Upstartled · Today 09:31
The dwindling party figures makes clear that even their own members can't stomach them now.
It was interesting to read that the plotting for Burnham includes getting him a seat before May in the potential areas of Gorton and Denton and Norwich South.
On the MRP electoral consensus polling Gorton and Denton is predicted to win over reform with current polling, with 24% vote share and reform snapping at the heels at 22.3%. Norwich South is expected to win with a vote share of 25.5% and Greens on...25.4%!
This isn't the sure win that I think they think it is.
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Yeh, there are no 'safe' Labour seats now. As a pp said upthread, maybe Burnham should try London. Unless they think Burnham can cut through the hatred for Labour, and they assume people will vote for him to get rid of Starmer?
Even my constituency is expected to switch to Reform.
OP post
I think what Burnham and his team think that because the combined conservative/Reform vote is around 33% Labour/Green (32%)23%) :55% he will be safe in Denton/Gorton) Gorton is not a 'safe place', though parts of Denton are quite nice, which makes me think Denton should be in the Ashton Under Lyne Seat) Seats should be Representative of the people who live, and 95% of the Reform/Conservative vote will be from Denton residents !
I have said before we need to look at Combined votes between Right/Left blocks in a Seat because, I believe this is likely to be more important than ever at the next General Election !