Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

991 replies

MagicFox · 09/05/2024 13:25

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
265
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/05/2024 10:50

I wouldn't trust what's on the surface with Patrushev. A vicious hawk like him working with China intensively is bad news. The more Russia can get China on side - and China's been supplying more stuff for the war ofc - the better for Russia.

MagicFox · 14/05/2024 10:56

It does look like the world is dividing into two competing blocs with the so-called global south vacillating between Ru-China and US-Europe. India will presumably remain a balancing power and looks rosy. I guess (barring the worst case scenario of a russia-NATO conflict as a result of accidental escalation) we're looking at a new iron curtain between Russia and the west. I do think Europe's needs to get much more strategic about its future now - like Macron said, the EU is mortal. Something needs to change but I'm not sure we have many grown ups in charge

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 14/05/2024 11:04

MagicFox · 14/05/2024 10:56

It does look like the world is dividing into two competing blocs with the so-called global south vacillating between Ru-China and US-Europe. India will presumably remain a balancing power and looks rosy. I guess (barring the worst case scenario of a russia-NATO conflict as a result of accidental escalation) we're looking at a new iron curtain between Russia and the west. I do think Europe's needs to get much more strategic about its future now - like Macron said, the EU is mortal. Something needs to change but I'm not sure we have many grown ups in charge

I agree however at the same time it’ll be very different to the last iron curtain. During the Cold War the Soviet Union and the West had virtually nothing to do with one another. Today that simply isn’t possible, trade and economics are far too interconnected and there are significant Global issues that require cooperation, whether we like it or not.

I think the rush to buy gold by China is interesting and is a clear indication that they intend to become the go to reserve currency for the Global South, in turn allowing those countries to more easily decouple fr the US.

MagicFox · 14/05/2024 11:10

Yes I agree. And I haven't seen any really robust discussion of where we go with Russia in that sense. That's a conversation we need to have because, unfortunately, there does need to be a relationship for all the reasons you describe

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 14/05/2024 11:45

MagicFox · 14/05/2024 11:10

Yes I agree. And I haven't seen any really robust discussion of where we go with Russia in that sense. That's a conversation we need to have because, unfortunately, there does need to be a relationship for all the reasons you describe

I suspect that’s where China holds the key. It’s China we need to cooperate with, at the end of the day I can’t see Russia being in a position for some time to address issues like climate change.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/05/2024 11:51

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Estonian official says Tallinn β€˜seriously’ discussing sending troops to Ukraine for non-combat roles. kyivindependent.com/estonian-official-says-country-is-seriously-considering-sending-troops-for-non-combat-duties/

Ukraine war latest: Russian troops push further in Kharkiv Oblast nearly 6,000 people evacuated from region https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russian-troops-push-further-in-kharkiv-oblast-nearly-6-000-people-evacuated-from-region/

⚑️ Budanov sees stabilization signs https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-sees-tendency-to-improve-the-situation-in-kharkiv-region/ in Kharkiv Oblast hostilities.
The situation in Kharkiv Oblast "is not catastrophic," and there are indicators pointing toward stabilization, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on national television on May 14.
Russian troops have been blocked on the frontiers they had reached, according to the military intelligence chief. Ukraine's operation to further stabilize the situation and start to push Russian troops back across the border is ongoing, Budanov said.

⚑️ Zelensky to Blinken: Ukraine needs 2 Patriots https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-blinken-thanks-for-us-defense-aid/ to protect Kharkiv Oblast.

⚑️NYT: Budanov expects Russia to launch new attack on Sumy Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-budanov-expects-russia-to-launch-new-attack-on-sumy-oblast/

⚑️ General Staff: Russian forces 'partially succeed' near Lukiantsi in Kharkiv Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-partially-succeeds-near-settlement-of-lukiantsi-in-kharkiv-oblast/

⚑️ Ambassador: Germany to supply Ukraine with another IRIS-T air defense system in May. https://kyivindependent.com/ambassador-germany-to-supply-ukraine-with-another-iris-t-air-defense-system-in-may/

⚑️Former Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev has been reappointed as an aide to Putin, the Kremlin announced on May 14.
Patrushev, who is believed to be one of Putin's closest confidants and held the position of Security Council secretary since 2008, was replaced by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on May 12. https://kyivindependent.com/former-russian-security-council-secretary-reappointed-as-putins-aide/

⚑️ Putin to visit China on May 16-17 meet Xi. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-to-visit-china-on-may-16-17-hold-talks-with-xi/

⚑️ Russian media: Russian Defense Ministry personnel chief Kuznetsov detained. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-senior-russian-defense-ministry-official-detained/
Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov, the head of the personnel department of the Russian Defense Ministry, was detained on May 13 on criminal charges, the state-owned news agency TASS reported, citing undisclosed law enforcement sources.

