Schrödinger's Strait - Trump Thread #162A

[Spandauer]

The Strait of Schrödinger remains open and closed, safe and dangerous, insurable and uninsurable, blockaded and free.

"You put your tanker in, you put your tanker out
In, out, in, out, you sail it all about
You do the Straits of Hormuz and you turn around
That’s what it’s all about!"

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

Got overwhelmed by the 🍊💩's idiot fuckery last time and missed out thread #161 so have designated this one as fake #162...A

Trump’s Final Term Ends in: - Countdown Timer
Thanks for link @CaveMum

Previous thread:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5516057-he-has-no-deal-he-has-no-dice-trump-thread-162

The tolls Iran charged/ propose charging appears to be $1 per barrel. This comes from a 2 million barrel tanker being charged $2 million, and there was a smaller tanker charged less. What tolls Turd wanted to charge with his "joint venture", no idea. Although he has abandoned that.

Prewar we were about $70 per barrel. Now we are oscillating about $100. If the war ended today and normal service resumed, the toll, if it happens, would be near insignificant.

Iran charging the tolls would be illegal under UNCLOS, because freedom of navigation. However, the punishment for breaking UN law would be sanctions. And given that Iran is already sanctioned to the hilt and beyond ( the beyond being US unilateral sanctions), I don't think there is anything anyone could do.

However, the oil folk are saying that if the war ended today, it would take 2 years to get back to "normal".

Aviation fuel supply is a separate thing really, in a way. I can't get any info about that on my web. So we need the expertise of @notimagain . My understanding is that aviation fuel, esp jet fuel, is actually a pretty coarse thing. It's not as refined as petrol for example. So likes of Europe does not actually produce a lot. It's largely imported, because of economics. It's cheaper to refine it elsewhere and ship it as a finished product, rather than as raw crude ? But even then, it gets more complex because some airports are close to refineries, and in that case it makes economic sense to produce it locally and pipe it. Other airports need to import it, and it is piped from the docks to the airport I think. AND... this all plays a part in airport location too. Planes, especially long haul, use a lot of fuel.

Capitalism at work. Makes my head spin so it does.

The world “has become somewhat of a casino.”

According to Trump. How many casinos did he bankrupt?

From CNN.

"President Donald Trump said Thursday he is concerned about the growing trend of betting on geopolitical events and that the world “has become somewhat of a casino.”
Asked about a US special forces soldier who was arrested for allegedly betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Trump said he was not familiar with the specifics and that he’d look into it.
“That’s like Pete Rose betting on his own team,” the president said referring to the late baseball player who was banned from the major leagues for gambling.
Pressed on whether he is concerned about betting tied to the war with Iran, Trump said it’s a global issue.
“Well I think that the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino,” Trump said, adding that such betting is happening “all over the world, and every place they’re doing these betting things.”
“Now, I think that I’m not happy with it,” he concluded."

And here is the story he was asked about:

US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400,000 on Maduro raid | CNN Politics

As a reminder, this "polymarket" gambling site has Don Jr as an "advisor", and it was Trumps federal regulators who allowed it to do what it does, days after Don Jr joined them. We need a tin foil hat emoji.

Polymarket authorized for U.S. return just days after Donald Trump Jr. joins as adviser - MarketWatch

I've always thought of jet fuel as being like kerosene.

Look at the countries where the med to heavy crude needed to produce it are, and compare that to where the refineries are actually based.

CountryProduction (Thousand Barrels per Day) so they have the refineries.
1 USA 1,471.00

2 South Korea 357.00

3 China 291.00

4 Russian Federation 279.00

5 Japan 224.00

6 India 219.00

7 Singapore 212.00

8 United Arab Emirates 149.00

9 Netherlands141.00

10 UK 124.00

The top medium crude oil producers are the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, but Saudi doesn't refine jet fuel.
The top heavy crude oil producers are Venezuela, Canada, and Mexico, Iran, Iraq, China, and Indonesia, but only China is on the top ten jet fuel production list. GCC countries put together produce more crude than the US but don't generally refine in high numbers.
The countries in bold in the list above don't produce significant amounts of crude.

How is fuel delivered to airports?
Once it has been refined and separated it is then piped directly to huge storage tanks, which are located off-airport.
The fuel still has to get to the airport. From the off-airport storage tanks, it is transported to smaller storage tanks on the airport itself. This can be done in two ways, either through another pipeline or by a series of large trucks.

Delivery and storage are insignificant in terms of the broader picture of getting your hands on the stuff itself.

Just looking at jet fuel supply and price alone can give you an indication of why economies worldwide will shrink as a result of this war. Transportation of both people and goods is a big economic sector.

I've heard the two year recovery period being banded about but think it will take longer for ordinary Joe who's lost his job and coping with rising CoL too.

@logicisall

Jet fuel and Kerosene yes. I only know it from camping stoves. The multifuel stoves that run on jet block a lot apparently, so they have shaker needles.

It's a complex thing for sure. Nowt like Trump makes out. Flying UK to India might be ok. But India to UK not ok.

