Crisis What Crisis? The One You Start To Wish You'd Stockpiled Like Your Crazy Friend? Continuation thread (3)

[RedToothBrush]

Previous threads
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5585259-crisis-what-crisis-is-my-friend-over-doing-the-stockpiling-and-am-i-too-continuation-thread-2?page=1

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.
This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

ROUGH STATUS REPORT (as of 9am 22nd Oct - please note this isn't fully comprehensive, and is moving FAST)
Civil Unrest reported in:
France, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Albania, Indonesia - multi reasons, but largely due to economic pressures and the cost of living
Spain has had problems but these have temporarily stopped, probably due to significant weather related issues due to the Dana effect
More protests planned for this coming weekend
High Alert in the Middle East:
Netanyahu now committed to regime change in Iran, as he believes they are developing a nuke.
The US has pulled all Embassy Staff from Saudi Arabia and is hoping no one notices that they've ordered personal and families across the Gulf home and then seem to have lied that they have.
The Emir of Qatar has stated at their equivalent of the annual King's Speech at the Opening of Parliament that war was coming and to prepare for the worst scenarios. US pulling planes out of Qatar.
The Egyptian PM has warned the country of severe crisis ahead - given the nature of the country this is related to their alliance with Saudi Arabia and their reliance on the Suez Canal which the Yemeni rebels now control access to and their exposure to famine
Iran is saying if there is another attack, the gloves are off and they'll try and wipe out the middle east oil industry as they go down, as well as hitting critical civilian infrastructure.
Much movement / noise is similar to run up to the first US attacks this year. Debate over whether the attack will come before the Israeli Election or the US Midterms - possibly within 72hours - latest mood music suggests potentially this weekend. Seems to be shifting to a when not if.
Israel election: 27th Oct
Prices and Shortages:
Diesel needs no real reminder - we need it for haulage, mass transportation and farming, we are screwed without it. Fuel Emergency declarations in West Virgina, Kentucky, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Nebraska and Texas - typically allowing limited dyed diesel use for ag or commercial vehicles. Illinois and Missouri have also allowed by not under emergency orders. Less reported is the fertiliser shortage and knock on effect, poor yields this year and the effect of El Nino on next years, sulphur export bans and the blockade on Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports which are particularly crucial in feeding North Africa and the Middle East. This is liable to have significant impact on the UK with 6% rises in food already expected next year (and there's every reason to believe this will be higher especially with civil unrest all over the place). Reports of aviation fuel running low in some parts of Europe with emergency supplies (which can't last forever) being used.
El Nino:
See above about farming and also think of disasters - like the ones Spain is facing with flooding. Storm Austin is incoming and there is a weather warning for the South of England with power outages and flooding possible today/tomorrow.
The Internet:
PHP is 70% of the internet. Its got compromised so it can pretty much all be hacked. This is VERY BAD (in capital letters). Many websites offline whilst this is sorted including multiple government ones around the world.
Just AI generally - everything from putting everyone out of work to just hacking and killing us all. No Biggie.
Trump and the Mid Terms:
Trump is firmly losing his marbles. He's defected to Russia, can't stop rambling about men's arses, is waving at non-existent people, his team are known to be considering ways to impose martial law, he's getting heckled at Trump rallies by his own supporters, 83% of all voters think the biggest problem in the US now isn't the cost of living crisis but government corruption. He's being called a traitor by some of his fellow Reds. Mid Terms look a disaster and Trump probably won't accept them. He's reversing bills that Congress passed weeks ago by executive order.
Mid-Terms: 3rd Nov
Ukraine and Russia:
Ukraine facing massive problems still cos Elon has got the ump. Starlink isn't working at face enough speeds. They've bombed a shedload of Data Centres in Russia. This has killed off the Russian Internet and many Trump/Musk supporters in the process (one way or another) which screws up Twitter (and its value) for them. Ukraine is getting blamed for diesel shortages cos they refuse to stop hitting Russian refineries even though it has no choice now its been cut off by the US. Zelenskyy now says Trump isn't an ally. Trump wants Zelensky gone and thinks Putin is being reasonable and Ukraine doesn't want peace. Germany states it would have activated Art5 if the confirmed Russian sabotage attack on Liepzig had been successful.
Russia is apparently planning to step up its sabotage campaign in Europe after having successfully sunk a few boats in EU waters (Romania / Bulgaria - these sinkings have been in both international waters off the coast AND within their official territorial waters).
Economy:
Lots of debt. Much concern over the implications of this particularly with regards to AI and state debt in the US, UK, France and Japan (but not restricted to). Much money put into gold by China. Background of this bad given the approach of potentially multiple crisis.
France Moody's credit review: Due tomorrow 23rd Oct - expected to be not good especially in the current political climate in France
UK Budget: 28th October

They are all interconnected and one or many could tip us into abject chaos. Or not. The risks here are sky high. Of what? Take your pick.

