Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

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Hi @Naem, hope you are surviving okay.

Zelensky cancelling his trips to Portugal and Spain is quite telling as to just how serious the situation in Kharkiv region is.

Depressing piece from Jack Watling at RUSI

"The Russian forces attacking Ukraine have now expanded to 510,000 troops. This means that Russia has established significant numerical superiority over the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)."

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-russia-beginning-compound-advantages

It’s so bleak isn’t it. 500k men is obscene!

Blinken’s language in his statement in the past hour are interesting. - It is for Ukraine to decide for itself to decide whether to strike Russia with US provided weapons but the US wouldn’t encourage it.

Its subtle but it’s making those red lines pink and I think that’s positive.

Sky News claiming there's been some push back of russian troops 🙏 I hope the US supplies are starting to arrive and making a difference.

"the more influence Iran (and the rest of the Muslim world ) has in the new block, again the more difficult it will be for India to be able to be even handed as some sort of balancing power"

I suspect that the behaviour of the militantly Hindu Indian government towards India's Muslim citizens may mean that it will be difficult for Muslim countries to feel all that warmly towards them, too. I would have thought they are unlikely to be seen as even-handed by Muslims.

SKY reporting that Slovakian PM has been shot

No other info

Shooter has been detained

SecDef hinted at the same thing. I think they will use ATACMS on targets on Russian territory, and neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians will admit to that happening. The Russians won't say anything because it's very bad news for them, and they'd be admitting that they can't intercept them. And, short of retaliating against NATO targets in Europe, they don't have a counter that would change the situation.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Air Force General Charles Q. Brown Jr., Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Hold A News Conference Following Virtual Meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group

Q: If I may follow, officials had expressed before concerns that Russia — that the Ukraine may try to fire ATACMS at Russia or that there weren't enough in U.S. stockpiles. Did either of those affect your decision to provide the long-range ATACMS?

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, first of all, as you know, my — I always have a concern about the United States having the capability to defend itself and to also support our operational plans. And I can tell you that we — are comfortable that we are in a good place and we will remain in a good place.

You know, over — in two years' time, things change, you know? More munitions are created and that sort of business. So we are in a good place, we'll remain in a good place, and I think the capability that Ukraine will have is a good capability.

So it up to them on how and when to use it, and our hopes are that they'll create some pretty good effects with that and other things.

Oh boy. As if the political situation wasn't unstable enough. And shooting Balkans leaders has a bad precedent.

I don’t like Fico or his politics but no democratically elected politician shouldn’t be safe to meet his supporters in 2024. Be interesting to know the motive given he’s more pro-Russia than some but not as pro-Russian as others….

Might simply be a nutter like the one who killed John Lennon, seeking instant fame.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was reportedly shot and injured in a shooting in the town of Handlova in Slovakia on May 15, lawmakers confirmed to the Slovak news agency Tasr. https://kyivindependent.com/slovak-pm-fico-reportedly-injured-in-shooting/

⚡️ CNN: Zelensky cancels Spain, Portugal visits due to battlefield situation. https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-zelensky-cancels-spain-and-portugal-visits-due-to-battlefield-situation/

Zelensky decided to postpone all of his international events planned for the coming days, the Presidential Office said on May 15.

Ukraine war latest: 30,000 Russian troops involved in Kharkiv Oblast offensive https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-may-14/
Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops "changed positions" near the village of Lukiantsi in Kharkiv Oblast "to save the lives" of their soldiers, Ukraine's General Staff reported on May 14.

⚡️ Military: Situation in Kharkiv Oblast somewhat stabilized but heavy battles continue. https://kyivindependent.com/military-situation-in-kharkiv-direction-stabilized/

Ukraine deploys more forces to Kharkiv Oblast https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-deploys-more-forces-to-kharkiv-oblast/

⚡️Governor reports 25 civilian casualties, near 8,000 evacuations amid Russian assault on Kharkiv Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/25-civilian-casualties-near-8-000-evacuations/

⚡️Pentagon: US 'working hard' to rush aid to Ukraine, https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-us-working-hard-to-rush-aid-to-ukraine-battlefield-situation-concerning/ battlefield situation 'concerning.'
"It was not helpful to have this pause in security assistance," Pentagon spokesperson Major General Pat Ryder said on May 14

