Crisis What Crisis? The One You Start To Wish You'd Stockpiled Like Your Crazy Friend? Continuation thread (3)

[RedToothBrush]

Previous threads
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5585259-crisis-what-crisis-is-my-friend-over-doing-the-stockpiling-and-am-i-too-continuation-thread-2?page=1

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.
This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

ROUGH STATUS REPORT (as of 9am 22nd Oct - please note this isn't fully comprehensive, and is moving FAST)
Civil Unrest reported in:
France, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Albania, Indonesia - multi reasons, but largely due to economic pressures and the cost of living
Spain has had problems but these have temporarily stopped, probably due to significant weather related issues due to the Dana effect
More protests planned for this coming weekend
High Alert in the Middle East:
Netanyahu now committed to regime change in Iran, as he believes they are developing a nuke.
The US has pulled all Embassy Staff from Saudi Arabia and is hoping no one notices that they've ordered personal and families across the Gulf home and then seem to have lied that they have.
The Emir of Qatar has stated at their equivalent of the annual King's Speech at the Opening of Parliament that war was coming and to prepare for the worst scenarios. US pulling planes out of Qatar.
The Egyptian PM has warned the country of severe crisis ahead - given the nature of the country this is related to their alliance with Saudi Arabia and their reliance on the Suez Canal which the Yemeni rebels now control access to and their exposure to famine
Iran is saying if there is another attack, the gloves are off and they'll try and wipe out the middle east oil industry as they go down, as well as hitting critical civilian infrastructure.
Much movement / noise is similar to run up to the first US attacks this year. Debate over whether the attack will come before the Israeli Election or the US Midterms - possibly within 72hours - latest mood music suggests potentially this weekend. Seems to be shifting to a when not if.
Israel election: 27th Oct
Prices and Shortages:
Diesel needs no real reminder - we need it for haulage, mass transportation and farming, we are screwed without it. Fuel Emergency declarations in West Virgina, Kentucky, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Nebraska and Texas - typically allowing limited dyed diesel use for ag or commercial vehicles. Illinois and Missouri have also allowed by not under emergency orders. Less reported is the fertiliser shortage and knock on effect, poor yields this year and the effect of El Nino on next years, sulphur export bans and the blockade on Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports which are particularly crucial in feeding North Africa and the Middle East. This is liable to have significant impact on the UK with 6% rises in food already expected next year (and there's every reason to believe this will be higher especially with civil unrest all over the place). Reports of aviation fuel running low in some parts of Europe with emergency supplies (which can't last forever) being used.
El Nino:
See above about farming and also think of disasters - like the ones Spain is facing with flooding. Storm Austin is incoming and there is a weather warning for the South of England with power outages and flooding possible today/tomorrow.
The Internet:
PHP is 70% of the internet. Its got compromised so it can pretty much all be hacked. This is VERY BAD (in capital letters). Many websites offline whilst this is sorted including multiple government ones around the world.
Just AI generally - everything from putting everyone out of work to just hacking and killing us all. No Biggie.
Trump and the Mid Terms:
Trump is firmly losing his marbles. He's defected to Russia, can't stop rambling about men's arses, is waving at non-existent people, his team are known to be considering ways to impose martial law, he's getting heckled at Trump rallies by his own supporters, 83% of all voters think the biggest problem in the US now isn't the cost of living crisis but government corruption. He's being called a traitor by some of his fellow Reds. Mid Terms look a disaster and Trump probably won't accept them. He's reversing bills that Congress passed weeks ago by executive order.
Mid-Terms: 3rd Nov
Ukraine and Russia:
Ukraine facing massive problems still cos Elon has got the ump. Starlink isn't working at face enough speeds. They've bombed a shedload of Data Centres in Russia. This has killed off the Russian Internet and many Trump/Musk supporters in the process (one way or another) which screws up Twitter (and its value) for them. Ukraine is getting blamed for diesel shortages cos they refuse to stop hitting Russian refineries even though it has no choice now its been cut off by the US. Zelenskyy now says Trump isn't an ally. Trump wants Zelensky gone and thinks Putin is being reasonable and Ukraine doesn't want peace. Germany states it would have activated Art5 if the confirmed Russian sabotage attack on Liepzig had been successful.
Russia is apparently planning to step up its sabotage campaign in Europe after having successfully sunk a few boats in EU waters (Romania / Bulgaria - these sinkings have been in both international waters off the coast AND within their official territorial waters).
Economy:
Lots of debt. Much concern over the implications of this particularly with regards to AI and state debt in the US, UK, France and Japan (but not restricted to). Much money put into gold by China. Background of this bad given the approach of potentially multiple crisis.
France Moody's credit review: Due tomorrow 23rd Oct - expected to be not good especially in the current political climate in France
UK Budget: 28th October

They are all interconnected and one or many could tip us into abject chaos. Or not. The risks here are sky high. Of what? Take your pick.

