Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

@Arlanymor yes that must have been what he was talking about. I've got confused.

Farage’s has been banging on saying that immigrants are now eating swans, what worries me is that some people actually believe him.

The only realistic prospect of a general election next year is if infighting in the Labour party leads to the Government failing to get its legislative programme through, ie if enough Labour MPs vote against their own leadership on a contentious issue such as welfare reform to overturn what is a massive Parliamentary majority. That is highly unlikely, partly due to the size of Starmer's majority but also because with Reform riding so high in the polls right now many Labour MPs would lose their seats if an election was called so even if they object to Starmer's policies they have a huge self-interest in propping him up.

2029 is a long way away and a lot can happen between now and then. Labour have the luxury of time on their sides and will be hoping that the current Reform wave fizzles out by then. The May 26 local elections will be interesting though...

Because, and you might want to sit down for this one, not enough people vote for them.

So while people do love to have a moan, when it comes to voting they opt for the least worst option, which for the past 110 years has meant either Labour or the Tories.

Regarding a snap election next year, put yourself in the place of the prime minister - under exactly what circumstances would he call an election? If they are unpopular, they hang on in in the hope of turning things round in time for the next election (in 2029). If they are popular they carry on with their mandate until the next election (in 2029).

Do you know Farage's stance on the NHS, hand guns, fox hunting? Maybe you should stop falling for his bullshit. You are being manipulated. All he wants is power and money. He doesn't give a shit about working people. He also doesn't really give a shit about immigrants but he knows it's a vote winner. It's the oldest trick in the book. Open your eyes. He's a vile, self serving toad.

Immigration is really small potatoes in the scheme for what is needed to improve things for the people of this country. It literally makes very little difference it’s being used by the far right to encourage us to fight amongst ourselves instead of looking critically at how money over the last decades has been distributed towards the very rich of whom farage is one. Think about all the issues housing economy climate change poverty transport rural affairs education health social care.all of these are big beasts of politics all complex and multi faceted and require lots of thought and care to make improvements. Remember also previous governments are massively affected by world events the financial crash of 2007/8 war, disruption by Russia, disruption to energy supplies brexit Covid. Is there even the tiniest chance that reform has any ability to handle all this? Farage can’t even manage to be a good constituency mp.

That makes zero sense. You say Farage speaks sense but if he’s saying something like that it proves he doesn’t. If you’re unpopular calling an election will just cause issues and you could likely lose. Surely resources and time should be spent on improving things so your popularity improves too.

Don’t get me wrong sometimes Farage does make sense sometimes but it’s usually when he’s identifying issues but his solutions either don’t exist or aren’t thought out.

He’s an opportunist. Watch old Question Time clips from before Brexit. He used to always say the UK should be like Norway, however when it came to Brexit and people realised that would be the worse of both worlds he pushed further to an extreme position. He got his Brexit but it hasn’t solved the problems. The NHS isn’t awash with funds.

Replace Senior Civil Servants with political appointees with business experience

Reform policy

So bring in your mates and give mates all the contracts (mind you tories managed just fine during covid ...)

No worries - he’s fairly confused too with all the nonsense he’s been spouting about Port Talbot.

You are just here to stir the pot with your 'innocent questions'.

Try reading Reform's website, for a start.

No chance of a general election next year. That's undemocratic. The second part is while garage has lots of bluster and momentum right now the chinos are starting to show and his lies are catching him out. ... We will see

You think Labour and the Tories don’t want the country to prosper? Don’t be daft, if it prospers, they’re more likely to win elections.

Farage is responsible for Brexit. This has fucked us up economically. How exactly is he going to make us prosperous again? He's a bullshitter. Can't believe after the shitshow of brexit people are falling for it again. Remember the big red bus and the 350 million extra a week for the NHS. It didn't happen. It was lies. It's depressing that people are gullible enough to fall for it. Again. 🙄

They could well win. In 2029. When the general election is.

The hype you are seeing on twitter and instagram is a curated feed just for you. My instagram feed is 50% owls and 50% progressive metal and I’ve never seen a single thing on it about Reform however I don’t think for a second that this is because everyone just really loves owls and progressive metal.

Farage apes after Trump. Is Trump's America really what you want for Britain, OP? Have a read what Farage would like to do to the NHS for starters and see if you're still as keen. He's an embarrassment. Did you not hear him.ranting about immigrants eating swans and supporting Trump linking autism and paracetamol? Is that truly the kind of leader you want?

I mean I kind of do... 🦉🎸

Sorry but you know of no other policies besides immigration but you’d vote for them?

This attitude is precisely why this country is wrecked. Get fooled by politicians like Farage and it’ll just get worse.

And people wonder why others think that reform voters are thick. Seriously.

Are people really that dense/stupid/idiotic that they would vote for a party based on one issue.

So as, presumably, a woman, who may or may not have disabled/gay/mixed race friends/relatives, how’s the proposal for getting rid of the equality act going to work for you? You would prefer that over having immigrants in the UK? Crack on then.

Seriously I despair at some people and actually think that people should have to take a test before being allowed to vote. Not seriously obviously but anyone who thinks they’re making a useful contribution by voting in a bigot like Farage off the basis of one policy probably should just not bother.

A party is elected with a huge majority to serve a five-year term. In less than a year, their poll ratings plummet. What do they do when they've been in power for less than half of their allotted term? Wake up one morning and call a general election! As the electorate don't like them, they vote them out. Genius 😀

Labour may be stumbling but they're not that dumb! As for Farage, he lives on Planet Nigel, with fairies as companions.

There’s no chance of a GE next year would be bonkers of labour to call one.
i doubt we’re going to see a PM farage but I see them potentially winning enough seats to be opposition in some capacity

Were there an election tomorrow I have no doubt that Reform would do very well indeed.
So please explain why you think anyone in the Labour Government (which still has a huge majority in parliament) would be stupid enough to think that calling a completely unnecessary GE, one year into a five year term would be in any way sensible?
Here's a hint.
THERE WILL NOT BE A GENERAL ELECTION NEXT YEAR

HTH

So I have gone and looked at his other policies, he's raising the tax threshold so that people earning below £20k a year don't get taxed, he will abolish inheritance tax which is a horrible unfair law. Social housing will be priority for British people and not immigrants

That would be really stupid. “We think we’re unpopular, so let’s give everyone a chance to get rid of us!”

It won’t happen. Farage knows that.

I was surprised when I read that the next election could be as far as 2029

What? Why would that be surprising? That’s always been the max time between elections?

Zero