⚡️ Blinken on May 15: Washington has not encouraged Ukraine to strike inside Russia with US weapons, but decision up to Kyiv. Ukraine "has to make decisions for itself" when deciding how to use U.S.-supplied weapons that could strike targets inside Russian territory. https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-up-to-ukraine-if-it-decides-to-use-us-weapons-to-strike-inside-russia/

⚡️ Blinken: US to give Ukraine additional $2 billion in military financing. https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-us-to-give-ukraine-additional-2-billion-in-military-aid/

⚡️Russian troops taking up positions on streets of Vovchansk, police chief says. https://kyivindependent.com/police-chief-russian-troops-vovchansk/
Kharkivskyi said that the police are still carrying out evacuations of civilians left in Vovchansk, but the situation is "extremely difficult."

BUT

⚡️ General Staff: Russian forces 'partially pushed out' from Vovchansk. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russian-forces-partially-pushed-out-of-vovchansk/

⚡️ As Russian casualties surge Kremlin's new defense minister says he wants 'minimal losses.' https://kyivindependent.com/as-russian-troop-deaths-surge-kremlins-new-defense-minister-says-he-wants-minimal-losses/

⚡️ Georgian parliament passes 'foreign agents' https://kyivindependent.com/georgian-parliament-passes-foreign-agents-bill-in-final-reading/ bill in final reading.

⚡️White House: If 'foreign agents' bill passes, US will be compelled to 'reassess' relationship with Georgia. https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-if-foreign-agents-bill-passes-us-will-be-compelled-to-reassess-relationship-with-georgia/

⚡️Reuters: France to deliver additional air defense missiles, military aid shortly. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-france-to-deliver-additional-air-defense-missiles-military-aid-shortly/

⚡️Reuters: US warns Raiffeisen that access to dollar system could be restricted due to Russia presence. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-warned-raiffeisen-bank/

⚡️ Estonian defense minister: No new development https://kyivindependent.com/estonian-defense-minister-ukraine-troops/ on idea to send troops to Ukraine

The often-repeated narrative that "Ukraine rejected a peace deal offered by Russia in the spring of 2022" is "one of the favorite lies promoted by Russia," said Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in a video address posted on X on May 14. https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-says-narrative-that-ukraine-rejected-peace-deal-is-lie-promoted-by-russia/

⚡️Ukraine introduces emergency power cuts country amid 'significant' shortage. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-introduces-emergency-shutdowns-throughout-country-amid-significant-power-shortage/

⚡️ National Bank: Ukraine's losses from Polish blockade partially offset by maritime trade.
Losses amounted to $500 million in lost imports and $160 million in exports in its first month, the National Bank of Ukraine said on May 14. https://kyivindependent.com/national-bank-ukranies-polish-blockade-losses-partially-offset-by-maritime-trade/

⚡️Latvia to allocate additional $11 million for Czech-led initiative to buy artillery shells for Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-to-allocate-nearly-11-million-for-czech-led-initiative-to-buy-artillery-shells-for-ukraine/

⚡️Reuters: France, Netherlands want EU to sanction https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-france-netherlands-want-eu-to-sanction-financial-institutions-that-help-russian-army/ financial institutions that help Russian army.
The proposed sanctions would prohibit anyone in the EU from doing business with any financial institution that helps the Russian military purchase dual-use goods and technologies.

⚡️Poll: 50% of Ukrainians in Poland, Germany, Czechia, say they are 'less likely to return' to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/poll-50-of-ukrainians-in-poland-germany-czechia-say-they-are-less-likely-to-return-to-ukraine/

48 hours in Kharkiv, home to 1.3million people, Ukraine's most-bombed major city https://kyivindependent.com/48-hours-in-kharkiv-ukraines-most-bombed-major-city/

Calls for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia evoke a fateful Pereiaslav Treaty between the Cossacks and Muscovites that subjugated Ukraine to Moscow for centuries. https://kyivindependent.com/pereiaslav-council/

⚡️SBU detains 6 alleged Russian agents accused of aiding deadly strike https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-6-alleged-russian-agents-says-they-directed-mass-casualty-strike-on-residential-building/ in Donetsk Oblast.
Five men and one woman accused of helping Russian forces direct a missile attack on a residential building that killed ten people and injured over 80 have been arrested.

