Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

You financial advisor is a prat, did he really say that about immigrants? (I rather doubt it). I can't see any government removing the state pension, but we do need people to be employed in this country and paying NI and taxes to pay for it and we have a falling number of working people (falling birth rate) and a rising number of retirees, which immigration helps to balance. A state pension isn't guaranteed but I'd like to see any government or political party survive scrapping it. But your financial advisor is right that if you want a good standard of living in retirement you need to get your own ducks in a row too.

It's a strict points system so not at all easy to lie. Plus interviews.

It’s my financial advisors opinion, he said you get 10 years notice when they adjust the age but he thinks means testing will be introduced before I reach 69 which is the new pension age in 2044.

NI isn’t paying into a pot for your future pension, I think that’s what you’re a bit confused about.

A state pension is guaranteed however the age can be raised in order to receive it. Probably 70 for millenniums.

No my financial advisor didn’t mention immigrants. I think that part is obvious.

he said you get 10 years notice when they adjust the age

He doesn’t know what he’s talking about. The Waspi women got nothing like ten years’ notice.

I think Reform would be hard pressed to be more of a ‘disaster’ than Labour.

The DM bots are out in force.

We all agree educating children is a good thing, that’s why we pay taxes to provide free at the point of use education for all. What I don’t think is morally correct is for well off people to buy privilege for their children, so I think taxing that a bit is fine.
I’m sure you do think education will be fine under Reform as your privilege will be entrenched. The state offering will collapse, but I don’t suppose you care about the 93% of children not currently having privilege purchased for them. I take a broader view.

It’s just opinion from when he was at school, it just comes across as desperate.

I literally said in an earlier post that we all know NI pays current pensions. Don’t be so condescending, especially when you haven’t read (or understood?) my posts.
Is that pension age set? I hadn’t seen it confirmed. Isn’t extending retirement age currently under review?

I think they are more than up to the challenge. (Of being much, much more of a disaster than Labour, for clarity. No other challenges. They’d be rubbish at any actually useful ones).

No, it's not obvious. It's your bias talking. Without immigration, the demographics of the UK would be even worse than they already are.

Not really an opinion if they heard him sing Hitler Youth songs, is it?

Opinion based on facts about his actions. Singing Hitler Youth songs, for eg. And his behaviour towards other students.

Ok. You’re either being wilfully blind, ignorant or well I don’t know really. It’s very easy to get PiP.,stupidly so. We’re all mugs as tax payers.

Mugs because so many people take the piss. And mugs because huge corporations and billionaires pay less tax than we do (proportionately speaking).

Have you tried to get PIP?
I haven’t, but I know people who have. It’s not easy. Don’t believe the lies.

Japan has huge troubles atm also

The state offering will collapse if we don’t tax non state education? This doesn’t make any sense.

I have a general rule that once people start saying privilege and you don’t care about insert identity then they’ve got no argument so it’s not really worth continuing. However you didn’t say equality, equity or call me racist so am willing to give you one more chance to put forward a rational argument for taxing children’s education and why you don’t consider it immoral. One more chance !

I’m not ‘believing lies’. I’m understanding evidence before my eyes. Both primary and secondary sources. In addition - just look at the bill, look at the numbers claiming. It doesn’t add up. But I can see I’m flogging a dead horse. You’ll believe what you want / need to believe / Cognitive dissonance and all that.

Opinions based on facts

Yep.

18% of 6th formers are privately educated.

Ok but that's not what culling something means and I think you know that. When farmers cull badgers they aren't asking them nicely to go to another field.

It's not easy to get with mental health disorders. I know someone who has been diagnosed with bipolar disorder as a teenager, now 46, who has never been awarded PIP. They have attempted suicide twice. They can hold down their career, public facing. Albeit with several breaks in working.

Only Labour like VAT on education, so it could be gone by next GE. That and digital ID, no other party likes that either. Both terrible policies.