Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

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Patrushev will no doubt go somewhere else but yet to be confirmed where

The term rearranging the deckchairs springs to mind!

Oh my 😱. Those are big moves by Putin. That said, Zelensky recently had his own senior leadership reshuffle.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1Tr30fL8_Yo

Not watched yet. Some analysis from Mark G.

I am getting a paywall, but would be interested to read.

@naem, here it is:

Trump Is Unlikely to Abandon Ukraine—and Might Dangerously Escalate the War

The former president admires Putin and sees the Ukraine war as a burden on the U.S. But if re-elected, he would have powerful reasons to prevent a Russian victory.

If re-elected, would Donald Trump end U.S. support for Ukraine? He certainly sounds as if he would. On the campaign trail, he routinely describes Ukraine as a burden to the U.S. and declares his eagerness to see the war end, which he promises to achieve through negotiations in a mere 24 hours. Trump has also made clear his admiration for Vladimir Putin and dismissive attitude toward the European Union. Many observers worry that once back in office, he would condone, tacitly or even directly, Russia’s efforts to dominate Ukraine.

But it wouldn’t be an easy move for Trump to make, and there is reason to believe that his rhetoric on Ukraine is more political bluster than plan of action.

Trump’s dislike of Ukraine has many sources. It stems in part from his first impeachment trial in 2019, when he was charged with interfering in the 2020 election by putting pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to announce an investigation of Joe Biden. The subsequent war in Ukraine has provided ammunition for one of Trump’s longstanding foreign policy complaints: that the U.S. does too much and Europe too little for Europe’s security. He has even suggested that the U.S. wouldn’t come to the defense of allies who don’t do their share for NATO. And of course there is the politics of aid to Ukraine: Democrats champion Ukraine and revile Russia, inspiring some in Trump’s orbit to do the opposite—to make Russia a synonym for strong leadership and to decry Ukraine as corrupt and parasitical.

Against this backdrop, it is instructive to scrutinize Trump’s actual record on Russia and Ukraine. Much of what he said about the two countries on the campaign trail in 2016 had little or no bearing on the actions he took as president. Unlike his administration’s stance on China, where he redirected U.S. policy in word and deed, on Russia and Ukraine Trump behaved like a modestly hawkish Republican president.

Between 2017 and 2021, he made no concessions on Ukrainian territory: He didn’t recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea or its military presence in Eastern Ukraine. Trump also broke with Obama administration policy by sending lethal military assistance to Ukraine, including Javelin antitank missiles, which were invaluable to Ukraine in the early stages of Russia’s 2022 invasion. Two new countries, Montenegro and North Macedonia, were admitted to NATO with the Trump administration’s approval. In Syria, the U.S. took military action against Russia in 2018, killing several hundred Russian mercenaries.

Even if Trump were truly intent on abandoning Ukraine, he would have to wrestle with his own party. Though he has certainly redrawn GOP foreign policy over the last eight years, Republicans have often defied him on Russia and Ukraine. In 2017, the GOP-led Congress levied sanctions against Russia that the White House didn’t want, and today, a strong vein of pro-Ukraine sentiment persists among Republican lawmakers and within the Republican electorate.

Highly sensitive to this dynamic, Trump has accommodated it and is aware of how much the pullout from Afghanistan damaged Biden’s popularity. Before Speaker of the House Mike Johnson went ahead with a funding package for Ukraine in April, in defiance of much of the Republican caucus, he made a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago, where he presumably got a green light from the former president.

For Trump, an additional hurdle to abandoning Ukraine would be the war itself. As president, Trump never had to deal directly with war. Between 2017 and 2021, Russia wasn’t on the march. By early 2025, Ukraine—and with it, the U.S.—could be on the cusp of losing Europe’s first major war since 1945. Defeat would be devastating for the people of Ukraine and for European security and would deal a serious blow to America’s standing in the world. Blaming previous administrations for this calamity would only go so far. If it unfolded with Trump in the White House, it would force him to contend with his cardinal fear in politics and in life: being seen as a loser.

Because of continuing U.S. support for Ukraine and the impossibility of accepting such a humiliating defeat, a second Trump term would likely follow one of two scenarios: The war could simply go on as it did before, or the U.S. could become much more deeply involved.