That's a very "helpful" and informative list that brings everything into one place.
I do agree that we seem to be spiralling down into chaos.
I watched a programme last night on food supplies and the manager of one of the huge refrigerator plants that supplies supermarkets on a just in time basis, admitted that all the red lights are flashing.

I think any sensible household would make plans for an emergency.
Obviously Americans are all planning to run around the wilderness with guns, bug out bags and oversized camouflage outfits.
But we live in little Britain.
However there are some excellent clips on YouTube about what supplies are suitable and what to expect.

I make sure I keep cash hidden in the house, and plenty of OTC medications. As an older person my biggest fear is our meds running out.

Thanks for the new thread! Just noting the link in the old thread doesn't send one here.

Sorted.

Thanks for the new thread

I need to make a plan where to hide and keep cash safe. I have under 300 at the moment but as it grows I need a better plan.

Cash safe and safe from fire too? If anyone has any suggestions I would be grateful, thanks

Thank you very much @RedToothBrush. It is very helpful that you've brought everything together under one post/ update... with some humour thrown in for good measure (we all need it!)

There are now so many signs of collapse. On the tech stuff, there is now no way to slow down or stop what is happening.

It will be a major shift in mindset for people to view success in life as maintaining their current position i.e. keep property, keep jobs etc. Any improvement in quality of life seems much harder to reach now.

Aren't things always a bit like this? Wars somewhere causing disruption and shortages, riots somewhere causing havoc (often in the UK), economic woes often here, El Nino a bad one every few years, climate change forever, US Presidents, assassinated, disgraced, mental deterioration and of course Trump, terrorism from some group or other. The weaknesses in php have been identified and fixed, thanks to AI analysis so internet meltdown avoided, this time, remember the millennium bug or lack of.

The word is SNAFU, situation normal all fucked up.

Take reasonable precautions but nothing much you can do, remember the cold war, bay of pigs, nuclear proliferation, star wars program (not the movies), twin towers, Lockerbie, Chernobyl, etc, etc. I don't remember any time where I felt totally safe from some disaster.

Checking in

Checking in

Thx for the useful summary RTB, also for all the commenters, plenty to think about

Crikey RTB, what an excellent and scary summary.
Many thanks for your vigilance and hard work.

All we need now is for Apophis to veer towards us (apparently it will miss us by 30 minutes) or for the aliens to arrive.

Sometimes I feel a bit inadequate, putting a few extra tins of beans away…

I'd argue there's always bad news. But the degree to which so many are tied together with so many multiple factors that are so closely linked is a lot more troubling.

For example, the global financial position makes it much harder to absorb a lot of these issues.

And some of these issues that perhaps have stayed regional have a high risk of being global and there's a domino effect risk too.

We have not had a scenario of complete industrial gridlock, economic and political meltdown to this degree since the 1930s. Serious incidents which may have become bigger but they existed against a different political background and economic basis.

Europe and the US in particular have had an enormous period of stability - that has evaporated.

That is the overall overriding point and problem tbh.

It's like everything all at once and I'm not alone in observing this, even amongst a lot of very (old) seasoned journalist types.

I was speaking to my mother the other day. Even she was saying that this is the shakiest that she has ever seen things. At mid seventies she isn't worried for herself as overall she has had a good life- but she worries for the grandchildren . Never in a million years did she think she would see USA and Russia so close

I'm glad that my grandmother isn't around to see all of this.

@RedToothBrush thank you for the new thread and the time it has taken for you to put that summary together.
Whatever is going to occupy your time this weekend I hope is nice and that you can switch off a little.

Another one thanking RedToothBrush for all their hard work pulling together all these updates. Honestly if we just read the headlines in this country we really would be quite clueless as to what is going on round the world.

I've been eating my stockpile because 1) I bought far too much, like about 6 months worth and 2) I've spent all my money on said stockpile.