⚑FT: Moldova, EU to sign https://kyivindependent.com/ft-moldova-eu-to-sign-security-pact/ security pact.
Moldova and the EU intend to sign a security agreement in the next week, increasing cooperation in the spheres of defense, cyber threats, and foreign interference to "unprecedented levels," the Financial Times reported on May 14.

⚑️ Warsaw suspends talks on Polish farmer protests https://kyivindependent.com/official-warsaw-stops-negotiations-with-kyiv-on-border-issue-over-corruption-scandal-with-ex-agriculture-minister/ due to corruption suspicions involving former Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi, Polish Deputy Agriculture Minister Michal Kolodziejczak told the media outlet Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

⚑️Russia approves bill to ban 'undesirable' foreign state-funded organizations.
The Russian government passed a law on May 13 that would expand the list of "undesirable" organizations to include those funded by foreign states, which then could be subject to bans. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-approves-bill-to-ban-undesirable-foreign-state-funded-organizations/

Explainer: What's behind ongoing protests in Georgia?
For the past few weeks, thousands of protesters have gathered every night in front of the Georgian parliament in opposition to the controversial foreign agents law that the ruling Georgian Dream party is attempting to pass. https://kyivindependent.com/explainer-whats-behind-ongoing-protests-in-georgia/

⚑️Biden signs bipartisan bill prohibiting Russian imports of enriched uranium https://kyivindependent.com/biden-signs-bipartisan-bill-prohibiting-russian-imports-of-enriched-uranium/

⚑️Reuters: Blinken arrives in Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-blinken-arrives-in-ukraine/

The Counteroffensive: Inside Ukraine's prisoner of war negotiations with Russia https://kyivindependent.com/the-counteroffensive-inside-ukraines-prisoner-of-war-negotiations-with-russia/
The Counteroffensive spoke to Konstantinas Rimsa, a hostage negotiations specialist who helped train Ukrainian POW negotiators from 2014 to 2022. Rimsa explained that Russia is very ready to delay and obstruct the POW negotiations.

⚑️Zelensky dismisses https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-dismisses-first-deputy-head-of-foreign-intelligence-service/ Foreign Intelligence Service’s first deputy head. There was no reason given for his dismissal. He was replaced by Oleh Luhovskyi in a subsequent decree.

⚑️Georgian police arrest two US citizens at Tbilisi protests. https://kyivindependent.com/georgian-police-arrest-2-us-citizens-at-tbilisi-protests/

⚑️Russia attacks 11 communities in Sumy Oblast.
⚑️Explosions reported in Kharkiv.
⚑️ Governor: 6 children brought back from Russian-occupied territory.

⚑️Russia attacks Kharkiv with glide bombs. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-kharkiv-with-glide-bombs/
⚑️ Freight train derailed in Russia's Volgograd Oblast due to alleged 'interference.' RIA Novosti wrote, citing the country's Emergency Situations Ministry, that a tank with diesel fuel and a car with lumber caught fire but had been extinguished as of 6:40 a.m. local time.
⚑️ Update: Death toll in Belgorod apartment building collapse reportedly rises to 16.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

β–  2nd highest casualties to date, record 7-days, high level of engagements
β–  Drones, APVs & special equipment above 7-day average
β–  SU-25 among reported losses; 3rd jet this month so far
β–  GSUA changing strike reporting

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/05/2024 11:55

Igotjelly · 14/05/2024 11:45

I suspect that’s where China holds the key. It’s China we need to cooperate with, at the end of the day I can’t see Russia being in a position for some time to address issues like climate change.

