Labour isn't working - Thread 14

[TheNuthatch]

A chat thread for those who don't like this Labour government.

The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5427475-labour-isnt-working-thread-13?utm_campaign=thread&utm_medium=share

Also why won't they say "Pakistani"? I'd be bloody mad if I was Chinese or Indian and they kept talking about Asian rape gangs. They are just desperate not to upset a sizeable proportion of their voters, it stinks.

Did anyone hear Dan Neidle on Times Radio
I admit I’ve not encountered anything from him before, lucky me, but he sounds like a Labour stooge.

Bad form for not getting someone on who is closer to public sentiment.

The way tax and benefits work in the UK is a tiny, extreme outlier in geography and time.

It does make it particularly galling when Lefties start spouting 'paying their fair share'.

There's good in our Welfare state, but it's a very, very long way from fair (in the opposite direction to what the Lefties mean)!

'Asian' as a demographic is used to obfuscate reality across many measures.

You also see it in statistics about prison population and welfare. In both those meadures, Chinese and Indian groups are under-represented compared to the native population, so conflating those groups with other demographics makes the 'Asian' statistics look not quite as bad as the country one would.

Agreed that there should be pressure to break down by country.

How can we make sensible, fact-based decisions about the UK's best interests when the facts are deliberately obfuscated?

Another day, another poll
Beauford Research has Caerphilly voting intention with a 7% lead for Reform with a forecasted 30% of the vote share. Labour in second with this one at 23% and Plaid on 22%.

Basically the polls are all over the place but it's interesting that there was not one area within the region where Reform wasn't leading.

Oh, and there's more granular data.

Reform lead with both men and women, 32% and 29% respectively.

There was a large support for Reform among the C2DEs - almost 40%.

Yes you're right. Its wrong and unfair when 'Asian' is used. Again, I think it's an attempt the dilute the uncomfortable truth.

@Upstartled thanks for the poll. Interesting
That's totally different to the survation poll I posted yesterday, I think it was dated 16th Oct, but only 500 people.
Interesting also that it's showing also even proportions of men v women for Reform.

C2DEs made me laugh 😂

Yields are tumbling, sadly.

Given sticky inflation, 75% probability for a 25 bps cut in Dec.

He’s definitely on the left side of the debate but I’d argue he’s closer to centre-left than far left. He’s anti wealth tax and argues heavily for stamp duty and council tax reform.

I disagree with some of what he says but think he’s quite sensible on others.

He was pretty non-partisan when discussing tax affairs of politicians, he didn’t stick the knife in Farage and did point out that Churchill had a lot of dodgy tax dealings!

This poll only included the responses of those responders who said they were very likely to vote - identifying themselves as being 9/10 or 10/10 likely to vote - which I thought was interesting. I don't remember the details of the survation poll but I wonder if that's part of it?

They didn't say if the C2DE's self declared or if they just got a Mnetter to look at them 😁

Neidle’s a Labour NEC member I believe, or he used to be. I don’t think there’s any doubt about his party affiliation.

But, as you say, he is a sensible commentator and he’s a tax lawyer who knows his stuff. I’ve always found him worth listening to and I give weight to his forecasts about tax changes.

Survation poll here with flow chart.

Base: All those likely to vote with undecided squeezed, and those still undecided and refused removedUnweighted Total: 322 | Weighted Total: 339

https://www.survation.com/reform-uk-and-plaid-cymru-neck-and-neck-in-caerphilly-senedd-by-election-labour-pushed-into-third/

That was funny 😬

🤣🤣
📡Reform-dar activated📡

Idk then 🤷🏼‍♀️

It's going to jazz things up a bit when the results come in.

Thanks I just looked up his response to NI increase and it was

‘An increase in employer national insurance is a tax increase on working people. It would break Labour's pledge.’

• Budget decision: He has stated that increasing employer NI was one of the worst possible tax increases the government could have implemented.

Some sense there, so I’ll take his views in the round.

Definitely. The polling is so bad when something is coming up in Scotland or Wales. I usually revert to betting odds for an idea of whats going on.

Oh I can't wait for the population of Caerphilly to run Labour out of town. I don't have skin in the game, so good luck to whoever wins, just FABL.
Popcorn button on microwave put on notice for Friday ready for the endless excuses. It was a Thursday, the wind was blowing from the west, I had the wrong colour pants on....yadda yadda yadda.

The whole 14 years schtik isn't going to hold any water here.

The arse falling out of Labour in Wales will be momentous and brilliant, no more than they deserve.

Same
FABL

How do people do that thing that lets them get around a paywall article to an archived link?

Put the original article url in the second box here:

https://archive.is/

(Other archive sites are available).