Crisis What Crisis? The One You Start To Wish You'd Stockpiled Like Your Crazy Friend? Continuation thread (3)

[RedToothBrush]

Previous threads
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5585259-crisis-what-crisis-is-my-friend-over-doing-the-stockpiling-and-am-i-too-continuation-thread-2?page=1

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.
This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

ROUGH STATUS REPORT (as of 9am 22nd Oct - please note this isn't fully comprehensive, and is moving FAST)
Civil Unrest reported in:
France, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Albania, Indonesia - multi reasons, but largely due to economic pressures and the cost of living
Spain has had problems but these have temporarily stopped, probably due to significant weather related issues due to the Dana effect
More protests planned for this coming weekend
High Alert in the Middle East:
Netanyahu now committed to regime change in Iran, as he believes they are developing a nuke.
The US has pulled all Embassy Staff from Saudi Arabia and is hoping no one notices that they've ordered personal and families across the Gulf home and then seem to have lied that they have.
The Emir of Qatar has stated at their equivalent of the annual King's Speech at the Opening of Parliament that war was coming and to prepare for the worst scenarios. US pulling planes out of Qatar.
The Egyptian PM has warned the country of severe crisis ahead - given the nature of the country this is related to their alliance with Saudi Arabia and their reliance on the Suez Canal which the Yemeni rebels now control access to and their exposure to famine
Iran is saying if there is another attack, the gloves are off and they'll try and wipe out the middle east oil industry as they go down, as well as hitting critical civilian infrastructure.
Much movement / noise is similar to run up to the first US attacks this year. Debate over whether the attack will come before the Israeli Election or the US Midterms - possibly within 72hours - latest mood music suggests potentially this weekend. Seems to be shifting to a when not if.
Israel election: 27th Oct
Prices and Shortages:
Diesel needs no real reminder - we need it for haulage, mass transportation and farming, we are screwed without it. Fuel Emergency declarations in West Virgina, Kentucky, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Nebraska and Texas - typically allowing limited dyed diesel use for ag or commercial vehicles. Illinois and Missouri have also allowed by not under emergency orders. Less reported is the fertiliser shortage and knock on effect, poor yields this year and the effect of El Nino on next years, sulphur export bans and the blockade on Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports which are particularly crucial in feeding North Africa and the Middle East. This is liable to have significant impact on the UK with 6% rises in food already expected next year (and there's every reason to believe this will be higher especially with civil unrest all over the place). Reports of aviation fuel running low in some parts of Europe with emergency supplies (which can't last forever) being used.
El Nino:
See above about farming and also think of disasters - like the ones Spain is facing with flooding. Storm Austin is incoming and there is a weather warning for the South of England with power outages and flooding possible today/tomorrow.
The Internet:
PHP is 70% of the internet. Its got compromised so it can pretty much all be hacked. This is VERY BAD (in capital letters). Many websites offline whilst this is sorted including multiple government ones around the world.
Just AI generally - everything from putting everyone out of work to just hacking and killing us all. No Biggie.
Trump and the Mid Terms:
Trump is firmly losing his marbles. He's defected to Russia, can't stop rambling about men's arses, is waving at non-existent people, his team are known to be considering ways to impose martial law, he's getting heckled at Trump rallies by his own supporters, 83% of all voters think the biggest problem in the US now isn't the cost of living crisis but government corruption. He's being called a traitor by some of his fellow Reds. Mid Terms look a disaster and Trump probably won't accept them. He's reversing bills that Congress passed weeks ago by executive order.
Mid-Terms: 3rd Nov
Ukraine and Russia:
Ukraine facing massive problems still cos Elon has got the ump. Starlink isn't working at face enough speeds. They've bombed a shedload of Data Centres in Russia. This has killed off the Russian Internet and many Trump/Musk supporters in the process (one way or another) which screws up Twitter (and its value) for them. Ukraine is getting blamed for diesel shortages cos they refuse to stop hitting Russian refineries even though it has no choice now its been cut off by the US. Zelenskyy now says Trump isn't an ally. Trump wants Zelensky gone and thinks Putin is being reasonable and Ukraine doesn't want peace. Germany states it would have activated Art5 if the confirmed Russian sabotage attack on Liepzig had been successful.
Russia is apparently planning to step up its sabotage campaign in Europe after having successfully sunk a few boats in EU waters (Romania / Bulgaria - these sinkings have been in both international waters off the coast AND within their official territorial waters).
Economy:
Lots of debt. Much concern over the implications of this particularly with regards to AI and state debt in the US, UK, France and Japan (but not restricted to). Much money put into gold by China. Background of this bad given the approach of potentially multiple crisis.
France Moody's credit review: Due tomorrow 23rd Oct - expected to be not good especially in the current political climate in France
UK Budget: 28th October

They are all interconnected and one or many could tip us into abject chaos. Or not. The risks here are sky high. Of what? Take your pick.

I asked DH about PHP. He hasn't ever used any for the supply chain he works on. He said he had never used as regards it a lazy language, usually used by lazy people who don't know much about programming taking cheap short cuts. So used a lot in website

It doesn't include the hack on PwC...

