Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

Well yes of course. What we don’t want to do is continuously pay more and more tax, which isn’t spent on public services, but which is spent on an obese and getting bigger benefits bill. For example. The number of people in the UK on benefits now is preposterous. So no - I don’t want to pay for them to do fck all.

A 25% increase in VAT would finish the economy

I think the polls at the moment show they would have a massive share of the votes but probably not that many actual seats (def not enough for a majority)

It works in the Nordic countries that people want to be like. You can't a high tax, high spend economy without high taxes. As ever in the UK. When people say increase taxes, they increase taxes for someone else.

The latest MRP polls suggest over 300 parliamentary seats.

Do ‘Nordic’ countries have a near £70 Billion benefits bill like the UK?

Read the attached and weep. Well, if you’re a tax payer. This doesn’t even include the effects of lifting the 2 child benefits cap.

Horrifying.

https://archive.md/i4xmB

accessible link

Yes I’m not sure the pp is offering. It’s usually ‘someone else’.

They who? One set of people of Romanian origin doing it isn’t really a ‘they’. I’m not entirely sure it would be obvious they belonged to someone either. Geese arent owned, seagulls arent. Owls. Most birds you see out and about aren't owned.
It’s really not a regular occurrence. The Royal Parks people have said so.

This is it.

Labour are nothing more than grubby little thieves. What they haven’t counted on is many of us simply mitigating our tax exposure - via early retirement, reduced hours, emigration, disposals, deferrals.

They treat us with contempt and they expect us to cough up.

Well, they can do one.

They have 25% VAT. That would raise enough to fill the Labour deficit and would be paid fairly by all.

Are you a business person? Are you self employed?

Completely pointless. Come back in 2029.

I run a business what has got to do with it? Personally I would like to see the state shrunk but lots of people seem to want a Nordic style system so we would need similar taxes, but as soon as anyone suggests similar taxes it rapidly becomes "oh we didn't mean taxes that we pay, only the ones that other people pay".

Ha that's just what the conservatives said when the MRP polling suggested a Labour majority. In many way I hope labour turn around their actions and create a more business friendly environment, we can't really afford another 3 years of this shit, maybe the Family Reunion ban is a sign of starting to listen to the mood music of the country rather than the hard core activists. We will see.

Well, it's four years time. But I'm sure things will change.

Let's hope things change. I think we're all agreed there.

You're entitled to your political opinion. Which does seem to align with Labour's.

I disagree with a lot of that post: both the things you state as fact (eg about Nordic countries) and also the conclusions you draw from those.

I think you're wrong. You think I'm wrong.

Labour are currently in power, and will bring in policies which align to your world view, probably for the next 4 years. I'll be gnashing my teeth through most of that! At that point there will be a general election and each voter will get a chance to judge how that's gone and select who they would like to enact their world view for the next 5 years.

Let's stop the divisive crap about 'The Enemy' and 'Racists' and just accept that people have different world views and different opinions on the best way to run the country - not wrong, not immoral, just different to yours. And that it really won't be the end of the world if Reform get in.

I don't think it's horrifying. I think it's to be expected. If you allow housing to become unaffordable by selling off your rented social housing stock and then destroy your manufacturing sector, this is what you get.

Then add an ageing population and medical advances enabling disabled people to live l9nger and you have problems.

PIP enables disabled people to work. Be careful slating it and remember it isn't an out of work benefit.

Nobody should whinge about the pathetic pittance that is Carers Allowance. It saves the state millions every year.

Some opinions and behaviours are immoral though. And Farage’s general conduct has been pretty unpleasant over the years.
It won’t end the world if Reform get in, no. It could easily end the NHS and British values though (he doesn’t share them). Look at America. That’s what he wants. Going well there, isn’t it?

Yes, equally cruel. The swans probably had a better death.

Just noticed this. You misunderstand. I’m not saying growth would be better if we were still in the EU (though it would). I’m saying our growth is about in the middle of the EU pack as it stands.

Ah, you're right - I did misread. But the whole EU isn't really the right comparison. Our growth is the 2nd slowest of the G7 countries (only beating Germany). And the latest policies are still to hit.

I'm not saying that we're the only ones with problems, by the way! France's debt is even higher than ours, and they are - like us - having a huge struggle to control costs.

So can you accept that there are difficult global conditions for this government? And that their policies arent causing more issues than those of others?

We were at the top just before the GE.