The first possibility would be continuity. Fearful of defeat, Trump could maintain Biden administration policies on Ukraine, refusing to push Ukraine toward negotiations and continuing to provide various kinds of military aid—weaponry as well as intelligence and targeting information. In a second term, Trump’s relations with Western Europe would surely be as bad as they were in his first, but his antipathy for the continent was never driven by Ukraine or Russia. He tends to be more fond of Eastern Europe and chose Warsaw for his first European speech as president. In 2025, while feuding with risk-averse Germany, Trump might find common ground with anti-Russian Poland.

The second scenario for a Trump presidency is one of steady escalation. Responding to the battlefield, Trump might change the U.S. calculus and furnish Ukraine with weapons systems that the Biden administration was reluctant to allow. He might let Kyiv use U.S.-supplied weapons on Russian territory.

Like Putin, Trump might refuse to declare tactical nuclear weapons off limits in Ukraine. Trump could do this to strengthen his hand at the negotiating table, as a bluff or just to separate himself from his predecessors. He could approach the question of nuclear war not according to the cautious old orthodoxies but according to his own unknowable rules.

Alternately, Trump might escalate without wishing to escalate. His anarchic style of communication creates risks, and he doesn’t work through layers of professional staff, quietly developing strategies and then deploying them with discipline. He shoots from the hip, most often via social media. Unable to end the war in 24 hours, Trump might up the ante, and Putin might respond in kind.

Trump and Putin could become prisoners of their respective appetites for confrontation. World War I wasn’t a world war because any of the great powers wanted it. It was a world war because none of the great powers could control the military actions provoked by the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. Leaders got drawn into a conflict whose scale none of them could have imagined at its start.

On the war in Ukraine, voters have a choice in 2024 that is not simply binary, between supporting and not supporting Ukraine, staying the course and cutting loose. It is more probably a choice between two different ways of supporting Ukraine: one that is predictable and operates according to careful assumptions and one that is ad hoc and thus dangerously prone to escalation.

Whoever is elected in November, the war stands little chance of ending in the months and years to come. Because of the election, however, an entirely new phase of the war might begin in late January.

Michael Kimmage is a professor of history at Catholic University and held the Russia/Ukraine portfolio on the policy planning staff at the U.S. State Department from 2014 to 2016. His most recent book is “Collisions: The War in Ukraine and the Origins of the New Global Instability.

@defencebrink

Britain faces the most dangerous threat from colluding authoritarian states since the end of the Cold War.

PM set to warn Brits today on the above in a major speech at 11am.

Whilst I'll be interested to see what Rishi Sunak says don't forget he's now 99.999999% in campaign mode and everything he says should be viewed in that light. It's expected to be a major campaign speech, not much else. I'm expecting lots of nonsense about how only the Tories can save us...

Yes that's exactly what it's going to be

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-12-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as Russian Minister of Defense on May 12, moving Shoigu to the position of Security Council Secretary in place of Nikolai Patrushev. These high-level reshuffles following the Russian presidential election strongly suggest that Putin is taking significant steps towards mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to support a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO.
• Belousov's nearly decade-long tenure as an economic minister in the Russian federal government and his more recent involvement managing various domestic DIB innovation and drone projects, prepare him well to lead the struggling Russian MoD apparatus.
• Shoigu's replacement of Patrushev as Security Council Secretary is in line with Putin's general pattern of quietly sidelining high-level security officials by granting them peripheral roles within the Russian security sphere rather than simply firing them.
• Russian offensive efforts to seize Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) are in large part a consequence of the tacit Western policy that Ukrainian forces cannot use Western-provided systems to strike legitimate military targets within Russia.
• Ukrainian forces continue to conduct repeat strikes on Russian oil and defense industrial infrastructure, prompting Russian milbloggers to complain about Russian forces' clear and continued inability to defend against these strikes.
• Several German politicians from different political parties expressed support for using NATO air defense systems stationed in NATO member states to shoot down Russian drones over western Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
• Former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and ultranationalist figure Dmitry Rogozin highlighted Russian forces' continued difficulty repelling Ukrainian drones on the frontline.

Good analysis of the reshuffle: tldrussia.substack.com/p/the-foxes-and-the-bears?utm_campaign=post&triedRedirect=true

There seem to have been a fair few rumours about poor defences around Kharkiv, in some instances so poor that Russian soldiers were simply able to walk through them. Now the Commander responsible for Kharkiv has been sacked. Very worrying for those in the region.