⚡️Russian air strikes on Kharkiv injure 21 people, including 3 children .
⚡️ Russian assault on Vovchansk kills 2 elderly civilians.
⚡️Two volunteers in Vovchansk reported missing, allegedly shot by Russian troops.
⚡️Russian attacks on Sumy Oblast injure 1.
⚡️ Russian attack on Mykolaiv injures 6.
⚡️ Russian attack on Dnipro kills 2 damages infrastructure.
A Russian aerial bomb strike injured two nurses and a doctor in Mala Danylivka, a village on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
⚡️Russian forces carried out an airstrike against central Kherson on May 15, injuring at least 11 people, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.

⚡️Russian proxy: Missile attack causes fires https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxies-missile-attack-causes-fires-explosions-in-occupied-sevastopol/ explosions in occupied Sevastopol.
⚡️Russian official: Drones strike oil depot in Rostov Oblast.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken joined a local band in Kyiv on May 14 for a rendition of Neil Young's "Rockin' in the Free World." https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-sings-plays-guitar-with-local-band-in-kyiv/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

• MAY 15, 2024

■ 2nd highest casualties to date, record 7-day casualties, high level of combat engagements ■ APVs, tanks & special equipment above 7-day average ■ Changed strike reporting; shelling has replaced number of MLRS strikes

I've been very impressed with Antony Blinken in recent weeks. Makes me wonder if he's thinking of running for president next time round...

I wish he'd run this time around Biden vs Trump makes my blood run cold.

I could not agree more. He is measured, reassuring and knows his stuff. He also conveys a sense of calm.

Yes. But maybe he's biding his time. If he runs next time and wins he'll still be in his 60s, refreshingly young compared to the current shower!

A lot of people have been impressed with Blinken, including me. And he's a New Yorker. 😀

The strikes against him are that presidential candidates are usually former legislators or state governors, not diplomats. He's also Jewish, which I don't think matters much these days, but not everyone agrees with me on that.

Foreign policy is usually secondary to domestic issues and the economy in a presidential race. In my opinion, Biden's been so wobbly on Ukraine because he's too focused on domestic issues and how they impact his chances of reelection.

And yesterday he joined a Ukrainian punk band in a gig and chose a Neil Young song to play. Good all-rounder.

@MissConductUS I wondered about that, thank you. One would hope that people would see that he's supremely qualified, but I can understand that domestically it doesn't play like that.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The start of negotiations with Ukraine can be along the current front line, without the withdrawal of Russian troops, said Russian dictator Putin in an interview with Xinhua.

The EU Council approved a plan to support Ukraine with a €50 billion facility.
Ukraine will now receive €1.89 billion in preliminary financing. It is reported that the country will receive the rest of the budgetary support on a quarterly basis after meeting the indicators set out in Ukraine's plan. The total financial assistance from the EU is expected to reach €16 billion in 2024.
The plan identifies 69 reforms and 10 investments that will contribute to the country's sustainable economic growth. The implementation of the plan's indicators will also provide the basis for effective recovery, reconstruction and modernization of Ukraine and bring it closer to EU integration.

Ukraine needs a total of 7 Patriot batteries, according to Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
During a press conference with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Kuleba noted that 2 of these batteries were needed literally "yesterday" to ensure the protection of the Kharkiv region.

The secretary of state noted that the United States is now "intensely focused" on providing Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems and other equipment.

At the Washington NATO summit, new measures will be undertaken to support Ukraine, building upon bilateral security agreements between NATO members and Ukraine, which have already been signed with 19 countries and will soon include the United States, stated US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during his visit to Kyiv on May 14.

Denmark makes a new €5.3 million transfer to the Energy Support Fund for Ukraine. The total amount of Denmark's financial assistance to the Fund has reached almost €17 million.

Emmanuel Macron promises Volodymyr Zelenskyy more military aid “in the coming days and weeks”.

They saved thousands of Jews. On May 14, Ukraine pays tribute to people known as the Righteous among Nations. The Holocaust Museum honor roll includes the names of 2691 Ukrainians.
This makes Ukraine the 4th largest contributor to the rescue of Jews during WWII.

The Finnish authorities are considering a simplified mechanism for confiscating real estate owned by Russians for which they owe money, — Yle.

This is how a high-rise building in Kharkiv looks like after being hit by the occupiers.
There are already 17 injured, including children aged 8 and 12.

Anton Gerushenko:

Official information from PM Fico's team:

His condition is life threatening. The next few hours will be decisive.

Shooter is reportedly a 71 year old Slovakian