To think this is starting to look like UKIP revolution

[FidelineandFumblin]

and apparently similar results across Europe.

Front Nationale have done particularly well in France. Guardian is reporting similar successes for far right parties in Greece and Denmark.

I am unnerved.

'It is ALL about the EU issue and immigration, because it cant be about UKIPS policies... they have none'

It is not really about the EU. It is more about immigration, but even that is not truly it. Chuka Umunna and Miliband and Lord Glasman are right - it is not about the EU - but Labour are occasionally making the mistake to think it is just about the economy and jobs and cost of living. It isn't that either.

It is about absolutely everything. It is about a breakdown in trust of the entire political class. It is about them not being "on our side" in so many ways. As Lord Glasman said it is about the electorate feeling "powerless" and feeling that the elite are not listening. That is why the political class will find it difficult to fix.

Id love to be a fly on the wall in Westminster right now, Theresa May heavily hinted they would be doing lots more about immigration from within the EU if it were not for the Lib Dems,

I wonder if the coalition could split? Would be reasonable if Tories were now more focussed on repositioning/electioneering than in more three-legged legislating.

I suppose it will take all parties a week or two to fully regroup. So we won't really see their response to last night's result before that.

claig Yes, that's exactly it. Maggie was clearly 'on your side' (unless she wasn't, in which case you were screwed). Cameron isn't on the side of the working class, and Red Ed and liar eurocrat Clegg certainly aren't.

Iceland is independent from Europe and by all accounts they are doing brilliantly.

I would rather be negotiating fishing areas with various countries (something we've done for many years pre-EU and will continue to do for many years after) than be paying billions of tax pounds a year to a set of elite in Brussels who seem to be distributing the money somewhere but where I am unsure.

Yes, Maggie was "on our side".
I am from Essex and we voted Maggie in, because she was "for us".
Now we have switched to UKIP and we are the bellwether county. I think it will only get worse.

Has anyone got the percentage votes in the regions - I saw that 35% of us in the Eastern Region voted UKIP. I think it may be the highest level in the whole of the country. We are switching away from the Tories because they are no longer "one of us".

The reason people switch off when politicians say 'negotiations' is not because those negotiations are irrelevant, but because it is a classic political spin to avoid answering a direct question

'can we have an in/out referendum on Europe' yes or NO, not 'we will negotiate and then maybe' that is what switches people off.

'can we take control of our immigration policies and become more like Australia (which unfortunately a lot of people want)' yes or NO

That is it, that is what one of the main parties need to deliver in order to get into power next year.

For the South West of the country - traditional LibDem land - to switch to UKIP is also very significant. It is a stunner. It shows how deep the discontent with the political class has gone.

The discontent in France has also grown enormously.

It is no use blaming the people, the voters. It is all the fault of the elite and the political class who ignored ordinary people and lectured and looked down on them for years over so many different issues that to undo what they have done will now be an enormous challenge. Spin won't cut it. They have to get real. But are they in the real world in their bubble and can they understand?

Discussing immigration doesn't necessarily have anything to do with racism/xenophobia. I'm sure that a lot of the people who voted UKIP (especially in the north) have seen their wages reduce significantly (and in many cases their jobs lost) because so many skilled EU migrants will do the job for much less and are prepared to live in really bad conditions in order to save money. Of course this doesn't effect the metropolitan elite, I'm sure Miliband or Clegg doesn't worry about having their job replaced by a Pole who will work longer hours for half the pay. Even if that were the case, these two could fall back on their vast (inherited) wealth or their chummy big business friends to find another well paying job quickly.

Immigration is certainly good for big business such and for landlords. Big business gets very cheap labour and if they don't pay enough to live on, no worries, they can always be subsidised by the tax payer via working tax credits. Landlords also benefit because poor, low paid jobs means more housing benefit for them. The ones that stand to benefit the most from uncontrolled immigration are the rich and corporations. The working class have seen their livelihoods and lifestyles deteriorate rapidly.

But why would the political elite care. It doesn't affect them and most of them are career politicians who are only in politics because they've got huge egos that need stroking (Boris/Cameron/Balls/Clegg) and like power and easy money, not because they are pragmatists or altruists, like the politicians of old.

"It is about absolutely everything. It is about a breakdown in trust of the entire political class. It is about them not being "on our side" in so many ways. As Lord Glasman said it is about the electorate feeling "powerless" and feeling that the elite are not listening. That is why the political class will find it difficult to fix."