Remember that Georgia tennis team photo posted earlier, what actually happened is even worse! Trump only shook the hands of the men; the wimmin had to settle for a wave.

https://x.com/MargoMartin47/status/2046708766456902127?s=20

Can't add much to the above comments on jet fuel other than to say that this crisis looks like it could be existential for some airlines...and given the amount of freight carried by both the specialist freight carriers and the airlines there's going to be consequences for the logistics chain.

Thinking idly about ASEAN (a South-East Asian regional org) and wondering if they will have a new energy security policy to supply refining in the region, esp as Vietnam is currently ramping up drilling operations and Thailand's recent exploration programme yielded 3 discoveries.

😄

www.facebook.com/share/r/1B1v6X8Z2x/

Speculation or truth?

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2047567464771600746?s=20

And has anyone seen the latest Lego video? The United States of Israel.

I should add (for the link wary among us) - this is an easy Donald Trump impression you can do at home with a sainsburys carrier bag - courtesy of Harry Hill

I thought Trump promised to end men in women's sport?

But oh whoops, the men are still more important to him than the women.

And now he's giving the Falkland Islands to Argentina.

I do hope Starmer grows a pair and cancels the Royal visit.

Could review. I suppose he will want Gibraltar so he can charge tolls.

Trump could 'review' Britain's Falklands claim as he tries to punish NATO members over Iran war - The Mirror

He's also threatening to kick Spain out of NATO (pretty sure he can't do that) and slagging off Prince Harry.

Who will rid me of this troublesome priest?

Charlie boy needs to have a word.

Who made this lying arsehole king of the world?

Trump can review the Falklands until sheep cows come home, it's nothing to with him.

I get the impression he's had his bluff called over Iran and now doesn't know what to.

He doesn't have the means/ordnance to "win" and the F-15 shoot down scared him fartless because images of downed crew being paraded alive or dead through Tehran would have been catastrophic for his Presidency...

So he stops the air campaign, has the Navy act as police from well outside Iranian waters.....and tries to distract from the above by whinging about NATO.

He is crazily deranged. CIA where are you?

Edited to say I suppose he planted his own idiots there as well😡

The change from airforce to navy had not escaped my attention. I'm waiting for a Tom and Jerry naval chase/boarding from PersiaBoi.

I saw an interesting analogy to this not long after the campaign began to stall...

It's like an episode of Apprentice USA where on being told "you're fired" the contestant doesn't stick to the script, do the decent thing and quietly leave the room, instead he/she walks forward and slams Donald's head into the desktop......

He is bigly upset by Prince Harry now, the King's visit is going to be interesting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx268zxgx1no

Donald Trump has said the Duke of Sussex was "not speaking for the UK" when he called for the US to show "leadership" on Ukraine - comments which came days before King Charles was due to meet the president.
Speaking during a surprise visit to Kyiv, and without mentioning Trump by name, Prince Harry said the US should "show that it can honour its international treaty obligations – not out of charity but out of its enduring role in global security and strategic stability".
Asked about the remarks, Trump said: "Prince Harry? How's he doing? How's his wife? Please give her my regards.
"I know one thing, Prince Harry is not speaking for the UK, that's for sure. I think I am speaking for the UK more than Prince Harry."
The US president added that he appreciates Prince Harry's advice "very much".

Seems to me the orange loon and Harry are birds of a feather; one thinks he can start a war and expect immediate capitulation while the other believes his input will end a war.

https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15760693/Trump-launches-attack-Prince-Harry-Duke-urged-US-honour-obligations-Ukraine-conflict.html

This post from the “I fucking love Australia” substack: ifloz.substack.com/p/the-accidental-unifier-how-a-tangerine?utm_id=97758_v0_s00_e223_tv2_tp2_a1demo0b3k03yw&fbclid=IwY2xjawRYDaRleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFDYm1vZ29ZRHFxMVZ3VzYyc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHsyzwI2SSX5f_vhGAjoVSvi4chltCf22nxefYYTBwUkJkmqXIgl-kFujV7fA_aem_LNhS9YeW7RSFRA-37-7OKg&triedRedirect=true
is quite hopeful, maybe overly optimistic, but it is nice to have something positive to read after the non-stop negativity we are all trying to survive.
My favourite description, one I hadn’t seen before, is: “the canteloupe Caligula”.

The UK is criss crossed with pipelines for a lot of shit.

For what are hopefully obvious reasons the high pressure gas grid runs mainly a long long way from populated areas.

He doesn't have the means/ordnance to "win" and the F-15 shoot down scared him fartless because images of downed crew being paraded alive or dead through Tehran would have been catastrophic for his Presidency...

Not sure why. After all, in Trump land they would be "losers".

Just had a look at that video. It was awkward for everyone. I think he simply could not reach the women to shake their hands. Whose stupid idea was it to place the tennis women on three separate staircases? How was he supposed to shake the hands of people much higher up than himself when there was no room to climb up the stairs?
He did talk to the women. I couldn't make out what he was saying, but he seemed to make them laugh. I am sure he congratulated them. Just another opinion.