Crisis What Crisis? The One You Start To Wish You'd Stockpiled Like Your Crazy Friend? Continuation thread (3)

[RedToothBrush]

Previous threads
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5585259-crisis-what-crisis-is-my-friend-over-doing-the-stockpiling-and-am-i-too-continuation-thread-2?page=1

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.
This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

ROUGH STATUS REPORT (as of 9am 22nd Oct - please note this isn't fully comprehensive, and is moving FAST)
Civil Unrest reported in:
France, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Albania, Indonesia - multi reasons, but largely due to economic pressures and the cost of living
Spain has had problems but these have temporarily stopped, probably due to significant weather related issues due to the Dana effect
More protests planned for this coming weekend
High Alert in the Middle East:
Netanyahu now committed to regime change in Iran, as he believes they are developing a nuke.
The US has pulled all Embassy Staff from Saudi Arabia and is hoping no one notices that they've ordered personal and families across the Gulf home and then seem to have lied that they have.
The Emir of Qatar has stated at their equivalent of the annual King's Speech at the Opening of Parliament that war was coming and to prepare for the worst scenarios. US pulling planes out of Qatar.
The Egyptian PM has warned the country of severe crisis ahead - given the nature of the country this is related to their alliance with Saudi Arabia and their reliance on the Suez Canal which the Yemeni rebels now control access to and their exposure to famine
Iran is saying if there is another attack, the gloves are off and they'll try and wipe out the middle east oil industry as they go down, as well as hitting critical civilian infrastructure.
Much movement / noise is similar to run up to the first US attacks this year. Debate over whether the attack will come before the Israeli Election or the US Midterms - possibly within 72hours - latest mood music suggests potentially this weekend. Seems to be shifting to a when not if.
Israel election: 27th Oct
Prices and Shortages:
Diesel needs no real reminder - we need it for haulage, mass transportation and farming, we are screwed without it. Fuel Emergency declarations in West Virgina, Kentucky, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Nebraska and Texas - typically allowing limited dyed diesel use for ag or commercial vehicles. Illinois and Missouri have also allowed by not under emergency orders. Less reported is the fertiliser shortage and knock on effect, poor yields this year and the effect of El Nino on next years, sulphur export bans and the blockade on Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports which are particularly crucial in feeding North Africa and the Middle East. This is liable to have significant impact on the UK with 6% rises in food already expected next year (and there's every reason to believe this will be higher especially with civil unrest all over the place). Reports of aviation fuel running low in some parts of Europe with emergency supplies (which can't last forever) being used.
El Nino:
See above about farming and also think of disasters - like the ones Spain is facing with flooding. Storm Austin is incoming and there is a weather warning for the South of England with power outages and flooding possible today/tomorrow.
The Internet:
PHP is 70% of the internet. Its got compromised so it can pretty much all be hacked. This is VERY BAD (in capital letters). Many websites offline whilst this is sorted including multiple government ones around the world.
Just AI generally - everything from putting everyone out of work to just hacking and killing us all. No Biggie.
Trump and the Mid Terms:
Trump is firmly losing his marbles. He's defected to Russia, can't stop rambling about men's arses, is waving at non-existent people, his team are known to be considering ways to impose martial law, he's getting heckled at Trump rallies by his own supporters, 83% of all voters think the biggest problem in the US now isn't the cost of living crisis but government corruption. He's being called a traitor by some of his fellow Reds. Mid Terms look a disaster and Trump probably won't accept them. He's reversing bills that Congress passed weeks ago by executive order.
Mid-Terms: 3rd Nov
Ukraine and Russia:
Ukraine facing massive problems still cos Elon has got the ump. Starlink isn't working at face enough speeds. They've bombed a shedload of Data Centres in Russia. This has killed off the Russian Internet and many Trump/Musk supporters in the process (one way or another) which screws up Twitter (and its value) for them. Ukraine is getting blamed for diesel shortages cos they refuse to stop hitting Russian refineries even though it has no choice now its been cut off by the US. Zelenskyy now says Trump isn't an ally. Trump wants Zelensky gone and thinks Putin is being reasonable and Ukraine doesn't want peace. Germany states it would have activated Art5 if the confirmed Russian sabotage attack on Liepzig had been successful.
Russia is apparently planning to step up its sabotage campaign in Europe after having successfully sunk a few boats in EU waters (Romania / Bulgaria - these sinkings have been in both international waters off the coast AND within their official territorial waters).
Economy:
Lots of debt. Much concern over the implications of this particularly with regards to AI and state debt in the US, UK, France and Japan (but not restricted to). Much money put into gold by China. Background of this bad given the approach of potentially multiple crisis.
France Moody's credit review: Due tomorrow 23rd Oct - expected to be not good especially in the current political climate in France
UK Budget: 28th October

They are all interconnected and one or many could tip us into abject chaos. Or not. The risks here are sky high. Of what? Take your pick.