Some of them are nuts though!

That's what I thought. It's a truly horrid thing to think of.

Our previous and current house are both considered a low flood risk. However, during the 2007 floods we had water up to and running past our doorstep into the river that had formed in the road/end of front gardens. Luckily rain had reduced but ifvit hadn't, who knows. I know the water was running down the road where we currently live. Both are obviously on a gradient without us realising.

@SnowflakesandSlippers I do find the idea that some well prepped folks will be browsing their well stocked pantry & debating what they should have for supper before retiring to play games whilst outside their home is utter carnage slightly odd!

At some point I think money will start to go missing from bank accounts

This would cause humongous panic!

Don't ask sensible questions!

The government is made up of career politicians who have zero experience of anything practical in life nor making sensible decision.

You are expecting way too much here.

We have been stockpiling for a few months now, shelf stable foods, cleaning/ hygiene products, batteries, torches and candles, and also medication. We've even covered how we would cook and heat our home, if the power went out. When we did this before Covid hit every one thought we were crazy, but we were all done, by the time everyone was panic buying.

What made you tell people about it?

How are people stockpiling prescription medication?

I guess this is why the message has been drip fed. The more people who have been able to build up some resilience, the less people with be out there rioting and looting.

They first have to gain access to your house, so be prepared on that front as well, make sure you have good locks on all doors and windows. If they can't easily get in they'll just go to the next house. If the unthinkable happens and they do get in then if you can have some of your supplies hidden where it's far harder to find them (e.g. suitcases). Always have some on shelves so they'll take that but you'll still have something left. Goods are heavy to carry, I can't see them carting round a load.

Well, that's the area where there are limitations.
You can only do what you can, such as making sure you order your repeat prescriptions in good time, or even a few days early.

You sound critical, is that your intention? People here are just doing their best. Personally, i have made sure we have a stock of OTC medication, and my gp just authorised a prescription request that i put in a few days early. Talking about it on here doesn't mean we have it all covered. To my mind, it's just keeping up with what's going on in the world and sharing a few ideas. It's better than doing nothing and just hoping for the best. The people who do that will be the ones shouting about panic buying if the supply chains are disrupted for any reason.

People please calm down your scaring yourselfs and allow others to scare you.

Just get on with your lifes as we all do and have been doing ffs.

Britain has struck a last-minute deal for extra gas pipeline capacity from Belgium in order to secure this winter’s supplies, illustrating the growing pressure on its energy system.

National Gas, which owns and runs Britain’s gas pipeline network, agreed with the owners of the Interconnector gas pipeline to reverse immediately planned capacity cuts.

Britain’s energy regulator, Ofgem, said the country could otherwise have faced “a negative supply margin” — where energy supply does not meet demand — on a very cold day when key infrastructure was not operational.

The UK is a shambles. Genuinely sad to see.

Energy and food independence, secure borders and sound monetary & fiscal policy should be the absolute minimum we accept.

Tbf it sounds like the only one here that needs to calm down is you. Noone is stopping you to get on with YOUR life.
It’s yours after all.

Ideal time to make Parkin, warms the soul and teaches patience as it needs a good week to mature.

I think on this thread we are keeping up with the news and thinking about a measured response to the threats we face atm.

I deeply appreciate every thread and post @RedToothBrush but I am reading tonight and have a big knot in my stomach! I had plans for a lazy day tomorrow before the kids break up for half term. But since I've come across this thread I've decided I'm going to do a massive food shop instead and prep my prep so to speak...garrr! What a mess.

I told my surgery I was away for work a lot over the next month and they gave me an extra prescription. I’m on medication for life so I don’t think it’s that big a deal as I will always need/take it. And start putting in requests 6 days early to build a buffer.

once that starts to happen your are further along than prepping and are on to defending. Because that means all hell has broken out onthe streets and people are looting homes. Thats an even worse situation but again some of us are rather prepared for that also.

@YourTealFinchI don’t think a lot of the elderly particularly if they get it delivered will be able to do that.

@Holeymoley28So how are you prepared for it? What does that look like in practice? How much interaction with criminals have you already have for example?

For years now because I’m like that I’ve randomly lost a strip or going on holiday so I need to order early.

Things I can also get legitimately from online pharmacy and tick don’t tell my gp I do as well.

Other times certain items the gp has not flagged an auto renew every month when it shouldn’t be required for a few months so build a stock that way.

@NoisyStreethow on earth do I sound critical asking about prescriptions? I am curious! I had a right palaver trying to order earlier for my father due to a long holiday.

Why do you think I have done nothing? I have followed the gov advice & have 3 days of dry goods & water. Just need my radio