Crisis What Crisis? The One You Start To Wish You'd Stockpiled Like Your Crazy Friend? Continuation thread (3)

[RedToothBrush]

Previous threads
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5585259-crisis-what-crisis-is-my-friend-over-doing-the-stockpiling-and-am-i-too-continuation-thread-2?page=1

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.
This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

ROUGH STATUS REPORT (as of 9am 22nd Oct - please note this isn't fully comprehensive, and is moving FAST)
Civil Unrest reported in:
France, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Albania, Indonesia - multi reasons, but largely due to economic pressures and the cost of living
Spain has had problems but these have temporarily stopped, probably due to significant weather related issues due to the Dana effect
More protests planned for this coming weekend
High Alert in the Middle East:
Netanyahu now committed to regime change in Iran, as he believes they are developing a nuke.
The US has pulled all Embassy Staff from Saudi Arabia and is hoping no one notices that they've ordered personal and families across the Gulf home and then seem to have lied that they have.
The Emir of Qatar has stated at their equivalent of the annual King's Speech at the Opening of Parliament that war was coming and to prepare for the worst scenarios. US pulling planes out of Qatar.
The Egyptian PM has warned the country of severe crisis ahead - given the nature of the country this is related to their alliance with Saudi Arabia and their reliance on the Suez Canal which the Yemeni rebels now control access to and their exposure to famine
Iran is saying if there is another attack, the gloves are off and they'll try and wipe out the middle east oil industry as they go down, as well as hitting critical civilian infrastructure.
Much movement / noise is similar to run up to the first US attacks this year. Debate over whether the attack will come before the Israeli Election or the US Midterms - possibly within 72hours - latest mood music suggests potentially this weekend. Seems to be shifting to a when not if.
Israel election: 27th Oct
Prices and Shortages:
Diesel needs no real reminder - we need it for haulage, mass transportation and farming, we are screwed without it. Fuel Emergency declarations in West Virgina, Kentucky, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Nebraska and Texas - typically allowing limited dyed diesel use for ag or commercial vehicles. Illinois and Missouri have also allowed by not under emergency orders. Less reported is the fertiliser shortage and knock on effect, poor yields this year and the effect of El Nino on next years, sulphur export bans and the blockade on Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports which are particularly crucial in feeding North Africa and the Middle East. This is liable to have significant impact on the UK with 6% rises in food already expected next year (and there's every reason to believe this will be higher especially with civil unrest all over the place). Reports of aviation fuel running low in some parts of Europe with emergency supplies (which can't last forever) being used.
El Nino:
See above about farming and also think of disasters - like the ones Spain is facing with flooding. Storm Austin is incoming and there is a weather warning for the South of England with power outages and flooding possible today/tomorrow.
The Internet:
PHP is 70% of the internet. Its got compromised so it can pretty much all be hacked. This is VERY BAD (in capital letters). Many websites offline whilst this is sorted including multiple government ones around the world.
Just AI generally - everything from putting everyone out of work to just hacking and killing us all. No Biggie.
Trump and the Mid Terms:
Trump is firmly losing his marbles. He's defected to Russia, can't stop rambling about men's arses, is waving at non-existent people, his team are known to be considering ways to impose martial law, he's getting heckled at Trump rallies by his own supporters, 83% of all voters think the biggest problem in the US now isn't the cost of living crisis but government corruption. He's being called a traitor by some of his fellow Reds. Mid Terms look a disaster and Trump probably won't accept them. He's reversing bills that Congress passed weeks ago by executive order.
Mid-Terms: 3rd Nov
Ukraine and Russia:
Ukraine facing massive problems still cos Elon has got the ump. Starlink isn't working at face enough speeds. They've bombed a shedload of Data Centres in Russia. This has killed off the Russian Internet and many Trump/Musk supporters in the process (one way or another) which screws up Twitter (and its value) for them. Ukraine is getting blamed for diesel shortages cos they refuse to stop hitting Russian refineries even though it has no choice now its been cut off by the US. Zelenskyy now says Trump isn't an ally. Trump wants Zelensky gone and thinks Putin is being reasonable and Ukraine doesn't want peace. Germany states it would have activated Art5 if the confirmed Russian sabotage attack on Liepzig had been successful.
Russia is apparently planning to step up its sabotage campaign in Europe after having successfully sunk a few boats in EU waters (Romania / Bulgaria - these sinkings have been in both international waters off the coast AND within their official territorial waters).
Economy:
Lots of debt. Much concern over the implications of this particularly with regards to AI and state debt in the US, UK, France and Japan (but not restricted to). Much money put into gold by China. Background of this bad given the approach of potentially multiple crisis.
France Moody's credit review: Due tomorrow 23rd Oct - expected to be not good especially in the current political climate in France
UK Budget: 28th October

