Well . . .
Look at history, look at our commerce, look at recent events.
There is a major war in Europe, with no end in sight.
There is war in the Middle East, with no end in sight.
Western monetary systems collapsed in 2008 and they have never recovered. Virtually all western countries are literally broke.
Men of fighting age, from countries that have been preciously attacked by western forces, are pouring into Europe, thousands of indivdual, on a daily basis, the numbers are staggering. They are deliberately making their way to those countries that are considered to be "in power" or have influence over EU politics. The UK, Germany, France . . .
Western "democracies" are the weakest they have ever been. There are immigration riots in the US, the EU, Ireland, UK . . .
People are poor, jobs are scarce (and the advent of A.I will ensure they only get harder to find). Societies are fractured and there is immense anger within communities. People are seeing their neighbourhoods, their country, change before their eyes. They have no certainty anymore. There are millions of people who feel like they are invisible, and don't feel their own government is working for them.
We are in the most precarious and dangerous place since the end of WW2.
If Iran or their proxies decide to blockade the shipping routes, western economies will not be able to survive the oil shock.
If oil rises by 50 to 80 percent, which it will if the tankers are attacked or blocked, we are fucked.
That will be the touch paper for a global conflict.