I also think that the ISW's analysis of the Putin reshuffle are interesting, in that it may be in preparation for a future confrontation with NATO - particularly the appointment of a civilian with economic experience to the Defence minister role.

Russia is using Chinese-made light logistics on the battlefield

Wonder where Patrushev is uneasily I doubt Putin will just discard him.

Incredible numbers of Russian dead today.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Putin appointed ex-Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as the secretary of Russia's security council. Shoigu is replacing Nikolai Patrushev, who has been the council's secretary since 2008. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-proposes-firing-shoigu-appointing-new-defense-minister/

⚡️Putin's spokesman: Belousov appointed defense minister to integrate military-industrial complex into economy. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-proposes-firing-shoigu-appointing-new-defense-minister/
Peskov said on May 12 that Putin had decided to appoint Andrei Belousov as defense minister since the “ministry should be open to innovation and progressive ideas.”
He went on to praise Belousov's performance as economy minister and cited this as a reason for his appointment. Commenting on Belousov's tasks, he said that Russia's defense and security budget had risen from 3% to 6.7% of the GDP, and it's important for the Kremlin "to integrate the military-industrial complex into the country's economy."

⚡️Media: Russia's new defense minister Andrei Belousov supports boosting military spending.
He started his career as a protégé of former Economy Minister German Gref, a free-market liberal, and served as a deputy economy minister in 2006-2008.
Belousov was Russia's economy minister in 2012-2013, an aide to Putin in 2013-2020, and first deputy prime minister in 2020-2024. He is considered a supporter of boosting military spending and mobilizing the country's economy for the war effort, according to Russian independent publication Verstka. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-proposes-firing-shoigu-appointing-new-defense-minister/

⚡️General Staff: Battle for Vovchansk ongoing Russia achieving 'tactical success.' https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-battle-for-vovchansk-ongoing-russia-achieving-tactical-success/
Ukraine's General Staff said it is mounting a defensive operation to halt Russian advances that have breached Ukraine's defenses. Additional reserves are being deployed to the area in order to "stabilize the situation."

⚡️Construction of fortifications https://kyivindependent.com/fortifications-vovchansk-extremely-difficult/ around Vovchansk was 'difficult,' due to constant Russian shelling, Tamaz Gambarashvili, the head of Vovchansk City Military Administration, told Radio Svoboda on May 13.

5,762 civilians in Kharkiv Oblast have been evacuated from their homes amid heavy fighting in the region, Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported on May 13. https://kyivindependent.com/over-5-000-civilians-evacuated-from-kharkiv-oblast/

⚡️Protests continue overnight in Tbilisi ahead of final vote on foreign agents bill.
Thousands of protesters remained on the streets of Tbilisi overnight on May 12 ahead of the final reading of the controversial "foreign agents law" in Georgia's parliament on May 13. https://kyivindependent.com/protests-continue-overnight-in-tbilisi-ahead-of-final-vote/ [this just isn't being reported in the press the way it should be]

⚡️ Russia to increase taxes on struggling energy giant Gazprom this year. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-to-increase-taxes-on-struggling-energy-giant-gazprom-this-year/

⚡️Lithuanian presidential election to go to runoff https://kyivindependent.com/lithuanian-presidential-election-to-go-to-runoff-incumbent-president-ahead/ incumbent president ahead. Incumbent President Gitanas Nauseda placed first in the initial round of voting with 44.2 percent of the vote, finishing well ahead of his competitor incumbent Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte at 19.7 percent.

⚡️Ukrainian Military intelligence identifies Russian soldiers behind cruise missile strikes on civilian infrastructure. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-identifies-russian-military-personnel-behind-cruise-missile-strikes/

⚡️South Korean intelligence: North Korea suspected https://kyivindependent.com/south-korean-intelligence-north-korea-suspected-of-sending-russia-weapons-made-in-1970s/ of supplying Russia with weapons made in 1970s. [So fairly modern by the standards of some Russian kit]

⚡️Government: Russia attacks 106 infrastructure facilities in Ukraine in one day. Thousands of households in 7 oblasts are suffering power outages due to Russian attacks, the Energy Ministry reported.
⚡️Explosions rock Sumy, Kharkiv.
⚡️Multiple explosions heard in Donetsk Oblast.
⚡️1 killed, 2 injured in Russian attacks on Sumy Oblast.