They are all interconnected and one or many could tip us into abject chaos. Or not. The risks here are sky high. Of what? Take your pick.

@FindingMeno I totally agree but you can't reason with some people!
I live in hope that nothing will happen, but if it does I'd rather be somewhat ready so that we can look after ourselves for a while

I’m in the a few tins, water and forget about it mode.

A full on breakdown isn’t something I’m going to prepare for, spending an extra £10 fine, and it’s done.

Water and sanitation - scripts for broadcast media - GOV.UK https://share.google/CHy86g7Y2R9waD716

I had no idea the sewage system would work until today. We live to close to a sewer plant. But also that means we are close to a river. Just make sure you fill your bottles up stream of it. I guess we need to add Nappy sacks for the poop and coffee filters? Seems like a small cost. We dont have a clean bucket so I think maybe we need to buy some.

*People on MN broadly fall into three camps on this.

People who expect a storm / short term issues.

People are building bunkers for WW3 and have been since pre covid.

People who are angry that its not going to be done for them and everything is a distraction by the gov to hide a bigger picture ( which includes anything the gov has zero control over like Trump, the weather or say earthquakes).

I think its safe to find a middle line.*

My middle line is I like to camp in a variety of ways from campervan to single person hiking tent with backpack and several ways inbetween so already have lots of stuff and an ability to, with some preparation be self sufficient for a week.

We've not since the miners strikes experienced anything more difficult than a few hours without power or a day without internet, with options to get in the car and go and find those facilities when it has happened. We don't live in an area that floods and we weathered any COVID stockpiling shortages

3 days of power outages could be handled easily.

I'm really glad that the importance of cash is being recognised in all of this and I hope this will form part of the contingency plan of any shops.

BUT I think there is mixed messaging, ranging from Angela Raynor stocking up on wine, Andy Burnham saying we need a clear head so no wine please (what for?.... Sitting around in candle light playing cards?), other ministers saying they have plenty of coffee in and when pressed were unable to say they'd bought some soup as well, so clearly hasn't been briefed to take it seriously. The defense minister launching the campaign when it might have been received better from another minister. Everything for years has been about being eco friendly but suddenly we're buying up plastic bottles of water by the dozen and contemplating getting log burners fitted in one homes. It is going to feel like whiplash for some.

What I am taking from this is make your own preparations that make sense and don't be swayed if it will make you feel more prepared. Get that log burner if it feels important because one minute they'll be talking about banning them and the next we're being told to ensure we can be self sufficient for 3 days. One minutes we're cutting down on plastic and the next, it's a good idea to have 9 litres of water each.

https://www.wremo.nz/get-ready/home-ready/emergency-toilets

Easy to make with a simple bucket - you don’t need to purchase an expensive contraption.
Also, you can dig a hole in the garden worst case but it really has to be deep enough and following guidelines clearly or it is a health hazard.

All of this should really be basic common sense and everyone needs to know not to flush toilets! I think sealing the toilets shut with tape if you have young children (they might forget) is really important too.

Also knowing how to purify rain butt water with simple household bleach etc. It really should be common knowledge for all.

So personally I would be educating the population on basics not telling them to buy expensive Chinese made PREP kits unnecessarily.

