Schrödinger's Strait - Trump Thread #162A

[Spandauer]

The Strait of Schrödinger remains open and closed, safe and dangerous, insurable and uninsurable, blockaded and free.

"You put your tanker in, you put your tanker out
In, out, in, out, you sail it all about
You do the Straits of Hormuz and you turn around
That’s what it’s all about!"

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

Got overwhelmed by the 🍊💩's idiot fuckery last time and missed out thread #161 so have designated this one as fake #162...A

Trump’s Final Term Ends in: - Countdown Timer
Thanks for link @CaveMum

Previous thread:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5516057-he-has-no-deal-he-has-no-dice-trump-thread-162

The Iranians aren’t the nutters. That’s Trump and his illegal warmongering regime.

You have to ask why the men are at the front and not the tennis players, but then they’re women so that explains it.

I can't claim credit for this, unfortunately:

Kash Patel - J Edgar Boozer.

The Iranians have been fairly consistent for 47 years

LOVE it!

Kegsbreath and now Boozer. Almost enough for an AA meeting.

The regime is pure evil. Bombs aren't the answer. I'm not sure what is.

I find it crazy, that a few religious nutters with guns in speedboats can fuck up the entire global economy. Why isn't the US taking them out?

I refer PP to the Vietnam war. Which the USA lost in spite of very superior fire power. Also Afghanistan. Superior fire power only wins the war if prepared to commit very heinous war crimes. Which happen a bit, regardless, tbf.

Iran regime doesn't have to "win" anyway, they only have to survive.

A Guy I ended up following on social media, "Mr Global" (Matt something) : explained that Iran has a mosaic defence strategy. This defence structure is lots of localised militias (small independent armies) only answerable to Ayatollah himself. MrG pointed out that killing the previous Ayatollah meant that each army then does its own thing and nobody is in charge to make a decision to create a cease fire. The USA literally created this chaos presumably bcz actual Iran experts not involved in decision to think a bit of bombing & kiling would easily win this conflict.

@lljkk I find it crazy, that a few religious nutters with guns in speedboats can fuck up the entire global economy.

It's been pointed out several times here that Iran didn't start this war. The entire global economy was going about its business just fine, until Israel and the US for dubious reasons, decided to launch attacks on Iran. The consequences that we are seeing now can be laid firmly at the foot of these two countries.

'Religious nutters' however, made me question whether it is correct to be looking at Iran as a theocracy. The other theoracies don't all look like Iran. The presence of the IRGC indicated that Iran is more than just a theocracy. Then I found this article and decided to share in case others here are interested.

Iran might appear to be a theocracy, and its official ideology is firmly rooted in Shiite Islam, but the Guards constitute the spine of a militarized state. Analysts consider their pervasive military, political and economic clout the main barrier to regime change, or any change, in Iran.

The Guards follow a so-called “mosaic” strategy that emerged from both seeing the rapid collapse of central authority in Iraq during the U.S. invasion in 2003 and the domestic effort to squash the Green Movement, the nationwide antigovernment protests in 2009.

A decentralized command structure was intended to insure that the Guards could maintain domestic control in case the provinces were ever cut off from Tehran, or could overcome any vacuum in the absence of the supreme leader, the ultimate decision maker.

The strategy was further refined last June to strengthen Iran’s defense against an external enemy, analysts said, after Ayatollah Khamenei was a target of a 12-day war waged by Israel and the United States.

“They are acting according to the playbook,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. “The system is functioning without Khamenei.”

While following a central blueprint, regional commanders have autonomy on decisions like when to launch missiles or drones. There are 31 commands, one for each province, with even smaller branches meant to puncture domestic protests in virtually every neighborhood.

The current war, with the leadership in Tehran degraded, “is exactly the type of moment that the mosaic doctrine was meant to respond to,” said Afshon Ostovar, the author of “Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East.”
(nytimes.com)

So who exactly are the US talking to in their ceasefire/peace talks?

I have not seen this Fellows book, but I suspect it has a bit more to this " Mosaic" command structure than this.

My understanding of regionalized command in such a government is that it is for coup prevention. And I suspect if the visiting fellow was asked if that was the case he would say "Yes that too".

Having separate regions of command is far from ideal really. Can be difficult to get it all working in unison, and there is a very real risk of factions developing. But a massive advantage of it is that any individual charismatic general can't get too much power that they pose a coup threat. By having commands A, B, C, D separate, orders for all to do something needs to come from the supreme leader. Commander A can't give orders to army B and so on. This means that if Commander A decides he want's to take over all and do a coup, the supreme leader has B C D to take him on. Because BCD are not loyal to Commander A.

Militaries in democracies don't have this coup problem. So you can have a Canadian Admiral in charge of a mixed NATO force for example. And for war this is a lot better. It's all joined up. He/she can command all. They can order an air force strike and a land raid all with naval support. Very efficient. But in the "anti coup" system, the separate forces can only take orders from the supreme leader. Very difficult to control and coordinate. But it keeps the Supreme leader a lot safer.

That's my take anyway.

I am not sure a theocracy can be called "evil". They believe their God is on their side. That they are doing their Gods work. And incidentally, the US appear to think their God is on their side, and the Israeli's too of course. Confuses me because it's all the same God apparently.

