Schrödinger's Strait - Trump Thread #162A

[Spandauer]

The Strait of Schrödinger remains open and closed, safe and dangerous, insurable and uninsurable, blockaded and free.

"You put your tanker in, you put your tanker out
In, out, in, out, you sail it all about
You do the Straits of Hormuz and you turn around
That’s what it’s all about!"

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

Got overwhelmed by the 🍊💩's idiot fuckery last time and missed out thread #161 so have designated this one as fake #162...A

Trump’s Final Term Ends in: - Countdown Timer
Thanks for link @CaveMum

Previous thread:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5516057-he-has-no-deal-he-has-no-dice-trump-thread-162

Standout line from that article:

" For example, a prosecutor at the International Criminal Court in The Hague was cut off from his Microsoft email account by President Donald Trump. The ICC is now also switching to non-American systems."

Where to even begin with this?

Where I am, MS is the only non local email that works without a VPN. Even then, you can't actually set one up now. Need to ask someone outside to do it for you. I am sure American politicians would consider that as grounds for invasion: weaponization of the web and all that. And yet here we are.

I so wish that I could draw! Someone in the New York Times, talking about European right-wing leaders now distancing themselves from Trump all of a sudden, used the phrase "Trump as albatross", and I would love to have the picture.

For reference. Att TRUTH.

In your dreams, Donny. 😂

I am starting to wonder who is leading the USA.

This from CNN:

"The US Defense Department announced today that it boarded a “sanctioned stateless vessel” in the Indian Ocean overnight.
The vessel, M/T Majestic X, was carrying oil from Iran, the department said in a post on X.
“We will continue global maritime enforcement to disrupt illicit networks and interdict vessels providing material support to Iran, wherever they operate,” the post said.
Earlier this week, the US Defense Department boarded another stateless vessel, M/T Tifani, which had been sanctioned for transporting Iranian oil.
The Pentagon has previously said that international waters are not a “refuge for sanctioned vessels.” As CNN has reported, analysts say the open ocean is a safer place for the US Navy to make interdictions."

I left a link in that clip, because it does indeed appear that the interdictions are well beyond the SoH, as many posters on here predicted.

The big problem the world now has, is that slow ships and big oceans go beyond the 2 week attention span of His Turdiness.

Watching BBC News, the flags at the White House are flying at half-mast...is he dead?🙏🏻

Never mind Trump with his 2 week attention span.
I'm so bored with the fucker reigniting shit every 2 week with bollocks.

Fuck my life it's like groundhog day just with bombs and starvation that sits directly with Trump. He needs to be held accountable for every death, either directly or indirectly attributed to his action- I include USAID and ICE deaths in this along with those caused by his war.
Someone should lay the pairs of shoes out in the White house gardens under his nose.

Maybe they use the flag position as his phone battery indicator these days ?

To a manturd with no conscience they would be terrible shoes rather than symbolic of his terrible actions, unfortunately.

I guess that's a no(t yet) then. 🤷🏻‍♀️

Ted Lasso starts a rally

We're nae that lucky.

North Dakota Governor Kelly Armstrong has directed all government agencies to fly the United States and North Dakota flags at half-mast in honour and remembrance of U.S. Representative David Scott of Georgia who died yesterday. So Trump is very much alive!

Try and read this without singing

Image under review 😁

Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf has resigned from the negotation team following the "intervention from the IRGC."- Israeli Channel 12

Ugh, I can't believe we're either all going to have our holidays abroad cancelled, or be charged a load more thanks to President Ballsack-Face. Such a fucking idiot. This is either going to drag on for many months+ or he'll agree to accept massive fees to cross the Strait (which is honestly a fair enough demand from Iran after all this) and then try to paint it as some fantastic deal for America somehow. 😬

Oh Danny Boy, Danny Boy.

Let's hope he doesn't get up again.

Exactly. I was planning a Nordic winter trip. The way things are going the US and Iran will still be sending each other childish memes while the world goes down the Shitter.

🤬

This is actually frightening news. The US is now behaving like a madman aimed at mutual destruction. What jurisdiction does the US Navy have in international waters? The potential environmental damage of an oil spillage if Iran decided to locate a few armed IRGC on their tankers, does not bear thinking.

Total shit show indeed.

@dapsnotplimsolls I’m fucking dying 🤣

Add to the mix that x-asylum seeker Cao now heads up the Navy. Psychologically he could be wanting to prove his gratitude and demonstrate his alliance with American aims. He and Kegsbreath, drunk on power are a lethal combination who will be only too willing to enact Trump's raging will.

Instead of escalating, this war needs to end, so I predict that the US will start to launch attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure to force an end their resistance. But they won't roll over for the US.

This surprises me as he appeared to be against US proposals. Is the IRGC ready to accept US deal?

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/iran-s-ghalibaf-rejects-us-threat-based-negotiations/ar-AA21lPuN

eta
Recently, Israel's Channel 12, citing US officials, said that US President Donald Trump is not eager to resume the war, but may not have a choice.
Market’s reaction to Ghalibaf headline:

• Sentiment shifted to risk-averse, as US equities turned negative.
• The US Dollar is up 0.26%, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), at 98.85.
• Oil prices are bid, with WTI up more than 4%, on its way towards $97.00 per barrel.
• Gold is extending its losses to 0.70%, aiming towards $4,700.

Latest intelligence from the Cword world. It's as good a predictor as any political analyst.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has resigned from the negotiating team, per Israel’s N12 News. The permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30 market is at 9%, down from 18% yesterday.
Market reaction
Ghalibaf’s resignation shifts the balance toward hardliners in Iran’s diplomacy. The April 30 peace deal market has dropped to 9% YES
Traders are reading the internal shakeup as a barrier to reaching a deal by the deadline.

Longer-dated peace deal contracts also fell. May 31 and June 30 are at 35.5% and 57.5% YES. The May 31 contract dropped from 52% over the past 24 hours. The term structure shows traders expect no near-term catalyst: the biggest gap is between April 30 and May 31, a 26-point jump over 31 days.
The market on Iran surrendering its enriched uranium tells a similar story. Odds of an agreement by April 30 are at 5.9% YES, reflecting skepticism about Iranian concessions during internal turmoil. The June 30 contractsits at 22.5% YES.
Why it matters
Combined 24-hour volume is $423,360 for peace deals and $99,874 for uranium surrender. It takes $28,110 to move the peace deal market 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.
Ghalibaf’s exit suggests internal discord within Iran is deepening, making an agreement less likely in the near term. At 9¢, a YES share on a peace deal pays $1 if resolved, a 11x return. That bet requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent despite the loss of a key negotiator.

People who bet on the gee gees might understand the odds better.