The Everest hacking group claims to have stolen 590.69 GB of data from PwC, comprising 108,426 files allegedly originating from its internal HR and learning systems.

The data reportedly includes employee information, employment and training records, internal audit methodologies, confidential documents, and SSO source code. The alleged breach affects multiple PwC regional operations, including Australia, China, Canada, and the UK, with one HR dataset reportedly containing 213,084 records.

I'm all for personal resilience but I'm wondering if the government has any plans for stockpiles and the such like.
We now realise that our just in time supply chains are so fragile. Perhaps it was a mistake getting rid of the huge gasholders and our old landline phone set up.
In many ways maybe we've gone backwards.
At least it seems more reservoirs are on the cards.

There's no money for government stockpiling. That's why they are asking us to do it.

@RedToothBrush what a state we're in.

Yes me too. I got work till 11. 30 and going straight to a supermarket after.

A government stockpile would be for them let’s face it. They don’t have the money or storage space really for a stockpile to cover the nations people.

Think about how many houses are in the uk. then imagine three days of food per house as a stock pile. Then the logistics of rotating it out and where to? The time it would take to build such a pile you’d be rotating food out before it was even finished.

I agree we should have never got rid of the gas storage. I remember watching ours being taken down.

Also - if logistics hubs like warehouse's are targets - you don't actually want all the stock in them.

Russia and Ukraine have been finding this out with attacks on the likes of Wildberries.

Our previous and current house are both considered a low flood risk. However, during the 2007 floods we had water up to and running past our doorstep into the river that had formed in the road/end of front gardens. Luckily rain had reduced but ifvit hadn't, who knows. I know the water was running down the road where we currently live. Both are obviously on a gradient without us realising.

Im never stockpile and wont.

In Finland the government has to keep and maintain a national emergency stockpile but covid showed that it hadn't been properly maintained and things were allowed to expire instead of stock being rotated. I hope to god they learnt their lesson then!

I think with personal responsibility much like Covid those of us who at least always have full cupboards and freezer means we take the the pressure off the shops when things first start to hit the fan and means we can avoid the shops till things hopefully fit into the new calm and normal rather than when everyone runs out to suddenly buy bread milk and pasta 😅

The gov has said to prepare for 3 days though bit abject chaos.

It's actually terrifying. Where are the reassuring grown ups?

I can survive for months if it all goes wrong, and no longer have aged dependents, so am not concerned by current news.

I am mostly getting the popcorn out as the govt reverses course and suddenly tells people that they need to take personal responsibility, keep cash on them, etc.

The world is in a right state.

The grown ups? Thats the preppers they are the grown ups.

I'm a natural worrier, so I worry about not having enough food etc in an emergency, then I worry if I buy extra in we will be a target for looters, then I worry if I don't I will regret it, and so on and so on.

You do you.

Nothing makes sense to me and a big part of me is therefore concluding it’s all bollocks. The government isn’t doing anything themselves that should be done. Why aren’t they re-establishing our diesel refining ability instead of running it down, or our storage capacity. Why aren’t we training loads of people to fit solar; to have proper programmes to improve insulation of existing stocks of houses. Why is Russia whose economy must have been stronger when the oligarchs owned much of London so much scarier now? If we are so much more vulnerable when everything is online, why is everything online? If China is a massive issue, why are we all driving Chinese cars? Why won’t the government pledge to increase defence spending? It’s like do as I say, not as I do and it doesn’t make sense to me. Why are we not drilling for oil which would help improve our balance of payments if our huge debt is the reason none of the above is happening, when oil prices are high and therefore revenues would be high and for the time being people will just be buying it from elsewhere (including us).

I wasn’t going to get a wood burning stove because I live in a city and I think they are not great environmentally but if I’m supposed to be stockpiling candles then I might as well get a heating option whwre I only need to find some wood. Seems sensible if all this is true. I can invite my neighbours round to mine for some warmth as well, we can share candles too.

Wood burners are brilliant. I won’t ever buy a home without one. We have one you can cook on top of too if you need to. Dont use it much, but if the power goes out we have a source of heat in winter.

Nobody will know about your stash unless you tell people.

My children just think mum always over shops. Nothing special. Dh used to think I was a bit crazy but then Covid and I was proven right now he just gives me his bank card.

If your worried that in a new Covid or something people would notice because your not at the shops just go still and not worry buy a couple of little bits that you want but not that you desperately need.

Don’t be like the chap in Scotland putting his whole operation and location in the papers.

Same in Covid. We all had to stay apart no big groups while they partied, cheated and god knows what else. But you can bet your last £1 that they have access to bunkers and food they won’t be sharing if shit hits the fan.

Ultimately the government isn’t one body it’s individuals and it’s every man for themselves in problem situations but those who can and will, will be better prepared and able to cope.

The Swedish government is starting to stock up on food again, but I don’t think they are filling warehouses with tins or blankets to hand out to everyone, that has been made clear it’s our own responsibility. They are saving things like grain and fertilizer so farms can keep growing food if a crisis hits, so from what I’ve heard the goal is just to keep the farming going.

Are you not a grown up yourself?

Nobody will know about your stash unless you tell people

Why would that matter? Marauders will just go house to house.