⚡️Update: Death toll in Belgorod apartment building collapse rises to 15. [Russian claims a Ukrainian strike; others claim a gas explosion]
⚡️Russian governor claims fire at substation in Lipetsk Oblast after overnight drone attack.
⚡️SBU drones attack oil depot, substation in 2 Russian regions overnight.

1740 people dead! (est)

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

• MAY 13, 2024

■ Record casualties (old was 1,380 set on Oct 20, 2023) ■ Equipment losses above 7-day average; biggest tank losses of 2024 so far ■ Greatly improved strike ratio; big drop in 🇷🇺 strikes ■ Poternet: +368 🇷🇺 names added as KIA

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Up to five battalions of the Russian Federation are advancing on Vovchansk, with fighting persisting outside the city, as reported by the press service of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They also stated that the Russians are not expecting losses, having reportedly eliminated more than 100 occupiers per day in the direction.

Russian military captures civilians from Vovchansk in Kharkiv region.
According to the investigation, during the Russian army's offensive, the Russians forcibly held and continue to hold people in the basement. The locals were taken there on May 11.

The Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has adopted the tactics of the US Air Force from the Vietnam War in order to destroy Russian air defense systems on the front line.
Business Insider writes about this after studying videos of flights by Ukrainian military aircraft.
The tactic, called "wild weasel," involves pilots allowing themselves to be detected by enemy air defense radars. The radar waves are then tracked back to their source, and the detected coordinates are then attacked by AGM-88 (HARM) missiles. These missiles are capable of detecting enemy radars and hitting them even after the radar systems are turned off.
The U.S. has used HARM for this purpose in Libya, Iraq, and the former Yugoslavia.

North Korea may have sent around 6,700 containers of missiles to Russia, — Yonhap News Agency. These are mainly artillery ammunition and missiles for multiple launch rocket systems.

According to El País, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit Madrid in the coming days to sign a bilateral security agreement with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

The fact that Raiffeisen Bank has been operating and thriving in Russia for the third year of the war illustrates that the West has not succeeded in significantly undermining the Russian economy. At the same time, the bank itself is trapped, — Financial Times.
The publication notes that over the past three years, the profit earned by the Russian division of the Austrian bank has exceeded all other operations of the Raiffeisen group.

The US Department of Agriculture has released a forecast for the yield of grain crops in Ukraine, highlighting their significant export potential for the country's agricultural sector.
According to American experts, this year's grain harvest is projected to reach no more than 21 million tons of wheat and 27 million tons of corn. Additionally, nearly 33 million tons are expected to consist of fodder crops among cereals. This forecast indicates a decrease in harvest compared to last year's figures.
Overall, experts anticipate a decline in the corn stocks in Ukraine due to a reduction in the area under this crop and lower productivity.

According to a YouGov survey commissioned by dpa, the majority of Germans do not believe in the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO countries.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russian actions in Kharkiv oblast followed a schedule known to Ukrainian intelligence, with both leadership and command informed, — DIU spokesman Yusov.

Amid the offensive of Russian troops in the north of Kharkiv oblast, the commander of the Khortytsia military unit has been changed - Brigadier General Mykhailo Drapaty has been appointed instead of Yuriy Galushkin, Ukrinform reports.

Compared to the preceding six months, Ukrainian air defense has intercepted far fewer Russian missiles, the WSJ reports
Thus, over the past 6 months, air defense has managed to shoot down 46% of missiles, and in the second half of 2023 - 73%.

🇪🇺 The European Union has approved a "trade visa-free regime" for Ukraine, meaning that Ukraine will trade with the EU for another year without quotas and duties.

Alexey Milchakov, war criminal, co-leader and co-founder of the Rusich Group, that operated from 2022 within the Wagner Group, calls for the killing of prisoners of war
He says that he hasn't taken Ukrainians prisoner since 2014, but killed them right away.
Milchakov is known for torturing and executing Ukrainian prisoners of war. He has repeatedly been photographed against the backdrop of dead Ukrainian soldiers. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/20905

Soldiers of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade shot down a Russian Ka-52 Alligator helicopter.

Czechia has provided Ukraine with almost 60% of its heavy weapons, and they are already in Ukraine. Norway has committed just over 50%, half of which is already destroying Russians
In total, NATO and the EU have provided Ukraine with 10% of howitzers, 6% of MLRS, and 5% of tanks.