I doubt very much indeed they -want- to address them, from the stuff I've read.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/05/2024 12:07

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are poised to strengthen and stabilize the situation in Kharkiv Oblast in the next few days, but there are concerns about potential Russian offensives in Sumy Oblast, according to Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the GUR, in an interview with the New York Times.
Key points from the interview include:
▫️ The situation along the border in the northeast of the country is rapidly approaching a critical point.
▫️ Russian attacks in the northeast aim to deplete Ukrainian forces and divert attention from other fronts, which is currently happening.
▫️ Efforts are being made to reinforce defenses in the northeast by diverting troops from other areas, but finding personnel is challenging as reserves are limited.
▫️ While the defense forces expect to strengthen positions and stabilize the front in the coming days, there are concerns about a new Russian offensive in the Sumy region thereafter.
▫️ Russian objectives in the northeast include instilling panic and confusion, but the Ukrainian goal is to stabilize the front and eventually push back Russian forces. Mobilizing reserves has partially disrupted Russian plans.
▫️ Shelling in the Kharkiv region is anticipated to continue for three or four more days before a potential Russian offensive towards Sumy.

The Prime Minister of Denmark intended to announce the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine within months, not a month. The Die Zeit correspondent apologized for the incorrect information.

The USA will provide Ukraine with additional long-range weapons, expected to be deployed on the front lines by this summer, according to former US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland in an interview with "Meduza".

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΈSpain will transfer 10 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, β€” El PaΓ­s.
It is noted that the new aid package will be prepared by June 30. It will also include:
▫️ large caliber artillery ammunition;
▫️ light and heavy machine guns;
▫️ protected wheeled and armored infantry vehicles;
▫️ anti-tank weapons and field artillery shells;
▫️ anti-aircraft surveillance systems;
▫️ weapon stations for protection against UAVs.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Jim O'Brien is going to Georgia with a ready-made package of sanctions against oligarch Ivanishvili, β€” Georgian TV channels "Imedi" and "Rustavi 2" with reference to sources.

Russia is waging a hybrid war against Poland with Belarusian help. The migration crisis is escalating.
More than 140 illegal migrants from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East tried to break through from Belarus to Poland. It happened in the evening of May 10.
Belarusian border guards did not prevent them. The migrants behaved aggressively and threw twigs and stones towards Polish border guards and military officers.
Over the past 3 days, 824 migrants tried to illegally enter Poland from Belarus.

The Russian military air defense base on the mountain Ai-Petri in the occupied Crimea was damaged as a result of a missile attack, writes Astra.
It is noted that the commander of the unit was killed.

Since March 2022, more than 60 new models of small arms have entered service with the Armed Forces, β€” the Ministry of Defense.
These include, in particular, MG3, M-240, Barrett MRAD, CZ Scorpion EVO 3A1, as well as domestically produced weapons such as UAR-15 rifles and Laska-K2 machine guns.
In 2024, the Ministry of Defense also approved almost 20 new weapons, including FN Minimi, HK 416, Browning M-2 and others.

Serbia will resume the work of its embassy in Ukraine for the first time since the beginning of the large-scale invasion by the Russian Federation, as stated by the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, following a meeting with the President of Serbia, Aleksandar VučiΔ‡.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/05/2024 12:18

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Evacuations have begun in the towns of Bilopillia and Vorozhba due to intensified Russian shelling
The Sumy Regional Military Administration reports that this is not a forced evacuation, but a voluntary one.

Sullivan: The US will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Sweden is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, and President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1789953719246770635 its details with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

President Volodymyr Zelensky met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Here's what they talked about:
▫️Two Patriots are needed to protect Kharkiv and the oblast, Zelensky said, adding that air defense is β€œthe biggest deficit.”
▫️American aid is on the way, some of it has already arrived. Blinken says it will have an impact on the situation at the front.
▫️ US Secretary of State emphasizes that his country is determined to continue supporting Ukraine.
▫️US President Joe Biden's participation in the Peace Summit in Switzerland is important for Ukraine.

The UK government has insisted that its position on supporting Ukraine in a full-scale war against Russia has not changed after media reports of a dialogue between British Foreign Secretary Cameron and Trump suggested otherwise https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-david-cameron-ukraine-peace-deal-mar-a-lago-military-aid/

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
lovelysoap · 14/05/2024 13:13

For the love of God how many bloody tanks does Russia still have left???
7507 gone.

TheABC · 14/05/2024 13:56

lovelysoap · 14/05/2024 13:13

For the love of God how many bloody tanks does Russia still have left???
7507 gone.

I went googling after I saw your post. Russia have the Cold War stockpiles of up to 12,000 (although how many of those can actally be used is another question) and they can produce 100-150 new tanks a month.