I'm noticing how sluggish and unhealthy I am feeling already eating tinned foods rather than my usual fruit, salad, proteins, yogurt etc. Tinned mackeral/sardines makes me feel okay but so much of this food must just be lacking in nutrients and full of artifical stuff. Okay for emergencies for don't fancy having no access to fresh stuff for months at a time (I mean if our supermarkets start having empty shelves).

I wish I knew how bad things were going to get. I mean is eating my stockpile a good idea since I bought so much of it or am I going to wish I kept 6 months worth of food.

I suppose I have stocked up on things that I like but wouldn't normally buy and I have to admit I have been tucking into those - cereal bars and cheesy crackers.

You don't realise how much you appreciate fresh stuff until you don't have it anymore.

Can't believe how bad things are sounding around the world. It's been raining alot this week but today sun is out, just had my coffee and it's hard to believe so much chaos is ensuing. I suppose nobody really believes it until it's at their own front door.

Anyway I feel a Tesco shop of fresh food coming on (while I still can) as it sounds like the end of the world is nudging closer.

Enjoy your weekend away RedToothBrush.

Thanks for the new thread. Really appreciate all the effort of keeping everyone updated RTB.

Andrew Bowie MP (Scottish Conservative)
🚨Sneaked out by OFGEM this morning, a warning for the first time EVER they cannot guarantee that demand will be met on a peak day in winter.

Let’s be clear what that means. They cannot guarantee that homes will be warm, lights come on or industry function on a peak day this winter.

And why? Because of an accelerated decline in domestic gas supply from the North Sea.

So what is the solution? For British bill payers to pay more, to IMPORT more from Europe (specifically Belgium) to keep the lights on in Britain.

Britain. A country with vast supplies of gas, untapped, deliberately due to Labour policy now going cap in hand to Europe and paying vast sums to import foreign gas.

It is utterly outrageous. You couldn’t make it up.

I think this is one of the real concerns that makes previous crisis differ.

We have massively less reliance due to a lack of self sufficiency.

Deborah Haynes (SkyNews)
🚨The UK will today launch a new push to prepare the nation to be more resilient, Wes Streeting, the defence secretary, has revealed.

He said the updated guidance will encourage households to be better prepared for crises such as wild fires & flooding. The public also needs to prepare for hostile acts such as “increasingly sophisticated cyber attacks”

Interesting timing. They only had a push on this a couple of weeks ago too. So why ANOTHER push?!

Once again, we've had a lot of crisis over the years, but this hasn't happened in all of those has it?

Timour Azhari (Reuters)
Saudi Aramco has instructed staff to evacuate its headquarters in Dhahran and work remotely, six sources with knowledge of the matter said on Thursday.

Aramco did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Excellent summing up @RedToothBrush - all looking a bit bleak, isn't it?

Al Arabiya English
BREAKING: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that he will not ask US President Donald Trump for a green light to strike Iran.

For the weather-minded out there, Storm Austen is due later today and overnight mainly in Cornwall and Devon to start with then coastal West and South Wales and southern England. Highest rainfall likely in Scotland. Impacts mainly wind-related, but rain in Scotland could also cause problems. Other areas will also be windy as well but not as strong as in the main warning zones. Make sure you've prepped for this if you're in affected areas and check your area for warnings.

A couple of days later (Saturday) Storm Boelo is due to impact all of us, bringing more wind and rain. Winds strongest in northern/western Scotland.

Plenty to keep an eye on!

Yes indeed.

Two points on the above tweets.

Why is the DEFENCE Minister telling us to prepare for fires and floods (and by the way also cyber attacks as a secondary point too would be nice) and not the ENVIRONMENT Minister? Be clear about this, his priority and remit is DEFENCE not the effects of the weather.

Also. If Netanyahu has a vested self interest in it kicking off BEFORE the Israeli Election and Trump has a conflicting interest in it kicking off AFTER the midterms and he says 'Im not going to wait for Trump to say Go', what he's actually saying is he's probably going to do something BEFORE Tuesday whether Trump likes it or not...

Checks date

So we are on the 23rd and he's effectively got until the 26th...

I think this is probably squeaky bum time.

New Torch and battery radio ordered

Some torches have twenty percent off with light20 code at Argos

I think if it gets to the point everyone is wishing they had 6 months of food just to survive then the country is pretty much in apocalypse type times.

I'm there in that wishing.

I don't think it will be the apocalypse times, but I'd still feel a hell of a lot better!