Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

And on behalf of everyone, thank you for your £78k of income tax.

untaxed education is available to all.

State allocated education is available to all children, sometimes with a free taxi ride. Tax free non state education is not available to any children..anymore. Immoral.

They were jailed for admitting to incitement to violence

Ok 👍

@cardibach
They were jailed for admitting to incitement to violence. That’s a crime whether on Facebook or shouted from the Town Hall steps.

Just remind me who was jailed for this incitement to violence? With MSPs joining in the fun, no less.

Wasn’t it just removing ILR?
With the net result that there will be people who have spent decades working, paying taxes and making their contribution (just like their British counterparts) who will, on retirement, suddenly have to have incomes of £60k to be able to stay in the country where they have made their home and raised their families. I also wonder how that is going to work in practice - are said immigrants still going to get the state pensions and occupational pensions they have paid into all that time? If yes, how much is administrating that going to cost? If no, is there going to be a massive refund scheme to compensate these people by giving them back what they have paid in (adjusted for inflation)? How much will that cost? And if there's going to be no compensation scheme and no pensions - oh, the court cases to come...

And that's aside from the arguments already made about the economic issues this policy is going to cause. It's typical Reform stuff - sounds nice to the racists, no thought behind it as to the potential fallout.

You’re welcome, but I do think it’s time people started financially supporting their own families so tax can be used on improving UK infrastructure.

First, I don’t agree it’s immoral to tax a luxury education.
Second, if you are still banging on about it being ‘just a facebook post’ it’s not worth continuing this. The poster herself admitted it broke the law.

That’s not how state pensions work, Assuming by occupational pensions you mean defined contribution or defined benefit then these would still be payable, as you correctly say that they’ve paid in.

I agree those people should be prosecuted. Doesn’t make prosecuting other people immoral.

Exactly, it depends on your moral standards which was PPs point.
Children’s education is not a luxury, it’s not been considered such in the U.K. for hundreds of years.
Reform are correct on this.

We all know NI pays current pensions, but it’s part of a social contract that you get yours in return. Do you honestly think it’s moral to withdraw that?

There are some moral absolutes. For me, saying people should be burnt alive is on the wrong side of them - but you do you.

As @cardibach said, it's about the social contract. Which these immigrants signed up to by working, paying taxes and living as law abiding people in their communities. Kicking them out without paying the state pensions they have worked towards is at best immoral. In reality it's theft. If you think it's OK to do that, your moral compass is failing you.

Not taxing children’s education is also a moral absolute. We’ve managed to not tax education for hundreds of years without ‘burning children alive’ ?🙄

Because we’ve done something for thousands of years doesn’t mean it’s morally wrong to do something different. No idea what you are on about with the burning alive. Separate issue entirely. Nobody wants to burn private school children alive. Someone did say refugee ones should be though.

Hah hah on the nah 😂

The electorate is sick to death of the Tory ideologically driven, punishing austerity measures that lasted 14 years. Own it! Trickle down economics doesn't work. As any ful knows.

The USA has a bill for health care estimated at $4.8 trillion - break down to Medicare for seniors and Medicaid for low income. An insurance based medical system doesn't work.

Farage has never talked about large scale culls of immigrants. If he ever proposes that I will switch right back to the Tories since that would very much be Hitlers playbook.,

No. It’s easy really to lie and claim PIP. Especially about mental health conditions. Sorry to tell you… it’s obvious really. You’ve got too much faith in the system.

Yes big companies should pay higher wages.

More importantly - huge corporations should be made to pay their taxes. Starbucks, google etc. Pay v little tax. Why? Why aren’t politicians making them pay?

It looks like the majority are feeling fed up with Labour style ideology after 14 months anyway.

By cull I mean throw out - and he did just say he would if they won.

And apparently he has got form in Hitler fandom, according to his teachers.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/01/nigel-farage-what-are-schoolboy-racism-claims-why-have-they-resurfaced

No chance of an election next year Starmer would probably lose so he's not going to do that and it's up to the government to decide to call an election early or not. A fair chance of reform winning the next election but it's a way off and things can change. And his policies are a bit extreme and vague on detail for many people, he's doing the usual thing of promising everything to everybody with no clear way of doing any of it. A bit like labour last time....

Immoral? Possibly. I’m 32 and unlikely to receive a state pension (according to my financial advisor), it’s the direct consequence of poorly controlled mass immigration for decades. So, immoral or not the state pension is not guaranteed for anyone.

Does this all not strike you as quite desperate? It does Labours cause no favours.

Do you really think showing people for what they really are is desperate? I think it's really important. If it looks like a duck...

Besides, the right wing press are constantly digging up whatever they can about Labour politicians. I'm sure there are people whose entire job is just that.

You just have an opinion that it won’t be available. If it is becoming untenable it’s demographics in general, nit immigration that are causing the issue. In order to stop state pension for all/some people there would need to be really, really long notice and changes to NI.

Because we’ve done something for thousands of years doesn’t mean it’s morally wrong to do something different

Well no, but it’s been pretty much a settled debate that educating children is a good thing until very recently. I get you think it’s moral and right to tax children’s education, I don’t agree and it’s a moral red line for me. It’s a tick for Reform on education,