just the tip of the iceberg of the known & unintended consequences of a decision we'd be crazy to make, yet AS continues to dismiss these legitimate concerns.

Hopefully the Scottish people will now start to see through the spin & manipulation, which has caused such division in the country.

www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-rbs-move-no-jobs-threatened-1-3537879

RBS staff reassured.

I'd love to see a proper Scottish Labour reappear with politicians with balls.

That we can agree on Tinkerball. It will be a relief from the will it won't it and unpleasant behaviour on both sides.

I think we will not only not help the rUK by leaving but actually harm it.

I have huge respect for wanting to take a stand internationally against WM policies.

However I don't think the consequences of leaving the UK will be good for anyone.

And it seems such a pity to not be able to get along with the rUK and break it up.

I can't imagine there being much support for inde if we didn't have 'the oil. I'm really fed up of hearing about the oil

I suppose if RBS are promising no job losses, this is a good thing. Although if all the money is down south in sterling, it may only be a matter of time....

Still doesn't help the undecideds.

Found this interesting...
www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/assets-firm-boss-iscotland-would-be-big-success.1410431112

I suppose if RBS are promising no job losses, this is a good thing. Although if all the money is down south in sterling, it may only be a matter of time....

Exactly. I don't know how they can definetly say there won't be at the moment.

They've said "it is not an intention to move operations or jobs". That's called hedging your bets and stopping your employees panicking whilst your share price suffers. Only a matter of time.

It's All - this is one guy's opinion, no evidence really to back up his claims. In fact he is actually saying that Scotland would be better off without a currency union so we would have no debt.
Long term, that will be economic suicide, in my opinion. We'd have to have a union ourselves with either the Bank of England or with the European Central Bank - and I am not sure we would be able to do the latter without entering the euro. And also if we have to have currency union with the BoE - what is the point in independence at all ?

So the ambiguity of yesterday's messages was ignored and it was said time and time again that we'd lose all our financial services.

Today's clear message to the contrary is dismissed. .

That makes sense.

slow handclap

It's All - this is one guy's opinion, no evidence really to back up his claims. In fact he is actually saying that Scotland would be better off without a currency union so we would have no debt.

Lots of others share the opinions. Plus as head of one of UKs largest investment managers I'd imagine his knowledge of financial stuff to be reasonably sound.

For different companies, a lot depends on what they sell and who they sell it to. I don't know the profile of Aberdeen's customer base.

Presume you don't mind losing the corporation tax of a good few others. And re jobs - there are various rules around which jobs have to be in your head office.

But as with everything, people will put their own opinion and provide links to support their case, and then someone will come along and do the same for the other side.

I don't know the profile of Aberdeen's customer base

"As an international investment management group, institutions and private investors trust us to manage their assets from our offices around the world.

Listed on the London Stock Exchange, we have more than 30 years of experience to draw on, and have seen three decades of expansion through growth and acquisition."
From their website.

Lovely Rita - I don't think todays messages are being ignored - it's just they are not positive enough.I don't see how these organisations can maintain their large workforces in Scotland when they need sterling for their operations and that will be subject to many months if not years of negotiation.

Its All - you are quite right - for every one person saying yes another says no.

There is no answer on here or out there - everything is somebody's opinion. Hence the uncertainty.

That's not a "clear message", all the best intentions in the world don't mean jack shit. I've been on the receiving end of one of those "keep calm, no-one's losing their job" emails from the CEO of a multi-national bank and, guess what? I got made redundant six months later due to a change in stategy.

There's a distinct difference between that internal statement and the confirmation that companies are planning to base themselves in England in the event of a Yes vote.

Confirmed. Total voter reg for the #indyref is 4,285,323 (incl. 789,024 by postal vote and 35,461 by proxy) t.co/yeLSVZnZRd

Wow!

Wow indeed.

Out of a population of 5.2 million and excluding those ineligible to vote that's a massive figure. I hope everyone turns out on the day.

Here from the Herald - 100 business leaders saying no thanks....

www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/the-100-scottish-business-leaders-backing-no.1410426440

Interpretation and perception clouded by opinion.