Fuck. Russian bomb has hit Poland.

Agree with all you say.

OMG, I feel sick.

DS1 is in the army and I don’t cope with the potential of him maybe having to go to war, despite being married to a serviceman for 28yrs. I’m on my own tonight, too, so don’t even have DH here to talk some sense into me.

They are being launched from the Black Sea so what do no fly zones have to do with anything?

Hopefully none hurt, but a misguided missile doesn’t mean anything in the grand scheme. Nobody can afford further escalation.

An alternative 'slippery slope' would be escalating direct to WW3 if it actually was an accident.

It was obviously an "accident" I imagine Russia will apologise and things will go back to what they were. NATO is in effect US policy and they will be looking to crank this down. If NATO was to retaliate militarily then yes I would indeed be very worried but I think the likelihood of that to be minimal. The last thing Europe of the US wants is an expansion of the war in Ukraine.

I think it’s unreasonable to make the comparison at the end, as it probably was an accident and it’s therefore not a question of it being “passed off” as such. NATO are not, given the atrocities that have taken place, going to respond militarily to this.

You want to be scared: you’re not actually scared.

Between this and the hints towards antisemitism on another thread you really are showing yourself up tonight. Let me guess you have a degree in international affairs too.

It depends if Poland ask them to.

Stepping does not have to mean the NATO alliance using military force.

I suspect there will be lots of phone calls gong to and from and then as someone said upthread "cool heads will prevail".

This was no accident.
The timing was too succinct chiming with the world leaders convening and Russia leaving earlier today.

Russia is testing the boundaries. Russia is testing Nato.

This is very very serious.

We are here

I agree with this point as well. People are understandably panicking and upset but that will not be taken into account at the decision making table.

Putin has nothing left to lose, he has lost the war in Ukraine - and even he knows that now, he has tossed in his last chip so to speak, the roulette is now spinning.

Sergey Lavrov and Russia were humiliated today on the world stage, Putin is no doubt incandescent and it has become too much.

I think we can expect to see the end game coming into focus now.

Well, unless you're Polish.

If NATO act, doesn't that = World War 3?

How do you know it wasn’t an accident.

It’s all speculation but looks more like a couple of rouge missiles rather then a deliberate attack.

Poland would have to ask NATO to intervene

yes obviously.

Which will wipe most of us out with the bombs they have now.

Kiss your ass goodbye if a WW3 starts.

NATO bombed the Chinese Embassy in Serbia in 1999 in an accident and killed 3 Chinese diplomats, the US apologised and there were no recriminations. This was a farm seemingly of no military value. I think we can safely assume the US will not be allowing Poland to invoke Article 5, but Poland could respond unilaterally if they so chose but I'm sure they won't and would be heavily discouraged by the US behind the scenes if that were to be the case.

Diplomats have this in hand I hope.

Western Propaganda?!

You think the west needs propaganda?! 🤣

Putin’s doing it all for them all by himself, the absolute chump that he is. Steadily hoisting himself by his own petard.

Don't worry, NATO will give for Russia couple of more sanctions, that's it. Poland already trying to mask it saying that tractor exploded at the farm.

Ok sensible post here for those shitting themselves.

IF IT IS RUSSIA

1. Poland would have to agree to trigger Article 5 to involve NATO. There isn't a huge amount of incentive to do that at this stage tbh. That would mean many more Polish dead...
2. The Polish HAVE to look deadly serious regardless for a domestic audience. They will need to be seen to 'do something'. So expect more aid to Ukraine and strong words etc etc as a more likely outcome.

HOWEVER there is some speculation it could actually be a Ukrainian anti-missile rocket to take out Russian missiles thats gone stray.

twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1592595298484125697

Oliver Alexander AT OAlexanderDK
Have not yet been able to make a conclusive ID of the debris found at the site in Poland.

At this time though, I would not rule out a Ukrainian S-300 malfunctioning. This piece of debris does look similar to end of the rocket engine.

Additional S-300 debris that looks similar to the debris found in Poland.

There is also the possibility of Russia again using S-300s against ground targets, which they have done previously.

The thread above is interesting. It says that S-300s have very identifible fragments so they will know quickly. If it is a S-300 the range they have raises questions about whether Russia has the range to hit that particular area.

But not everyone is in agreement about it being a
The Intel Crab AT intelcrab
Physically, yes. But the crater we keep seeing seems far to large for an S-300. We shall wait and see.

Either way I don't believe there is no reason to panic. Its likely NATO will have discussed this as a scenario already. There will be a lot of rhetoric if it is Russia, but this isn't an event on a scale large enough to merit article 5 imho.

Ruslan Trad AT ruslantrad
It should be noted by outside observers that the region around Ukraine is experiencing increasing incidents due to Russian forces and military actions.
Bulgaria often finds sea mines, and a few days ago it found the body of a Ukrainian pilot in the coastal area.

Omg.