I have no idea. Really difficult to tell I think, because all the players are authoritarian.

I can't see a way out of this stalemate, but I think the break will come from an unexpected angle. The butterfly effect. Something along the lines of the Arab spring perhaps ? A protest in a gulf state leading to the US being kicked out of one perhaps. Then Iran would say " Ok, your ships can pass". That could lead to a cascade, leaving Turd impotent.

This resignation :

US Navy Secretary Phelan ousted as naval blockade of Iran continues | CNN Politics

I am gonna put my foil hat on and say it's about money. All this insider trading. Lets get him out of government so he can handle the money ?

My first thoughts on hearing the news of Phelan was another case of getting rid of dissenters, but on reading that he is a pal of Trump...I don't know what is going on. Why him in particular?
There is so much greed and corruption at top levels in the US, today's foil hat theorists could be tomorrow's prophets.

I think CNN probably has it - rumours elsewhere tie in with their view that are Trump was getting very unhappy that his biggly Golden Fleet was either never going to built or that if they were by the time the first vessel got launched Trump wouldn't be around to see it..

www.csis.org/analysis/golden-fleets-battleship-will-never-sail

It's all getting a bit 1930s Stalin-esque purges.

Trump probably sneaked in include gold paint in the spec?

I need to stop the news consumption now. I feel so angry and helpless. It's affecting my mental health. If I have to see that fat orange fuckers face again I may explode.

I did the same during COVID. No news for me. I see no end to the nightmare in the middle east.

You will find me in the garden.

On the question of who's in charge in Iran. It was noted that previous negotiations had taken place with moderate, smoothtalking 'Foreign Office officials who achieve agreements that are then rejected when they return and place the deal in front of the IRGC.

Since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the late Supreme Leader, was killed on Feb 28, Iran has become a de facto military dictatorship under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

As well as showering his enemies with empty threats, Trump has also allowed them to gain control of a vital strategic asset. Ahmad Vahidi, the IRGC commander and perhaps the regime’s most powerful figure, will believe that Iran’s mastery of the Strait of Hormuz – demonstrated by the attacks on three container ships, of which two were seized, even after Trump extended the ceasefire – gives it the power to face down America.

The outcome will probably be a hardening of Iran’s position if and when any peace talks resume. If he sits opposite Vance again, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian chief negotiator and speaker of parliament, will probably level higher demands for the release of frozen assets and the lifting of sanctions.

The danger is that Ghalibaf and his colleagues will overreach and push America so hard that even Trump feels obliged to restart the war. Iran’s ruthless leaders have often been prone to miscalculating their own strength, and if Trump no longer has the stomach for this fight, the same may not be true of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/60e4c5605418c3eb

It does make it very clear that the US Forces have had an influx of businessmen who have met Trump at a few soirees and been given posts. I guess he sees this as another perk of the job and slots are free to the highest bidder. Again doesn't make their Forces look particularly scary...until you read about the new replacement Cao:
He ran an unsuccessful campaign for the US Senate in Virginia in 2024, endorsed by Trump, against incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine. During a campaign debate, he criticized the military's diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.
^Speaking about Navy recruiting during the debate, Cao said: "What we need is alpha males and alpha females who are going to rip out their own guts, eat them and ask for seconds. Those are the young men and women that are going to win wars," the AP reported. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9ml02g5k7o^

So to me it looks like Trump has let one random civilian play war for megabucks and has started the next guy's "play". Who knows, maybe they get three lives.

https://www.timesnownews.com/world/us/us-news/who-is-hung-cao-the-man-who-replaced-john-phelan-as-acting-navy-secretary-article-154141652

Danger! Danger!

Even trump? Typical DT.

Ha - I had a 3rd date maybe yesterday- when I pointed out I hadn’t heard about it, despite several other texts, he said I could go round he was in the garden! I didn’t, if you’re wondering at all, but this reminded me lol.

That’s a bit flippant - sorry - it’s good to take time out for your own MH - I definitely did when caring for parents as I had no spare mental capacity- I think if you look next week, month, year even you’ll find it all similar - maybe a lot of rollercoaster moments you missed - but nothing that actually changes much.

Recognising what you need is the really good and important thing, not the news. Look after yourself.

This was on the CNN feed earlier:

"For the fifth time this year, the Senate rejected a measure aimed at restricting President Donald Trump’s war powers by requiring congressional approval for any future military action in Iran.
The measure failed to advance, 46 to 51. Democratic Sen. John Fetterman joined Republicans in rejecting it, while GOP Sen. Rand Paul voted with Democrats.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced last week that Democrats are going to force one war powers vote every week for the foreseeable future.
Some Republicans, like Sen. Thom Tillis and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, have indicated they are open to backing a vote on authorizing military force once the conflict hits the 60-day mark, and Senate GOP leadership has not ruled out taking that step after 90 days, if the conflict hasn’t wound down by then.
However, when asked about an authorizing vote on Monday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters, “I don’t see that happening just yet.”"

I think it's worth remembering this stuff as folk go on about regime change. " Look here people of Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, Greenland. See how our democracy works so much better then what you have"

Todays story about money moving away from the US.

https://www.techzine.eu/news/infrastructure/140634/dutch-central-bank-chooses-lidl-for-european-cloud/

Every little helps!