Hopefully someone more qualified than I am will chime in.

However, if this war continues at the same rate into 2025, there will be a point when Ukraine is killing tanks faster than they can be made.

MissConductUS · 14/05/2024 14:10

Ukraine is already killing more tanks than the Russians can make, and has since the start of the war. They are making no more than 1800 per year, and have lost over 6000 since the start of the war a bit more than two years ago.

That's why you see Russian tanks from the 1960s on the battlefield. It's a losing battle from a resources standpoint too. NLAWs, Javelins and drones are much cheaper to build than tanks.

notimagain · 14/05/2024 14:31

Darned if I know but drawing parallels with past air wars I’d be asking are the advertised losses accurate?

Foul ups in the past have included multiple engagements by several uncoordinated platforms on a single target being claimed as multiple kills and how much of what appears to be destroyed actually is destroyed?

There’s no doubt the Russians are losing assets big time but I’d be sceptical of at least some of the claims.

https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/02/equipment-losses-in-russias-war-on-ukraine-mount/

MissConductUS · 14/05/2024 15:52

It is hard to confirm kills visually, and a vehicle kill is often counted more than once. That's why you try to verify by looking at movement, as the IISS article does. How many have been pulled out of storage yards? How many leave FoBs and don't return? Ten leave the yard, seven return, likely three kills. And many vehicle kills are partial. A track blown off is a mobility kill until it can be replaced, which it may never be. It may not be practical to retrieve it in a hot zone.

It's an inexact science.

The bigger picture here is more important. In Russian ground combat doctrine, tanks are the decisive weapon, except they haven't been that in Ukraine. They've been more vulnerable to antitank missiles, drones, and mines than the Russians anticipated. Their best tank units were mauled at the beginning of the war. Russian tanks are now death traps driven by poorly trained crews, and they're often 40 years old or more. They're not winning the war, and the Russians don't have a plan B without them.

lovelysoap · 14/05/2024 16:18

So 12,000 in storage, possibly 7,000 gone. Maybe 3,000 left (actually vaguely servicable). losing about 3,500 per year. Producing about 1,500 per year.

At this rate Russia could have 18 months left of tanks..........

They will then just continue to throw an infinite number of drones and wretched human beings at Ukraine.

The world has gone stark raving mad about 24,000 mainly Hamas being killed in Gaza and not a word about the genocide of Russian men to the tune of nearly 500,000.

Igotjelly · 14/05/2024 16:46

lovelysoap · 14/05/2024 16:18

So 12,000 in storage, possibly 7,000 gone. Maybe 3,000 left (actually vaguely servicable). losing about 3,500 per year. Producing about 1,500 per year.

At this rate Russia could have 18 months left of tanks..........

They will then just continue to throw an infinite number of drones and wretched human beings at Ukraine.

The world has gone stark raving mad about 24,000 mainly Hamas being killed in Gaza and not a word about the genocide of Russian men to the tune of nearly 500,000.

It really is craziness. It's not genocide (that requires very specific actions and motive under international law - though arguably their actions in Ukraine amount to genocide against the Ukrainian people) but it's certainly egregious.

lovelysoap · 14/05/2024 16:56

Igotjelly · 14/05/2024 16:46

It really is craziness. It's not genocide (that requires very specific actions and motive under international law - though arguably their actions in Ukraine amount to genocide against the Ukrainian people) but it's certainly egregious.

What Putin et al are doing to Ukraine, i think, can be described as genocide, transferring children, rape, attacking culture, both physical museums but also language and history. Putin has also i believe used genocidal language quite openly and directly toward Ukraine's denial of ethnicity and existence etc. However i do think what he is doing to Russia and Russian people , men in particular could be described as genocidal it is so deliberately destructive of Russia economically, physically etc He is destroying Russia.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/05/2024 18:05

He's certainly destroying decency and courage in Russia, the ability to self-reflect and contribute dissenting -but considered- and reasoned voices. Also technologically they're apparently falling a long way behind, though they shout loudly.

Regarding the awful deaths in Israel and in Gaza ... I can't help remembering how Assad and Russia are responsible for 600,000 deaths in Syria repressing protests that started out peaceful and levelling entire ancient cities like Aleppo - but it's Gaza that gets the attention.

Not that the West has not been responsible for an awful lot of deaths. Even so, the Syrian conflict has been forgotten it seems.

