There’s an anonymous Labour voice being quoted quite widely in the media setting the trigger level for Labour panic at losses of 1,500+ council seats. I think that’s rubbish. Labour MPs will shit themselves and move against Starmer at losses of 1,000 or more, together with failure in Scotland and the loss of Wales.
Since pretty clearly Labour will go down in Scotland and Wales…If in England losses are 1,000 he’ll get into a messy fight and will be out in months. If losses hit 1,500 he’s out in days. If they lose 1,800 it’s “taxi for Mr Starmer!” on the night.
I almost hope he does just well enough to cling on for a protracted civil war in Labour.