Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

The right is rapidly ascending around the world - perhaps you should ask yourself why?

Some opinions and behaviours are immoral, yes. Eg the Taliban's oppression of women in Afghanistan.

But none of the policies being proposed by UK parties are, including Reform. They're just not.

Imagining themselves as warriors-of-light gives Labour supporters self-righteous feel-good - so Labour push that rhetoric to bolster their support. But that is in itself pretty reprehensible, dangerous behaviour.

Given their headline grab over asylum today I’m not sure why they push the rhetoric anyway. It doesn’t match.

Putin and his bezzie Trump?

I think old people and carers, and genuinely disabled people and anyone else who needs state help, should get it. I think teachers, nurses and doctors and other key workers should be paid more. I think state schools should be properly overhauled. I think early learning should have more funding, sure start again etc.

What I don’t want to to pay for is thousands (if not millions) of benefit sponging claimants taking the piss, lying and easily claiming benefits. And yes PIP is one of the most easily abused. Don’t bother quoting the bat shit no fraud in pip thing, that’s based on very shaky assumptions. To say the least.

I could go on but you’re not listening anyway. You’ve already jumped to incomprehensible conclusions from my previous posts.

What I don’t want to to pay for is thousands (if not millions) of benefit sponging claimants taking the piss, lying and easily claiming benefits. And yes PIP is one of the most easily abused. Don’t bother quoting the bat shit no fraud in pip thing, that’s based on very shaky assumptions. To say the least.

@Absentosaur

Fraud on PIP is extremely difficult to achieve and in no way compares to tax avoidance and evasion.

I don't want to pay tax for those in business who pay such low wages, their employees need subsiding from the state coffers.

Liz Truss got it wrong, but Labour have done worse damage than Truss by all the measures she was condemned for.

oh come on, labour haven't pushed inflation up by 8% overnight and hammered mortgage rates like Liz did, everyone panicking that had a mortgage and still paying more per month thanks to her

Not really. Global conditions are much better than those the Conservatives faced: the aftermath of a global recession... a global pandemic which effectively shut down the economy worldwide for months as well as being an unprecedented national medical emergency... energy and food price spikes due to the war in Ukraine. Yet they were pulling through and we were starting to see better growth.

What has Labour had to deal with?!? US tariffs? They're lower than the US have imposed on most other countries. Labour should be shoring up our finances in preparation for the next unexpected shock, not getting more into debt.

France's issues are for similar reasons to us: self-inflicted rather than global conditions. I just mean that even comparing to the G7 isn't a particularly high bar.

Because there are difficult economic conditions for everyone. And the right sells a simple ‘answer’ - which won’t actually fix anything, but gives people someone to blame.

Pulling ILR from people who’ve been settled for decades isn’t immoral according to you? OK.

Nah.

Many were before DT’s second term. Happy to run through them with you.

It’s largely because the electorate are sick to the back teeth of socialism - it doesn’t work.

The UK is a live demonstration of this - unfortunately for us net contributors.

Tariffs are lower because of Starmer’s handling of the situation, thanks for recognising that.
The world is far less stable than it was. No use pretending otherwise.

We haven’t had a sovilsustgovernment for decades. We don’t have one now. Labour’s own paperwork describes them as social democratic. So your contention is people are fed up with something that hasn’t happened? Figures.

The last socialist government was the post war one which set up the NHS.

Why are people sick of Socialism? We haven’t seen any for years.

Not in Australia or Canada.

I know, right?

It's so terrible, isn't it, living under this socialist yoke. 🙄

If only everything could be unregulated and privatised so the "net contributors" could do what they like and hold onto every precious penny and buy themselves whatever they need. Cut through the red tape. To hell with the rest. Let's have the Victorian slums and workhouses back, pretty please. Women selling their bodies to eke out a living.

The ECHR - who needs human rights? Every man for himself. Just let the boats sink, eh?

In fact throw all the immigrants out, legal or illegal.

And all this from a country that colonised and plundered half the world.

Less stable doesn't really change the economic situation. They've managed to fuck up the economy in a time that should be reasonably easy sailing.

Maybe Starmer's negotiation, or maybe as a signal to the EU (ie a silver lining to Brexit) or maybe just an accident due to our trade deficit with the US (that was certainly how they initially calculated the tarifs initially, before Trump started using them as political punishment)

And all this from a country that colonised and plundered half the world

And there we have it.

Some of us don't hate our country, and don't feel a need to offer it up as atonement for past sins.

Why was the growth position in the G7 higher just before the GE compared with now?

For 2024, the UK's economic growth was the highest of the G7 nations in the first half of the year

We top the G7 inflation instead now. Which policies would you say have caused that change

You don't have to hate your country - I don't - but an open and honest acknowledgment of "past sins" (that this country continues to benefit from) and a bit of humility rather than increasingly aggressive rhetoric against immigrants would go some way to atone. Not all, but some.

I have nothing to atone for.

Everyone should be aware of their country's history and learn from past mistakes. The increasing hatred of immigrants here is particularly distasteful because of the past.

Never again?

Well it looks like conference helped both Labour and Reform equally however Labour still below 20%.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 35% (+2)
LAB: 19% (+2)
CON: 14% (=)
LDM: 12% (-4)
GRN: 11% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 1 Oct.

Jesus that's a load of hyperbolic nonsense

It was meant to be. Never heard of satire?