Mb76 · 14/05/2024 22:14

Re - genocide - Russian authorities have always had very little regard for human lives of their people. The ongoing rhetoric has been β€œbaba’s (a demeaning term for women) will give birth to more” as in they will always have an infinite supply of cannon meat. So no they do not see it as genocide of their own people but rather as an honour to have their lives sacrificed for their victory.

MagicFox · 14/05/2024 22:30

Mb76 · 14/05/2024 22:14

Re - genocide - Russian authorities have always had very little regard for human lives of their people. The ongoing rhetoric has been β€œbaba’s (a demeaning term for women) will give birth to more” as in they will always have an infinite supply of cannon meat. So no they do not see it as genocide of their own people but rather as an honour to have their lives sacrificed for their victory.

God, that's awful

OP posts:
blueshoes · 14/05/2024 22:58

It still hurts if it is your husband or son or loved one but I have no tears to shed for Russians.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/05/2024 23:02

There are Russians who have paid for deported Ukrainians to fly to Japan to escape Siberia; others who are teaching their children quietly and secretly that what Russia is doing to Ukraine is wrong; some who contribute -to- Ukraine.

By this stage and with the appalling behaviour of Russian soldiers, truly barbaric actions, it's hard to be fair to any Russian at the moment though.

The inculcation of army mentality in the fucking nursery classes is genuinely repulsive and a bad sign for the future.

DdraigGoch · 15/05/2024 00:07

Mb76 · 14/05/2024 22:14

Re - genocide - Russian authorities have always had very little regard for human lives of their people. The ongoing rhetoric has been β€œbaba’s (a demeaning term for women) will give birth to more” as in they will always have an infinite supply of cannon meat. So no they do not see it as genocide of their own people but rather as an honour to have their lives sacrificed for their victory.

They'll struggle to reproduce enough to replenish the population given the number of men they're losing. Unless they make polygamy legal. Birth rates were pretty low around the turn of the millenium (fertility rate was as low as 1.16 and still today remains below replacement level), which means that the current 20-something Russians (who will make up a large chunk of the cannon fodder, as well as being the age group which would be responsible for repopulating) were already thin on the ground. Expect to see the Russian population plummet by tens of millions over the next 20 years, with massive issues caused by an aging population.

Not that the same demographic issues won't be felt by Ukraine of course, the difference being that Russia has inflicted this upon itself whereas Ukraine is a victim of Russian aggression.

DdraigGoch · 15/05/2024 00:12

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/05/2024 23:02

There are Russians who have paid for deported Ukrainians to fly to Japan to escape Siberia; others who are teaching their children quietly and secretly that what Russia is doing to Ukraine is wrong; some who contribute -to- Ukraine.

By this stage and with the appalling behaviour of Russian soldiers, truly barbaric actions, it's hard to be fair to any Russian at the moment though.

The inculcation of army mentality in the fucking nursery classes is genuinely repulsive and a bad sign for the future.

There are good Russians about, certainly. Navalny's loss was something to be sad about, to give one high-profile example. Not the ones in the meat-grinder though. I shed no tears for them.

Naem · 15/05/2024 00:38

MagicFox · 14/05/2024 10:56

It does look like the world is dividing into two competing blocs with the so-called global south vacillating between Ru-China and US-Europe. India will presumably remain a balancing power and looks rosy. I guess (barring the worst case scenario of a russia-NATO conflict as a result of accidental escalation) we're looking at a new iron curtain between Russia and the west. I do think Europe's needs to get much more strategic about its future now - like Macron said, the EU is mortal. Something needs to change but I'm not sure we have many grown ups in charge

One aspect I think is unlikely is that India will be able to remain a balancing power. The closer the Russians and the Chinese get, the harder that gets for India. India and China have had serious border incidents and India (quite rightly) sees China as a serious threat. They like(d) Russia as a balance for China, but with Russia increasingly the junior member in the pact, that makes it very hard for India to keep the balancing up. I also don't think they like Iran much, and the more influence Iran (and the rest of the Muslim world ) has in the new block, again the more difficult it will be for India to be able to be even handed as some sort of balancing power. Don't know how it will play out exactly, but if it really turns into two blocks, I can't see India being able to stay neutral, and there (ought) to be only one way they can go.

This thread prevents users from posting on it until they have been members for at least 14 days.

Swipe left for the next trending thread