Incredible numbers of Russian dead today.

It is rather astonishing. It's likely due to the Russian tactics in and around their offensive on Kharkiv. They are attacking in small groups, which is a very poor strategy as small groups of soldiers are inherently exposed on all sides and have no support around them. The reason they do so is simple. After the loss of the better trained units early in the war, and the shortage of competent mid level and non-commissioned officers, they've lost the ability to attack in large groups.

If you think about great historical battles in history, they've involved thousands of troops, acting in a unified manner. That's much harder to do than it looks. It's easy to get a platoon or a squad to do something, because one officer can see everyone involved and what they are doing or failing to do. There's just one level of command. When you have different types of troops acting under different commands and in different locations, coordinated action requires several levels of command and effective lateral communication and coordination among them. It also requires endless exercises and field training to uncover and overcome problems. You have to think about things like the fact that your artillery can't move as fast as your tanks and your infantry has to keep up with everyone else. It's truly much harder than it looks.

We can all be thankful that the Russians no longer seem capable of fighting this way, and are reduced to "meat grinder" tactics with inexperienced conscripts.

More on the latest aid package here.

There's some speculation that the Russian offensive around Kharkiv is a diversion intended to draw Ukrainian reserves away from other areas like the Donbas.

I'm not convinced. The Ukrainians have access to American satellite and signals intel regarding the Russian disposition of forces in the area and, to some extent, their intentions. And the Ukrainians have to honor the threat. If it is a feint and they ignore it, the Russians will turn it into their main line of attack.

I do agree that the Russians likely don't want to occupy Kharkiv. The city is too big and the forces they have in the area are insufficient to engage in the urban warfare necessary to take it. The real threat is them getting into artillery range and leveling the city from a distance, as they have done in so many other places.

The Forbes article is still worth a read.

Forbes Business Aerospace & Defense It’s Possible The Russian Army Is Tricking The Ukrainian Army With A Fake Offensive - Russian incursions north of Kharkiv appear to be a feint

From a volunteer in Kharkiv, also known to Blueshoes and Ducks...

Hi Hills!
Yes it's been very turbulent in Kharkiv lately, since the 10th of this month Russians have been trying to break through to Kharkiv and Volchansk, and they are having some success, this is due to the lack of shells from the Ukrainian defenders and also due to corruption and appendage in Ukraine. It is also questionable that many areas where the Russians have broken through have been demined for unknown reasons.
As of today, the Ukrainian defenders have managed to stop the Russians 21 kilometres from Kharkiv. And the situation is more or less stable.
Well, people like me continue to help the defenders of Ukraine.
Thank you, Hills, for your support and for your interest in the situation in Ukraine. I am very grateful to you!

@Hillsmakeyoustrong thank you for the update from Kharkiv. The situation there sounds like it is getting increasingly tense.

The volunteers are based in Kharkiv, having moved their families to a safer area. They work non-stop to deliver humanitarian aid and ferry supplies to the defenders. They must be taking great personal risks and making enormous sacrifices, but, at least on facebook, don't complain, remain positive and looking forward to the day of victory. They must be totally exhausted. Don't know how they keep going.

We must not forget them ever.

On March 26th 2024, he wrote that he had driven 67,348 km since the start of the war. Its a dangerous life taking food, drones, medicines to the frontlines. The car needs constant repairs which he pays for himself, along with the fuel. They really are the unsung heroes of the war.

A thorough report by Chatham House (I recommend reading the full pdf over the summary):

Three foreign policy priorities for the next UK government

www.chathamhouse.org/2024/05/three-foreign-policy-priorities-next-uk-government

Well now we know where Patrushev has gone - Putin makes former intelligence chief Nikolai Patrushev his aide – POLITICO Analysis that I've seen so far seems to agree that its quite a demotion for him.

I also see that Putin will visit China next week. Obviously concerns around what will be discussed but it's giving me real vibes of Putin being subordinate to Xi, given that he's expected to travel to China when Xi was so recently in Europe and could quite easily have been the one to visit Russia.

I think Patrushev will be working more closely with China on security and defence by the sound of what analysts on Twitter are saying.

On the trip to China here's some analysis from the FT this morning (sharing link):

Oops link here: on.ft.com/3yjYFOs