I fear that this weekend could be the calm before the storm.
I understand that both Iran and the US will have a maximalist starting point for negotiations, but without a win-win attitude and a genuine will to bring the war to an end, it will be a stalemate. Then Trump will go in with his hypersonic missiles, Iran will respond, their allies the Houtis will expand the war to the Red Sea, so bye, bye, GCC exporting via the Saudi East-West pipeline.
I am being too pessimistic or just realistic?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/f5aac828fa1bf271
The latest deal submitted by Tehran to Donald Trump via mediators in Pakistan would leave the issue of its nuclear capabilities unresolved until after agreement has been met on other issues.
The proposal arrived as oil analysts warned that a “tipping point” in global crude oil reserves would be hit by the end of May, threatening to send prices soaring in the summer.
The 14-point plan would require both sides to lift their blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, completely end the war in Lebanon, and release Iran’s frozen assets. It would also require the US to pay compensation and lift sanctions against Tehran.
Iran has proposed a deadline of a month for the two sides to reach an agreement on a permanent end to the war. Only in a second stage would the two sides discuss the country’s nuclear programme.
On Sunday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps warned Mr Trump that he faced a choice between an “impossible” continuation of the conflict or a “bad deal”.
A statement carried by state TV said the US’s choices to end the war had “narrowed”, citing what it described as a “shift in tone” from China, Russia and Europe towards Washington.
It also said Iran had imposed a “deadline” for the US lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, without elaborating.
Oil analysts have warned that stocks of crude oil, diesel and jet fuel will hit critically low levels by the end of May and completely run out by the end of June, potentially throwing the world into a recession.
Arms deals fast-tracked
The US state department has fast-tracked arms deals to the Middle East, bypassing Congressional approval, as the countries that bore the brunt of Iranian ballistic missile attacks during the five-week conflict seek to replenish air-defence systems.
Qatar is the biggest purchaser, spending $5bn on weaponry, while Kuwait has ordered weapons valued at $2.5bn, with total sales to the region accumulating to over €8bn.
Meanwhile, fighting continues in southern Lebanon, where Israel ordered the evacuation of 11 settlements, telling residents to leave their homes and move at least a kilometre from the area.
The Israeli military said it would be conducting operations against Hezbollah. It has continued hitting the Iran-backed militia, with 13 people reported killed in the latest strikes.
Hezbollah has also kept up its attacks on northern Israel.
In a further disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East, an oil tanker has been hijacked off the coast of Yemen. The country’s coast guard said unidentified armed men captured the vessel, seized control and steered it toward the Gulf of Aden in the direction of Somali waters.