^ Totally agree.

Iceland are desperately trying to fulfil all the conditions they need to to join the EU.

'Iceland are desperately trying to fulfil all the conditions they need to to join the EU.'

Smaller, weaker countries nearly all want to join in order to benefit from handouts, aid or funding from a powerful large entity, but it is the larger countries such as the UK and France whose people are increasingly sceptical about the benefits. There is a divide between the people and the political class in the larger countries.

The people voted in large numbers for populist, anti EU parties and the elite want to stay in.

Absolutely, claig, but people were holding Iceland up as a model to emulate. Which it isn't on a number of levels.

I disagree, I think being as independent as possible while trying to get trade unions and agreements with europe is exactly where we need to be.

Thanks, Jassy, I haven't read the whole thread, so missed the stuff about Iceland

Do you honestly think Europe would agree to a free trade deal with none of the conditions Norway, Switzerland etc have accepted?

I don't think 'Europe' are going to have much of a choice if the polls stay as they are.

Yes, Europe will have to agree, because France is also Eurosceptic and the socialists are very unpopular there, so the next French government will probably also be eurosceptic.

Well, you can't have it all ways. If your argument is that the UK leaves the EU and gets a free trade agreement, then you need to be clear on the likelihood of that and what conditions would be attached - such as those imposed on Iceland now.

If the EU dissolves (unlikely) then that's a whole different kettle of fish. But don't kid yourself that an EU pissed off at both member state and Commission level would go out of their way to do the UK any favours. Much more politically expedient to show the benefits of membership by whacking tariffs on British exports so that locally produced goods were relatively cheaper, delivering benefits to member states.

vitaminz - agree with your post. My husband goes to football regularly and meets up with the same group of men year after year. They are a mixed bunch, mainly in their thirties and forties, doing factory, distribution, manual jobs. They all, to a man voted Ukip at this election, even those who had not voted before.

In fact, a messy British exit would be a gift to the Commission and pro-EU parties and states. It would be in their interests to make it as messy and uncomfortable for Britain as possible so that we could then be used as an example of what terrible things would befall you if you left, and how much better union is that isolation. Absolute political gift.

I would never want to be the first to go, frankly.

I think the EU will dissolve eventually but it may take some years yet. I think it will be France that leaves first and then it will collapse.

I don't know what the deal will be if we leave, but as we are the EU's major trading partner, I think we wil probably be able to make a better deal than Norway or Switzerland, but I don't know how it will be done.

"It would be in their interests to make it as messy and uncomfortable for Britain as possible so that we could then be used as an example of what terrible things would befall you if you left"

Good point, but there are Eurosceptics in other countries and they would see how the elite treated Britain and that would only emphasise the unaccountable power of the elite and bolster the Eurosceptic vote in those countries.

Twenty six countries now in the EU. Fair enough some trade agreements and guidlines. But federation of Europe? No thanks.

For the South West of the country - traditional LibDem land - to switch to UKIP is also very significant. It is a stunner. It shows how deep the discontent with the political class has gone.

I think you've read too much into that. The SW does have large pockets of lib dem voters but it also has a huge conservative base. The out going MEPs consisted of 3 conservative, 2 UKIP and 1 lib dem. The conservatives and UKIP had over 50% of the vote share from 2009 between them.

UKIP did get an increase in vote share but I think that mostly comes from the collapse of the BNP vote here, a number of anti-EU parties that ran last time not running this time and a slight decrease in the conservative vote.

The decrease in Lib Dem vote is a pretty close match to the increase in labour and green vote. Obviously that's a generalisation, and doesn't speak for every voter ,but it does seem to fit with what I know lib dem voting friends of mine have done. I don't know whether that will have played out across the whole region and across all age groups.

Yeah, I get that, claig, but I think in these votes there are the hard, determined votes and then a large group that's relatively soft and receptive to that sort of approach by the commission. Also, first rule of diplomacy: it's always harder to negotiate with someone who's already pissed off with you.

On trade - Are we? They're our biggest export market, sure, but what balance of EU imports comes from us, and how much of that would be easily displaced from elsewhere in the EEA or conversely from cheaper countries not part of a trade bloc?

Off to Google for me. As you know I think leaving the EU is a defensible position as long as there's a plan for Day 2. Haven't seen one of those from any party so far.