I read somewhere not to use river water if at all possible, if you can't get bottled or run out of it. Streams are likely OK, you've got to filter the water though and treat it but rivers are pretty full of unpleasant things.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/villa-vie-residences-suspends-operations-in-cambodia-as-it-pursues-restructuring-and-recapitalization-302920622.html

The 'neverending cruise which some people sold their house and spend their life savings on is kaput.

Villa Vie Residences today announced that it has suspended operations in Cambodia as the company works to address extraordinary increases in fuel costs and evaluate restructuring and recapitalization alternatives.

Fuel costs have risen sharply in the regions where the company has been operating. On an equivalent per-cabin basis, monthly fuel expense that historically averaged approximately $1,800 has recently reached an estimated $6,000 to $8,000 in parts of Asia. The company cannot simply pass increases of that scale on to residents, and the resulting shortfall has placed its current operating model under unsustainable financial pressure.

The company is working with residents to coordinate disembarkation and identify temporary living arrangements. Villa Vie Residences recognizes that this is a difficult and disruptive period for residents, crew members, and employees, and is working to support those affected as plans develop.

"Since the conflict began in late February, we have taken significant steps to reduce fuel consumption, including slowing the itinerary and spending more time in port. Those measures have not been enough to offset the extraordinary increase in fuel costs, and we have been unable to continue carrying the resulting operating losses. Passing the full increase on to residents is not a realistic solution. Our focus now is on supporting residents, crew, and employees while we work toward restructuring and recapitalization over the next 60 days. That work is ongoing, and no outcome is assured."

What this story is about in terms of who it's affected is less of a point than how this is reflective of an entire industry.

This is likely to be one of the first amongst many in the tourism industry. And these costs are unavoidable - this is a warning sign that a cataclysm in the tourism industry is just over the horizon, and there will be many more casualties.

I luckily live a couple minutes walk from a clean freshwater lake and a 5 minute drive (walkable if necessary, might have to nick the milk cart from work for carrying the water!)from a natural spring - so if no water for a while I can swim in the lake to get clean and drink spring water

I’ve added thin bleach to my shopping we normally have thick but a bottle stashed away won’t hurt. We have tabs anyway for water but just incase.

Also since we home brew and ferment sauces we always have sterilising solution that works with cold water but I’ll pop another Milton in the trolly when I next go for hygiene purposes.

Im very naughty I don’t actually have a radio out last one died a horrid death and I’ve never replaced it. I guess I’ll put that on my birthday list 😂

The villa Vie thing was never going to work.
Feel sorry for anyone who really did sell their house

@FedUpCelery mixed messaging quite ! Couldn't be more mixed our top two ministers seem positively horizontal about it all.

@bellinisurge @FindingMeno I'm not at all

After all these are precautions...
I got my camping stove the moment Ukraine kicked off and joined FB groups where people were living in the dark with head torches feeding children lettuce.

I never had to use it but I did also buy heavy thermal winter curtains which came in useful in winter and summer.

If the shit does hit the fan you will be hunkered up safe at home whilst they are in long queues waiting for stuff probably rationed and or desperatly searching for stuff...ce la vie

I think if anything ramps up there's going to be a lot of people who are going to have the shock of their lives.
And I can't say I feel in the slightest bit sympathetic if they've had the opportunity to do something, but won't.
I know that makes me a bit hard, but so be it.

I raised the three day prep with my Mum the other day, to be told they're just scare mongering, it's not necessary.

Let her have her say, and then re-worded it, if we have bad weather it's hard to get to you (only roads in are on a steep slopes and she's basically in a basin that retains water if rain heavy (never flooded though). She then agreed to me getting a few things.

Phoned her earlier to find she's wants marmite and soup added, and she's managed to bring two packs of four toilet rolls back on bus😂

I’ve dug out the battery camping radio. It’s fm. So technically I’m good. But I’ll still order a solar one.

My parents seem to think of shtf they are coming to me 🤨