@Holeymoley28there must be some big differences between GPs because most I have experienced refuse ordering too early & are also a bit funny in you lose them, my dad went through a period of losing his.

We have our own shooting range and all the children are trained hobby wise in shooting, archery, cross bow, sling shot, throwing knifes and axes.

They also know how to fish and hunt. Including gutting, scaling and hopper poppering.

We are country folk 😉

I did work at a youth offending which is where most of the active looters are going to come from the young sent out by their adults to fetch for them.

@threetrainers I think its best to focus on that which you can do than that which you can't.
I only have so much asthma medication. I don't have a bunker or an armoury either.
But if the atms are down its good to have a bit of cash, and if there's a power cut its good to have a headtorch.
Much more drawn out or severe scenarios would be beyond the scope of what many of us are able to prepare for.

Yes my old gp used to very much be oh I hope your dogs ok when I said they ate some. My new one will ring up and be like hey is everything ok and ill give a yeah I went away and seem to of lost a strip and that fixes them but some are likely stricter.

Apparently 8 mill people take at least 5 or more medications a day, surely if they all started trying to build a stockpile there would be issues? And as a said I don’t think a lot of the elderly would be able to which would concern me.

Unfortunately the elderly if shit hit the fan would likely be the first to perish as well as those needing lots of life saving meds.

But fingers crossed that’s not what’s needed.

@Holeymoley28do you get them free or do you have to pay again to replace the “lost” ones?

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which scares me!

I pay for my prescriptions so I pay to replace.

I suppose if you have a certificate it’s capped anyway so it wouldn’t necessarily be an additional cost for all.

I get that. If the government really are telling us to stock up I think they should be relaxing rules so everyone has a month in hand. I mean that would require departments to coordinate and talk to each other though….

@Holeymoley28I can shoot & did archery as a dc/teen but i’m not sure how good I would be in hand to hand combat or against a gang! Never hunted, I’m a city girl 😆😆

I do know a few dodgy people from growing up in a then very dodgy part of London, Im hoping they will leave me alone 😆

@YourTealFinchyes that would make sense to me because some of those medications are more important then dry goods & a lack of them will likely cause more panic.

I think the thing is im not entirely certain what exactly we are being asked to prep for. It seems like everything at once.

Covid I prepped about a week earlier than everyone else, tbh we didn't use much from our horde and the things we did need, well it was may more important to be quickly responsive.

Flour and loo rolls, never thought h would be the thing id need most.

Tbh if its three days supply disruption, beans, spaghetti hoops and power banks would seem to be the thing

Thank you for the new thread @RedToothBrush

I've learnt a lot from these threads and the links that have been shared. Thank you to everyone.
I have a question. Does anyone have a recommendation for a book of basic survival skills and wisdom. If the Internet goes down I'll not be able to Google how much domestos should I add to waterbutt water to make it ok to drink. Or 101 ways to eat a squirrel?

Or is there a planner/reference book combo which includes pages for writing down your important phone numbers, emergency plan, and space for you to do an inventory etc?

I think some looters will also pretend to be legit visitors, e.g. 'I've come to check your gas supply...' and they'll even have an ID of some kind but it'll be fake, you won't be able to call anyone to check, and if you believe them and open your door, well that's easy access isn't it, they trick their way into your home, then they can take your supplies.

If it got that bad best to tuck food all over I think worst case is people not leaving the home and taking it over full stop.

Well I'm going to be having nightmares tonight. 😟

It’s on BBC news at 10 now so I expect the panic buying will start soon enough. They seem to be implying that we need to prepare for a severe power outage and that the power could be out for several days and would include limited access to fuel & water. I suppose this apparent new urgency must be based on something, but I’ve no idea what…

The Government is suggesting 3 days supply being prepped, people who live rurally will probably have three weeks because if you have ever been snowed in...it will be etched into your brain.

A sensible buffer is prudent. Imagining the total destruction of society is a bit bonkers and hugely influenced by Hollywood. Did Ukraine go feral and start murdering their neighbours? No.

I’m on top of a hill and would just be cut off rather than flooded.

BUT, during the Boxing Day floods, my elderly relatives in Rochdale had an issue. They lived about a mile from the centre of town and weren’t directly flooded, but their nearest electricity substation was under water and they had no power for several days. It’s worth us all staying prepared, to whatever extent we can.

I already have thirty litres of bottled water and 110 tins of food stock piled in my garage, together with a few bags of dried dog food (for my darling pooch of course), a box of candles with matches and £500 in cash under the mattress! I’ve been doing this since the start of the Ukraine invasion by Russia, when there was a lot of talk about a cyber attack. Just been picking the odd bottle and tin up now and again, and it’s built up from there. Although I honestly think if it came down to it, there would just be absolute anarchy and a huge breakdown of law and order, so I would predict lots of looting of shops and peoples’ homes.